Ok we have to rely on a number of factors that you wouldn’t wish on your own team to happen to Palace or Bolton, whereby they go do a Forest style melt down and try their hardest to avoid promotion. It can happen, we’ve all seen the way the top of the table have tripped over this year, but it’s still more unlikely than seeing as pinch berth number in the play offs. That said, automatic promotion from League One 5 years ago seemed more unlikely.
You can’t help but notice the missed opportunity that is this season and this last month, the manager of the month curse really striking home hard on Billy, and how much we could come to rue those hit posts versus Barnsley a couple of weeks ago.
But following our first win in an age, we suddenly could make it again. I stress could. I still think it unlikely, and it means we can play a fairly reckless game against Leicester whereby it’s not in our hands so let’s just go and play a wildly entertaining game rather than making sure we don’t lose. After all, we do potentially need goals too depending on the various outcomes (Tonight with Palace playing Millwall being another)
I feel like after every game we lurch from emotion to emotion at the moment, never quite sure where this season is going to take us. It really has been a rollercoaster, and one we’re not sure yet where we get off.
But as I say it makes Saturday’s spectacle hopefully, yes we do need to win, but it’s all relative. We could do everything in our power and not make it, so let’s give the fans something to cheer, play with the blinkers off and go for it. It could be a thing of beauty. Maybe a striker could score.
I mean it can work both ways, we really shouldn’t be here. For one where we were 2/3 months ago there’s no way we should be discussing the playoffs. But then again, where we were 3 or 4 weeks ago, there’s no way we should we discuss not making the playoffs. It is exactly that kind of situation. And it’s one that no matter what occurs Saturday I don’t think the fans can complain. The dark days of McLeish in January is what cost us any chance of going up. Not anything in the mean time. Would we be up there with George Boyd, I doubt he’d have made the difference, but that said his none signing has made all the difference (as I said in the article “In praise of George Boyd’s Eyes, just search for it)
Beating Millwall was vital, as had we gone into these games with nothing to play for, it would have been horrible seeing Leicester turn up with at least something on their plate. They are even more unlikely than us to get into the playoffs, and with all their funding over the last 2 years that is laughable. £5 million centre halves, Sven, and all that. They shouldn’t be in this situation, but that’s the Championship, you can’t buy success. It’s unforgiving like that.
So yeah, in essence it is still all on and all to play for, but only if Bolton (or Palace twice) bottle it and we sneak in.
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
The International Breaks Killer Effect
I said it at the time that I worried the International break would kill our momentum, I’ve mentioned it at length during many posts in the post game synopsis lately, but there are the cold hard facts. Since the break we, out of the playoff contenders are on the second worse form. Only Palace are in a worse vein of form than us.
To look at it in context Charlton, though unlikely to make the playoffs, being 4/5 points off the chase with 2 go are the inform side in the pack. I have looked at what the various teams have done since the break, and though hardly any are on stellar form it has completely killed our momentum. And it’s not as if we were the only squad to lose people to international squads, we all pretty much have squads with them in.
Although no-one completely recovered from the break form wise, we had ours shot to pieces. 0 wins and 4 draws since then with 2 losses. We had that run of games before the break which were all wins, and that includes the likes of Hull. Post break and we can’t beat anyone.
That 2 week break allowed teams to prepare and understand our game. Additionally, if you won 3 days or 7days previously you have a psychological edge. Going into games after 2 weeks, well it’s almost a clean slate in terms of that Psychologically the last game was so long ago that a break either sets you back, as in our case, or apparently sets you free and gives you a fresh start as with Charlton.
Going purely on a post break table of playoff chasers, it looks like this.
1. Charlton 14points
2. Bolton 12 Points
3. Brighton 10p
4. Watford 8p
5. Leicester 6p
6. Forest 4p
7. Palace 2p
So by that basis, if we’re playing for 4 spots, and you almost rule of Charlton due to distance behind (and I’m including them only as an illustration of a point) we would deserve to miss out with Palace. Palace have admittedly in that time played only 5 games whilst the rest have all played 6, so it might even be that we’d be bottom of that table if based on 6 matches.
So it’s obvious to me that the break killed the momentum we had built, and ultimately may cost us. There’s no guarantee of that of course, it’s also quite possible we’d have started losing sooner, but the whole naive argument that it’s the break the players wanted is and was frankly ridiculous. When you hear anything players say when they are on form games can’t come soon enough, not let’s have a nice long gap. Think of anything you do in any sphere of life, when you’re on fire or in the zone you want and need to keep going. Any kind of break in that will cause a proverbial bump in the road.
I don’t think our great form would have carried on indefinitely, but look at the evidence in front of us. Failing to beat mediocre teams, whimpering performances. Before the break we were on the cusp of history and a new all time winning run. Now we are in the worst run of form this season (if we count games without a win.) Nothing’s changed. The personnel are the same, but that emotion and that wave of optimism that was created were allowed to end due to the time off. We have retreated back to the McLeish games now. Davies got us motivated, set us up on fire. But that could only last so long.
Yes people and Davies said we had looked leggy before the break, but no worse than other teams, and that’s what a squad is for. To be able to cover or rotate to rest the odd players. The fact is it wasn’t really a break to several key players, who were international duty, and who picked up knocks (Lansbury) or got punched by Suarez (Jara) There is still lots of travel and training to cover for. And some people seem to think the rest of the players didn’t train and just have their feet up whilst colleagues jet around the world. It’s scarily naive.
All we need is to break this slump and win the next two games, which is somewhat against the odds now to hopefully break back into the top 6. Though fate is out of our hands, we can certainly pile pressure on this Saturday with a win. The worry is a losing mentality has set in, but that said, the evidence of last week is they haven’t given up. Yes we didn’t win, but we created those chances and but for the width of a post would have won. It isn’t over till the fat lady sings, and I don’t hear any singing yet.
