Whisper It No Longer, Promotion is a Real Possibility

Although I looked at the issue before and made certain projections and guesses about what we would need for promotion, I have tried to remain somewhat calmer on the issue than deciding that we are on the up. With some very dangerous fixtures coming up there were plenty of pitfalls and traps to stop our bid to reach the playoffs.


Well, things change. Not only have we overcome a very tricky fixture that I had factored at best as a draw, and a potential defeat, but the possibility of surpassing even the playoff aim remains very real. Not just real, but also within our grasp.

I scoffed not long ago at people suggesting we could make it. With 10 games left we’d need 31 points to reach the average points tally for promotion, and would need to win 8 games to reach the lowest over the last few years. But this year’s championship is a strange beast. Compare the points range to League One for instance and it is frankly scary. Anyone below 9th is embroiled in a relegation scrap. Above and it’s all open save for Cardiff moving clear at the top. 15 points spate the playoffs from relegation give or take. Derby in 9th would be the mire had they not beaten Leicester hovering 2 points above the drop in around 