To look at it in context Charlton, though unlikely to make the playoffs, being 4/5 points off the chase with 2 go are the inform side in the pack. I have looked at what the various teams have done since the break, and though hardly any are on stellar form it has completely killed our momentum. And it’s not as if we were the only squad to lose people to international squads, we all pretty much have squads with them in.
Although no-one completely recovered from the break form wise, we had ours shot to pieces. 0 wins and 4 draws since then with 2 losses. We had that run of games before the break which were all wins, and that includes the likes of Hull. Post break and we can’t beat anyone.
That 2 week break allowed teams to prepare and understand our game. Additionally, if you won 3 days or 7days previously you have a psychological edge. Going into games after 2 weeks, well it’s almost a clean slate in terms of that Psychologically the last game was so long ago that a break either sets you back, as in our case, or apparently sets you free and gives you a fresh start as with Charlton.
Going purely on a post break table of playoff chasers, it looks like this.
1. Charlton 14points
2. Bolton 12 Points
3. Brighton 10p
4. Watford 8p
5. Leicester 6p
6. Forest 4p
7. Palace 2p
So by that basis, if we’re playing for 4 spots, and you almost rule of Charlton due to distance behind (and I’m including them only as an illustration of a point) we would deserve to miss out with Palace. Palace have admittedly in that time played only 5 games whilst the rest have all played 6, so it might even be that we’d be bottom of that table if based on 6 matches.
So it’s obvious to me that the break killed the momentum we had built, and ultimately may cost us. There’s no guarantee of that of course, it’s also quite possible we’d have started losing sooner, but the whole naive argument that it’s the break the players wanted is and was frankly ridiculous. When you hear anything players say when they are on form games can’t come soon enough, not let’s have a nice long gap. Think of anything you do in any sphere of life, when you’re on fire or in the zone you want and need to keep going. Any kind of break in that will cause a proverbial bump in the road.
I don’t think our great form would have carried on indefinitely, but look at the evidence in front of us. Failing to beat mediocre teams, whimpering performances. Before the break we were on the cusp of history and a new all time winning run. Now we are in the worst run of form this season (if we count games without a win.) Nothing’s changed. The personnel are the same, but that emotion and that wave of optimism that was created were allowed to end due to the time off. We have retreated back to the McLeish games now. Davies got us motivated, set us up on fire. But that could only last so long.
Yes people and Davies said we had looked leggy before the break, but no worse than other teams, and that’s what a squad is for. To be able to cover or rotate to rest the odd players. The fact is it wasn’t really a break to several key players, who were international duty, and who picked up knocks (Lansbury) or got punched by Suarez (Jara) There is still lots of travel and training to cover for. And some people seem to think the rest of the players didn’t train and just have their feet up whilst colleagues jet around the world. It’s scarily naive.
All we need is to break this slump and win the next two games, which is somewhat against the odds now to hopefully break back into the top 6. Though fate is out of our hands, we can certainly pile pressure on this Saturday with a win. The worry is a losing mentality has set in, but that said, the evidence of last week is they haven’t given up. Yes we didn’t win, but we created those chances and but for the width of a post would have won. It isn’t over till the fat lady sings, and I don’t hear any singing yet.
Monday, April 22, 2013
Playoff Hopes Hanging by a Thread
If anyone of 4 shots that hit the woodwork had been an inch or two in another direction the whole outlook of this piece would be different, for then we’d have fate on our side, and would only have to make sure we win and that would enough alone. Instead we now need to win AND for other teams to lose. This is now a tall ordeal with 2 games left.
That said it’s happened before. 2 games out when were promoted from league One we thought it an impossible task. Surely both Carlisle and Doncaster couldn’t slip up, but surely they did, and it allowed us for that most unlikely of promotions that sunny day 5 years ago.
It is by such margins that seasons are made or destroyed, that a shot bounces in; a keeper manages to keep the merest of finger tips to the ball. Both Reidy and Sharp crashed balls against the base of the right hand post of Luke Steele. Frustrating because on these occasions we had beaten a keeper playing well, but even then something denied us the glory of a win which would have changed every emotion.
And that’s the fine margin. We went home feeling deflated. Not angry like sometimes, not depressed, just deflated, like we all knew this was possible, but hoped it wouldn’t happen, but strangely acceptant when it did. For that reason I think the crowd never turned like it could. Yes it seemed to almost turn nasty, but sometimes we’d have heard boos, and yes there were a few, but mostly we knew the jig was up, that we should never even really have been in the mix for the playoffs and yes it’s all over (except most in the back on their heads say that in public, but in private retain a feeling of it’s still possible, but I can’t speak it aloud, or I’ll curse it)
Barnsley to be fair weren’t as bad as they were at Oakwell, which was pretty shocking, but they still barely offered anything. Every attack in the last 20 minutes I expected them to pox a winner somehow just to rub slat in wounds, but thankful the ignominy of losing to such poor opposition didn’t happen.
What scares me is the way our strikers have simply stopped working. No goals in earnest for a while. Now the middle can’t score either it’s all rather annoying. Guedioura had a few long rangers that were actually on target but they were relatively simple saves for the keeper. The close range headers from Lansbury, or Sharp were pretty much at him from point blank, but still needed to be saved. Yes they look good, but if your keeper concedes them it’s embarrassing.
If we miss the playoffs by 2 points, and that’s certainly possible, this will be chalked as a big miss. It really should have been a win. But to single out games as disappointments in that way is always a little foolhardy. You could say the same about other games. And what about those last gasp points we really never should have got in several games recently before the rot set in?
It just seems we peaked too early, but when we embarked on that run of wins it seriously didn’t seem like that was possible. That’s why I mention we shouldn’t even be there because the way the rest of the promotion chasing teams imploded at the same time was ridiculous. I do worry for the teams going up this year that they aren’t good enough. But consider the teams who came down. They haven’t exactly set this division alight, so how big is that gap? I’ve heard several national journalist say it’s a poor division because in the occasional game they’ve seen it’s been low standard, and I won’t lie it happens, but the same with the Premiership. Is Reading v Wigan any higher standard than Watford v Bolton? Probably not.
All in all yet again frustration reigns at the City Ground, and it looks like another year will pass where we don’t sit at footballs top table. It’s 14 years now since we were relegated. There’s a generation of our fans who have never seen us play top flight football. Never mind be competitive at that level. It’ll likely be at least 15 before they ever do.
That said it’s happened before. 2 games out when were promoted from league One we thought it an impossible task. Surely both Carlisle and Doncaster couldn’t slip up, but surely they did, and it allowed us for that most unlikely of promotions that sunny day 5 years ago.
It is by such margins that seasons are made or destroyed, that a shot bounces in; a keeper manages to keep the merest of finger tips to the ball. Both Reidy and Sharp crashed balls against the base of the right hand post of Luke Steele. Frustrating because on these occasions we had beaten a keeper playing well, but even then something denied us the glory of a win which would have changed every emotion.
And that’s the fine margin. We went home feeling deflated. Not angry like sometimes, not depressed, just deflated, like we all knew this was possible, but hoped it wouldn’t happen, but strangely acceptant when it did. For that reason I think the crowd never turned like it could. Yes it seemed to almost turn nasty, but sometimes we’d have heard boos, and yes there were a few, but mostly we knew the jig was up, that we should never even really have been in the mix for the playoffs and yes it’s all over (except most in the back on their heads say that in public, but in private retain a feeling of it’s still possible, but I can’t speak it aloud, or I’ll curse it)
Barnsley to be fair weren’t as bad as they were at Oakwell, which was pretty shocking, but they still barely offered anything. Every attack in the last 20 minutes I expected them to pox a winner somehow just to rub slat in wounds, but thankful the ignominy of losing to such poor opposition didn’t happen.
What scares me is the way our strikers have simply stopped working. No goals in earnest for a while. Now the middle can’t score either it’s all rather annoying. Guedioura had a few long rangers that were actually on target but they were relatively simple saves for the keeper. The close range headers from Lansbury, or Sharp were pretty much at him from point blank, but still needed to be saved. Yes they look good, but if your keeper concedes them it’s embarrassing.
If we miss the playoffs by 2 points, and that’s certainly possible, this will be chalked as a big miss. It really should have been a win. But to single out games as disappointments in that way is always a little foolhardy. You could say the same about other games. And what about those last gasp points we really never should have got in several games recently before the rot set in?
It just seems we peaked too early, but when we embarked on that run of wins it seriously didn’t seem like that was possible. That’s why I mention we shouldn’t even be there because the way the rest of the promotion chasing teams imploded at the same time was ridiculous. I do worry for the teams going up this year that they aren’t good enough. But consider the teams who came down. They haven’t exactly set this division alight, so how big is that gap? I’ve heard several national journalist say it’s a poor division because in the occasional game they’ve seen it’s been low standard, and I won’t lie it happens, but the same with the Premiership. Is Reading v Wigan any higher standard than Watford v Bolton? Probably not.
All in all yet again frustration reigns at the City Ground, and it looks like another year will pass where we don’t sit at footballs top table. It’s 14 years now since we were relegated. There’s a generation of our fans who have never seen us play top flight football. Never mind be competitive at that level. It’ll likely be at least 15 before they ever do.
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Boro Defeat Ramps Up Pressure on Barnsley match
What was a run of mill league game on Saturday has a whole new load of pressure now. Following on from 2 defeats, W9which ironically as it follows our longest run undefeated of the season, now leads into our longest run with a win this season) means that the game has a new must win status.
For if we fail to win, and additionally everyone else picks up points our season would effectively be over. Should we win then we might find ourselves thrust back into the top 6 with everyone still on. The top of table is still that open.
The Middlesbrough defeat is frustrating for me because we are limping now. Boro have been in awful form in 2013 and had only won once since the turn of the year. Naturally they remember how to play versus us. But I identified this much on the forum saying this precisely the type of game we don’t want.
That crest of a wave we were on is now a wave that has broken. Now we risk drowning in our season and hopes. The Cardiff defeat always looked on. To be honest what we saw as triumphant late draws which symbolised that we just won’t be defeated were actual signs of the beginning of a down turn in form. Because we had been on that rich vein of form previously we didn’t see it like that, we were extending our great run, rather than embarking on what was the run of games without a win. The trouble is this seems to have been a change we didn’t notice.
As I said previously following the Cardiff defeat the international break was awful timing. I said it at the time of the break too, but [people shouted me down as being wrong. We were in fact going to be even better after a break. I couldn’t see the logic then, and now I laugh at it. “We will better after the rest, all the players invigorated” I was told. Well frankly why does that makes us more inclined to win? We weren’t the only team without a game; the whole division had the same so EVERYONE had a break. People couldn’t see this. They get so blinkered by Forest they only see the benefit to us. We will be rested, they will be rusty. Such theory is bonkers. As is the fact that people couldn’t see it breaking momentum.
The Middlesbrough game was the wrong match at the wrong time. We needed an easy home game (this Barnsley match) following the first defeat for Davies. But with a tricky away game, and question marks sneaking in came back to back wins. Now the challenge is to reinvigorate that morale. The players need picking up. If we don’t beat Barnsley, I don’t care about the point’s connotations, the morale will be spent. The players will have been defeated in mind and body. Should we win that game then the boost could carry us back up there. Even if we win and still remain outside the playoffs it would hopefully have gee'd us up to a point whereby we keep ourselves in with a chance going into that Leicester game.
I’ve said it, other bloggers have said, people on Twitter said it. To be where we were at the time was a victory itself, never mind had we made it by the last game. We really have no right to be in with a shout considering where we were, but lo and behold we made it to 5th. That said if we had no right, then Bolton are riding all their luck being in the top few as they were even further behind. Did we peak too soon? Possibly, but then the run of fixtures in late March early April would always be hard to maintain momentum over. Playing a number of teams chasing the dream was always a hard prospect. And so it proved. So I wouldn’t say we peaked too early, you can only do what you can against what’s put in front of you. It happened to be a run of out of sort’s teams, and teams struggling.
Considering our remaining away game is against Millwall whose season now they lost in the FA Cup semi final is over they have nothing to play for. Those teams can be dangerous. Playing with the shackles off, it is simply for fun. Bu tit can go the other way, how do you motivate players who had a Wembley performance recently and had the biggest game of their season at their feet and messed it up and have nothing else to play for? It is eminently winnable. And so we should. But it remains as I say tricky. Leicester have hard games so would easily slip up, and both Palace and Brighton are playing teams struggling against relegation. Those are notoriously hard games you want to avoid. Bolton’s looks the best run in, they play Cardiff who might well be in party mode and Middlesbrough and Blackpool who by then will have nothing to play for.
Last week I’d have said don’t look at other teams, we have fate in our hands, now we don’t, but we still just have to win our games and hope for the best. Remember when went up from League One? That was completely against the odds.
For if we fail to win, and additionally everyone else picks up points our season would effectively be over. Should we win then we might find ourselves thrust back into the top 6 with everyone still on. The top of table is still that open.
The Middlesbrough defeat is frustrating for me because we are limping now. Boro have been in awful form in 2013 and had only won once since the turn of the year. Naturally they remember how to play versus us. But I identified this much on the forum saying this precisely the type of game we don’t want.
That crest of a wave we were on is now a wave that has broken. Now we risk drowning in our season and hopes. The Cardiff defeat always looked on. To be honest what we saw as triumphant late draws which symbolised that we just won’t be defeated were actual signs of the beginning of a down turn in form. Because we had been on that rich vein of form previously we didn’t see it like that, we were extending our great run, rather than embarking on what was the run of games without a win. The trouble is this seems to have been a change we didn’t notice.
As I said previously following the Cardiff defeat the international break was awful timing. I said it at the time of the break too, but [people shouted me down as being wrong. We were in fact going to be even better after a break. I couldn’t see the logic then, and now I laugh at it. “We will better after the rest, all the players invigorated” I was told. Well frankly why does that makes us more inclined to win? We weren’t the only team without a game; the whole division had the same so EVERYONE had a break. People couldn’t see this. They get so blinkered by Forest they only see the benefit to us. We will be rested, they will be rusty. Such theory is bonkers. As is the fact that people couldn’t see it breaking momentum.
The Middlesbrough game was the wrong match at the wrong time. We needed an easy home game (this Barnsley match) following the first defeat for Davies. But with a tricky away game, and question marks sneaking in came back to back wins. Now the challenge is to reinvigorate that morale. The players need picking up. If we don’t beat Barnsley, I don’t care about the point’s connotations, the morale will be spent. The players will have been defeated in mind and body. Should we win that game then the boost could carry us back up there. Even if we win and still remain outside the playoffs it would hopefully have gee'd us up to a point whereby we keep ourselves in with a chance going into that Leicester game.
I’ve said it, other bloggers have said, people on Twitter said it. To be where we were at the time was a victory itself, never mind had we made it by the last game. We really have no right to be in with a shout considering where we were, but lo and behold we made it to 5th. That said if we had no right, then Bolton are riding all their luck being in the top few as they were even further behind. Did we peak too soon? Possibly, but then the run of fixtures in late March early April would always be hard to maintain momentum over. Playing a number of teams chasing the dream was always a hard prospect. And so it proved. So I wouldn’t say we peaked too early, you can only do what you can against what’s put in front of you. It happened to be a run of out of sort’s teams, and teams struggling.
Considering our remaining away game is against Millwall whose season now they lost in the FA Cup semi final is over they have nothing to play for. Those teams can be dangerous. Playing with the shackles off, it is simply for fun. Bu tit can go the other way, how do you motivate players who had a Wembley performance recently and had the biggest game of their season at their feet and messed it up and have nothing else to play for? It is eminently winnable. And so we should. But it remains as I say tricky. Leicester have hard games so would easily slip up, and both Palace and Brighton are playing teams struggling against relegation. Those are notoriously hard games you want to avoid. Bolton’s looks the best run in, they play Cardiff who might well be in party mode and Middlesbrough and Blackpool who by then will have nothing to play for.
Last week I’d have said don’t look at other teams, we have fate in our hands, now we don’t, but we still just have to win our games and hope for the best. Remember when went up from League One? That was completely against the odds.
Monday, April 15, 2013
Cardiff Defeat Not the End of the World
By and large most fans seem to have avoided the hysterics of finally losing a game and falling out the playoffs. There will always be those who react to each and every result as if that result is indicative of the season as a whole, but on the most part fans are remaining somewhat grounded.
The true test will be the next few results. The next two games mainly because if we carry on in not winning (and if we fail to beat Barnsley on Saturday would we really deserve to be up there) then the faith will be lost by the fair-weather fans, and seeing as they all rushed out to buy those triple header tickets it may make or a strange atmosphere.
Cardiff are top for a reason. Let’s not forget they are a formidable opposition, so to lose to them was almost expected. And I say that because of the mixed reasons that we have been limping to last minute draws lately against weaker teams than Cardiff, and whatever they’re nickname is nowadays after all their image shifts. Additionally when I planned the remainder of our season in a previous blog I said we could afford two defeats and had that game down as a definite loss. So all is not lost.
However, the problem is the feeling of things could start snowballing. The feeling we could even make automatic was born out of that. A small movement that gradually builds a huge momentum before collapsing. That same momentum that carried us to being 10 games undefeated and people thinking we could go the rest of the season could easily move to the fact we haven’t won in 4 games now. It’s funny how one change in result goes and put a different light on the situation.
Make no mistake to be where we are and when is still a surprise to consider where we were in early February. So all is not lost. I always thought that if we could make it we’d sneak in on the last day and see where the playoffs took us. To have got up to 5th in early April was amazing to me.
We all cited the amazing form we were on as how we would beat the others to make it but remember that same run of form we went on could carry others in there, namely Bolton. Who at a similar time to us starting our run were flirting with relegation. Now they occupy what we could view as having been our spot. It’s theirs to lose now, and fate is no longer in our hands.
What’s perhaps the most risky part is that we conceded three goals, and the strikers are still remaining goalless. Tuesday’s game against Middlesbrough is huge now. Considering that palace and Brighton are away at teams in the lower reaches (though with this division as it is those games are potential pitfalls) and with Bolton and Leicester facing off versus each other (and those two being the main playoff rivals for us) if they were to draw that would help a lot. Middlesbrough have only won twice this calendar year, but the old feeling that of course the time they get it right will be against us. Mowbray has his back to a wall and is fighting for his job. This could cause us a problem. A draw wouldn’t be a complete disaster as at least it’s a momentum of points, but defeat could kill our morale. If we don’t Barnsley on Saturday regardless of the Boro result I think it could be extremely costly for our playoffs bid. The teams who struggled for form have started to turn it round slowly.
It will be a fascinating week regardless in our season and one that could sculpt it. Losing to Cardiff was almost to be expected, but we need to expunge it from our system and get back to winning ways, rather than the stunted draws that littered the last few weeks. The International Break as I worried would, has removed the wind from our sails a little, coupled with all the razzmatazz of Fawaz interviews and the exposes on Forest, things haven’t fired in the same way since that time.
Hopefully that feeling, and that momentum can be reignited.
The true test will be the next few results. The next two games mainly because if we carry on in not winning (and if we fail to beat Barnsley on Saturday would we really deserve to be up there) then the faith will be lost by the fair-weather fans, and seeing as they all rushed out to buy those triple header tickets it may make or a strange atmosphere.
Cardiff are top for a reason. Let’s not forget they are a formidable opposition, so to lose to them was almost expected. And I say that because of the mixed reasons that we have been limping to last minute draws lately against weaker teams than Cardiff, and whatever they’re nickname is nowadays after all their image shifts. Additionally when I planned the remainder of our season in a previous blog I said we could afford two defeats and had that game down as a definite loss. So all is not lost.
However, the problem is the feeling of things could start snowballing. The feeling we could even make automatic was born out of that. A small movement that gradually builds a huge momentum before collapsing. That same momentum that carried us to being 10 games undefeated and people thinking we could go the rest of the season could easily move to the fact we haven’t won in 4 games now. It’s funny how one change in result goes and put a different light on the situation.
Make no mistake to be where we are and when is still a surprise to consider where we were in early February. So all is not lost. I always thought that if we could make it we’d sneak in on the last day and see where the playoffs took us. To have got up to 5th in early April was amazing to me.
We all cited the amazing form we were on as how we would beat the others to make it but remember that same run of form we went on could carry others in there, namely Bolton. Who at a similar time to us starting our run were flirting with relegation. Now they occupy what we could view as having been our spot. It’s theirs to lose now, and fate is no longer in our hands.
What’s perhaps the most risky part is that we conceded three goals, and the strikers are still remaining goalless. Tuesday’s game against Middlesbrough is huge now. Considering that palace and Brighton are away at teams in the lower reaches (though with this division as it is those games are potential pitfalls) and with Bolton and Leicester facing off versus each other (and those two being the main playoff rivals for us) if they were to draw that would help a lot. Middlesbrough have only won twice this calendar year, but the old feeling that of course the time they get it right will be against us. Mowbray has his back to a wall and is fighting for his job. This could cause us a problem. A draw wouldn’t be a complete disaster as at least it’s a momentum of points, but defeat could kill our morale. If we don’t Barnsley on Saturday regardless of the Boro result I think it could be extremely costly for our playoffs bid. The teams who struggled for form have started to turn it round slowly.
It will be a fascinating week regardless in our season and one that could sculpt it. Losing to Cardiff was almost to be expected, but we need to expunge it from our system and get back to winning ways, rather than the stunted draws that littered the last few weeks. The International Break as I worried would, has removed the wind from our sails a little, coupled with all the razzmatazz of Fawaz interviews and the exposes on Forest, things haven’t fired in the same way since that time.
Hopefully that feeling, and that momentum can be reignited.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Forest Continue To Grind Out Draws To Keep Playoff Push Alive
So my ultimate plan of what we needed with 10 games left of 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats is out the window. We now have 3 draws in that time. That’s fine because the playoff chase is not following any rules this season.
In normal circumstances drawing 3 in a row after sneaking into the playoffs including 2 home games would and should seen us drop out of the playoffs. Such is the constant tripping over of each other in this race, we actually look in a stronger position than before we got into 5th place.
The Brighton game always looked dangerous and Turf Moor is a place we never had much luck at. Blackpool was a team with a psychological hold over us. And so it came to pass. Blackpool although never really the better team despite whatever delusions Paul Ince tries to pass off as reality had the lead and forced us to break them down slowly. Ultimately it was another penalty when it came.
We seem to be getting that stroke of luck with late penalties at the moment salvaging us a point here and there, and how vital will they be come the end of the season? Potentially we will rely on them. And of course Lewis McGugan netting again, where 4 strikers on the pitch once again toiled to no avail.
A word on Blackpool though, they have capable players and extremely dangerous wingers (though Pauls, valuations of son Tom Ince’s value looked laughable on the strength of this game). That said the way the embarrassingly tried to waste time at all junctures after taking their lead was almost embarrassing. How their keeper wasn’t booked is beyond me, but we can forgive the ref as he gave us the penalty (albeit stonewall) and sent off briefly ex Red Isaiah Osborne for a rash tackle. Again Ince’s delusions came out where he claimed it was never a red, even though he was late, high and with legs up. Ince’s quotes mentions it wasn’t a red as they were on top. How does this work Paul? How is a red card offence not a red because which team has an upper hand? Even that negates the fact they clearly didn’t. Blackpool had around 2 shots all game, one a goal, the other hit the bar. In Paul Ince world that’s dominating a game. Maybe he was convincing the thousands at home this was the case, as Blackpool’s away support was for a team who have been top flight in the recent past miniscule.
For me this was a game where the midfield had a lot of the ball with no real end product. Reid’s passing deserted him, Majewski was quieter than usual. Guedioura at times was hit and miss some wonderful passing but then some ill advised attempts at dribbling in bad positions. The defence looked fairly firm, except when Matt Phillips had a couple of pacey mazy runs where he really challenged them, and it bothers me this misguided cries from the crowd of tackle him. You try and jump in that stage and you get passed, or you take him out and get booked. Jockeying for the right time to put your foot in is completely the right thing to do. But fans want you to jump in with a sliding tackle to win in spectacular fashion. You cannot touch especially from behind a player like Ince or Phillips in full flow, they will go down.
It was kind of depressing to see a familiar type of conceded goal that Blackpool scored. The midfielder with that extra yard or so of space to net with aplomb. I’d say it was a good goal, but we have seen a few guys do exactly the same goal. Liam Trotter for Millwall springs to mind. The defence sit off giving him the space to set his body to shoot without closing down. You’d think we’d learn by now but evidently not.
But my mind is split. On the hand the wins have temporarily dried up, just as we come up to a very tricky away day to Cardiff, (that said we do well down there) but on the other hand, these are games we could easily have lost, and have gained 3 points at the death from nothing. That same 3 points is currently our buffer for being in the playoffs. That connection has to be made. Additionally we have extended our unbeaten run now, and that can only be a good thing. If we are to fail to win, points at this stage add up, as shown by the last 3. If we did get a draw at Cardiff, which will go a long to helping us, we would definitely remain in the playoffs for another week, and all the psychological benefits of that, we’d have gotten over our biggest hurdle in the run in
In normal circumstances drawing 3 in a row after sneaking into the playoffs including 2 home games would and should seen us drop out of the playoffs. Such is the constant tripping over of each other in this race, we actually look in a stronger position than before we got into 5th place.
The Brighton game always looked dangerous and Turf Moor is a place we never had much luck at. Blackpool was a team with a psychological hold over us. And so it came to pass. Blackpool although never really the better team despite whatever delusions Paul Ince tries to pass off as reality had the lead and forced us to break them down slowly. Ultimately it was another penalty when it came.
We seem to be getting that stroke of luck with late penalties at the moment salvaging us a point here and there, and how vital will they be come the end of the season? Potentially we will rely on them. And of course Lewis McGugan netting again, where 4 strikers on the pitch once again toiled to no avail.
A word on Blackpool though, they have capable players and extremely dangerous wingers (though Pauls, valuations of son Tom Ince’s value looked laughable on the strength of this game). That said the way the embarrassingly tried to waste time at all junctures after taking their lead was almost embarrassing. How their keeper wasn’t booked is beyond me, but we can forgive the ref as he gave us the penalty (albeit stonewall) and sent off briefly ex Red Isaiah Osborne for a rash tackle. Again Ince’s delusions came out where he claimed it was never a red, even though he was late, high and with legs up. Ince’s quotes mentions it wasn’t a red as they were on top. How does this work Paul? How is a red card offence not a red because which team has an upper hand? Even that negates the fact they clearly didn’t. Blackpool had around 2 shots all game, one a goal, the other hit the bar. In Paul Ince world that’s dominating a game. Maybe he was convincing the thousands at home this was the case, as Blackpool’s away support was for a team who have been top flight in the recent past miniscule.
For me this was a game where the midfield had a lot of the ball with no real end product. Reid’s passing deserted him, Majewski was quieter than usual. Guedioura at times was hit and miss some wonderful passing but then some ill advised attempts at dribbling in bad positions. The defence looked fairly firm, except when Matt Phillips had a couple of pacey mazy runs where he really challenged them, and it bothers me this misguided cries from the crowd of tackle him. You try and jump in that stage and you get passed, or you take him out and get booked. Jockeying for the right time to put your foot in is completely the right thing to do. But fans want you to jump in with a sliding tackle to win in spectacular fashion. You cannot touch especially from behind a player like Ince or Phillips in full flow, they will go down.
It was kind of depressing to see a familiar type of conceded goal that Blackpool scored. The midfielder with that extra yard or so of space to net with aplomb. I’d say it was a good goal, but we have seen a few guys do exactly the same goal. Liam Trotter for Millwall springs to mind. The defence sit off giving him the space to set his body to shoot without closing down. You’d think we’d learn by now but evidently not.
But my mind is split. On the hand the wins have temporarily dried up, just as we come up to a very tricky away day to Cardiff, (that said we do well down there) but on the other hand, these are games we could easily have lost, and have gained 3 points at the death from nothing. That same 3 points is currently our buffer for being in the playoffs. That connection has to be made. Additionally we have extended our unbeaten run now, and that can only be a good thing. If we are to fail to win, points at this stage add up, as shown by the last 3. If we did get a draw at Cardiff, which will go a long to helping us, we would definitely remain in the playoffs for another week, and all the psychological benefits of that, we’d have gotten over our biggest hurdle in the run in
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Contractual Situations
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| The Trio Whose Contracts Are Up |
Usually for Forest this isn’t a tale of half a dozen key contracts being up for renewal, but for once just 3 really. Aside from the loan players of course.
We have three main players out of contract and one of those has spent the majority of the season unavailable or out on loan in the guise of Marcus Tudgay. Contrary to rumours elsewhere Chris Cohen is not out of contract, a quick search reveals he signed a new deal in October (evidenced here). Other contracts that were expiring in Dexter Blackstock and Radi Majewski have been renewed.
Which leaves Andy Reid, who signed a 2 year deal when he signed, erm, 2 years ago, and Lewis McGugan.
Now I don’t know the ins and outs of whether we have offered deals, and in the past this kind of news has lead to conjecture about players futures. A number all blindly believed Dexter had joined Leeds, and a strange Polish press release seemed to indicate Majewski couldn’t agree terms, but these were both in the early days of negotiations and seem to be a counter ploy by agents to get the required deals.
I say it’s all conjecture because you never know the truth in these matters. Reid and McGugan on the surface appear to be have not offered deals yet. This would surprise me as Reid has played regularly this season and is a big part of how we play, and McGugan is dangerous and would have sell on value.
Our new found wealth would also mean that any potential stumbling blocks over Reid’s wages (believed to be around £12k a week) would now be averted, as had this been last year there isn’t a cat in hells chance of agreeing anything similar.
Unless it is that is a problem. That the club don’t want such high wages when we aren’t sure where we will be next season. However I do assume that the new deals signed this season were all of a higher end of any pay scale, and the fact Reid is 30 might be stumbling blocks too. Stick him on a 2 year deal and we’d be stuck with it. 30 year attacking midfielders aren’t the most valued commodity even if they have the quality Reid does, and with his pay deal and being saddled with that in the Championship? Well Chairman get itchy about that.
There is every chance deals are in the pipeline, but they may have been earmarked as players to monitor in relation to our league position and where we end up. The likes of McGugan would probably want a good deal, and he could maybe step up, but here’s a catch. Is McGugans bright form because of that very reason? He’s playing for a deal? We’ve seen it time and time again.
I can honestly see Tudgay being released. I think the club want to see where they are before seeing what to do with Reid and McGugan, and maybe they both want to see where the club are before they start negotiating. We seem to have been locking down players we want to keep. The fact these 2 deals are expiring I find interesting.
The Team That Doesn't Know When It's Beat
Two games in a week where being behind at 90 minutes means nothing. This team will play till that final whistle and it is bringing us the chance of success. Whereas in the past we may have licked our wounds and whimpered about losing, they knuckle down and eked out a point in both games, which were both tricky propositions before we even kicked a ball.
And seeing as the rest of the Championship all seem like they don’t want to be promoted, tripping over each other and themselves in the run in, these 2 points although we could have hoped for more, may seem huge in the great scheme of things. Palace are way off form, Leicester seem to have imploded, and so what should have been us slipping in and out the playoffs (in reality with where we were 1 month ago, we should really be chasing the pack rather than being the pack) we sit in there with a bit of leeway.
It’s with strange emotions I review this weekend’s football. On the one hand the sheer elation that we got that point against Brighton, and the utter gift that it was, is coupled with the fact that we simply shouldn’t have been behind in a game we were the better team for in large portions.
That said I think any fan with any sense saw this for the dangerous tie it could be. The Seagulls may have recently had their wings clipped, but they have been near the top of the table all season for a reason, have a good manager, and have signed some extremely good players. The likes of Bridge and Upson have played at the very highest level so Brighton are no mugs.
Despite that, we could and should have been ahead at half time. Reid deciding to clip an effort to the back post rather than put his laces through it and let it go. It’d have had a better chance of going in, least of all ricochet to another player moving in to score.
Majewski for me though never got going and I just hope my worst worries and theories about him only being to play well in month long bursts isn’t coming true. McGugan looked far more likely to make something happen, as he ultimately did, to equalise after we fell behind. That goal was kind of contentious. The goal resulted from a corner which resulted from a free kick that was questionable. Therefore a bit of a moan, but it was one of those things. How long after anything happens in a game is the previous passage of play responsible. To use that argument you could go back any distance in any game.
There has been the flash point that had seen Lua Lua “raise” his hands, although how high you have to raise them appears to be the issue. There are a number who after seeing the incident later on TV decided that it probably didn’t deserve a red but for me once you motion aggressively towards another player you lose many of the rights to argue your case. Be it a motion with the head or use your body to charge them, if this is in a scuffle similar to what developed you run the risk of a red for sure. I do contend that sending him off might have made this a less enthralling contest but I also think it speaks volumes that he was then removed by his manager at half time, and forget any other excuse; it was to pull him out of any further confrontation.
Of course Ulloa would score, but for us to get back into it illustrated this team’s resolve. McGugan down the right flank, firing in powerfully but that took a deflection to take past Ankergram who seemed extremely annoyed with himself after the goal. At this stage we could have gone on and won it, but instead we let our guard down and Buckley gave them the lead back. I genuinely at this point couldn’t see us getting anything. Battling back to draw level as it was had took its toll and surely the emotion of going back behind would see spirits drop. Well maybe in the past but now, although it was a tame goal when it came, we just keep going. I’m sure by now we all have seen it that equalising goal, Lansbury’s effort was weak and straight at the keeper, to the point I sat down when he shot, thinking it saved, and so I didn’t see the keeper spill it till the roars came. Thank god for the new big screens.
2 days later we again very late on salvaged a point when all looked lost and again from the midfield. I didn’t see the game, and had to work so didn’t hear much of it either, so my analysis will be fairly weak. I will say this, McGugan took a brave penalty and to be honest you know McGugan will back himself every time in that situation. We might not always agree with him, and often he might fail, but he is on a crest of a wave right now, and so it continues. The midfield goals save us again.
What had been discussed before and during the game was our previously bad record at Turf Moor, especially scoring goals, so as well as getting a point, even scoring is a mild victory. What a difference a manager makes though. Under McLeish and probably O’Driscoll I doubt we’d have got a point in either game. We’d have wilted. Under Davies there is a tenacity to keep going until every clichéd and proverbial analogy can be made about the very end. They will always try. And it’s that tenacity that looks increasingly likely to be rewarded with a playoff spot. This isn’t down to just skill, ability, and luck. They all play a part, but if we we weren’t trying till the death and playing it seem’s for Billy, those characteristics wouldn’t matter a jot. We’d still have lost. But to keep going, to keep trying, even when for 96 minutes it hasn’t been happening, there is clearly something more to the team and squad right now than the traditional qualities. They demand to succeed. They won’t be beaten. And it’s this zeal and passion which is that difference a manager can make.
I’ve recently started reading the Secret Footballer, and he speaks about the manager can make that difference. For one guy they might not try as hard, or put that extra yard in to make something happen. It is clear Davies gets them to do that. Perhaps more than any other manager right now up there is getting. Because to see the way the other teams are slipping whilst we charge into the playoffs makes you wonder how far skill and ability has taken them and how much passion and desire and that grit needed has deserted them. Make no mistake, I remember the days previously under Davies where we would have the January February drop in form, so it’s clear he can’t keep it firing the whole season, no manager can, but for what we needed and at the time, he was the shot in the arm we needed between going for broke and wilting and fading. Mowbray doesn’t seem to have it, Pearson doesn’t either. Warnock probably does but that is where the luck and skill part also play their part, his Leeds team is just not good enough. Had Leicester or Boro had Warnock I doubt you’d have seen them fade away completely. Because when most have played their cards, or put it is all season, when it came to the vital parts of the season they were left wanting. We aren’t.
And seeing as the rest of the Championship all seem like they don’t want to be promoted, tripping over each other and themselves in the run in, these 2 points although we could have hoped for more, may seem huge in the great scheme of things. Palace are way off form, Leicester seem to have imploded, and so what should have been us slipping in and out the playoffs (in reality with where we were 1 month ago, we should really be chasing the pack rather than being the pack) we sit in there with a bit of leeway.
It’s with strange emotions I review this weekend’s football. On the one hand the sheer elation that we got that point against Brighton, and the utter gift that it was, is coupled with the fact that we simply shouldn’t have been behind in a game we were the better team for in large portions.
That said I think any fan with any sense saw this for the dangerous tie it could be. The Seagulls may have recently had their wings clipped, but they have been near the top of the table all season for a reason, have a good manager, and have signed some extremely good players. The likes of Bridge and Upson have played at the very highest level so Brighton are no mugs.
Despite that, we could and should have been ahead at half time. Reid deciding to clip an effort to the back post rather than put his laces through it and let it go. It’d have had a better chance of going in, least of all ricochet to another player moving in to score.
Majewski for me though never got going and I just hope my worst worries and theories about him only being to play well in month long bursts isn’t coming true. McGugan looked far more likely to make something happen, as he ultimately did, to equalise after we fell behind. That goal was kind of contentious. The goal resulted from a corner which resulted from a free kick that was questionable. Therefore a bit of a moan, but it was one of those things. How long after anything happens in a game is the previous passage of play responsible. To use that argument you could go back any distance in any game.
There has been the flash point that had seen Lua Lua “raise” his hands, although how high you have to raise them appears to be the issue. There are a number who after seeing the incident later on TV decided that it probably didn’t deserve a red but for me once you motion aggressively towards another player you lose many of the rights to argue your case. Be it a motion with the head or use your body to charge them, if this is in a scuffle similar to what developed you run the risk of a red for sure. I do contend that sending him off might have made this a less enthralling contest but I also think it speaks volumes that he was then removed by his manager at half time, and forget any other excuse; it was to pull him out of any further confrontation.
Of course Ulloa would score, but for us to get back into it illustrated this team’s resolve. McGugan down the right flank, firing in powerfully but that took a deflection to take past Ankergram who seemed extremely annoyed with himself after the goal. At this stage we could have gone on and won it, but instead we let our guard down and Buckley gave them the lead back. I genuinely at this point couldn’t see us getting anything. Battling back to draw level as it was had took its toll and surely the emotion of going back behind would see spirits drop. Well maybe in the past but now, although it was a tame goal when it came, we just keep going. I’m sure by now we all have seen it that equalising goal, Lansbury’s effort was weak and straight at the keeper, to the point I sat down when he shot, thinking it saved, and so I didn’t see the keeper spill it till the roars came. Thank god for the new big screens.
2 days later we again very late on salvaged a point when all looked lost and again from the midfield. I didn’t see the game, and had to work so didn’t hear much of it either, so my analysis will be fairly weak. I will say this, McGugan took a brave penalty and to be honest you know McGugan will back himself every time in that situation. We might not always agree with him, and often he might fail, but he is on a crest of a wave right now, and so it continues. The midfield goals save us again.
What had been discussed before and during the game was our previously bad record at Turf Moor, especially scoring goals, so as well as getting a point, even scoring is a mild victory. What a difference a manager makes though. Under McLeish and probably O’Driscoll I doubt we’d have got a point in either game. We’d have wilted. Under Davies there is a tenacity to keep going until every clichéd and proverbial analogy can be made about the very end. They will always try. And it’s that tenacity that looks increasingly likely to be rewarded with a playoff spot. This isn’t down to just skill, ability, and luck. They all play a part, but if we we weren’t trying till the death and playing it seem’s for Billy, those characteristics wouldn’t matter a jot. We’d still have lost. But to keep going, to keep trying, even when for 96 minutes it hasn’t been happening, there is clearly something more to the team and squad right now than the traditional qualities. They demand to succeed. They won’t be beaten. And it’s this zeal and passion which is that difference a manager can make.
I’ve recently started reading the Secret Footballer, and he speaks about the manager can make that difference. For one guy they might not try as hard, or put that extra yard in to make something happen. It is clear Davies gets them to do that. Perhaps more than any other manager right now up there is getting. Because to see the way the other teams are slipping whilst we charge into the playoffs makes you wonder how far skill and ability has taken them and how much passion and desire and that grit needed has deserted them. Make no mistake, I remember the days previously under Davies where we would have the January February drop in form, so it’s clear he can’t keep it firing the whole season, no manager can, but for what we needed and at the time, he was the shot in the arm we needed between going for broke and wilting and fading. Mowbray doesn’t seem to have it, Pearson doesn’t either. Warnock probably does but that is where the luck and skill part also play their part, his Leeds team is just not good enough. Had Leicester or Boro had Warnock I doubt you’d have seen them fade away completely. Because when most have played their cards, or put it is all season, when it came to the vital parts of the season they were left wanting. We aren’t.
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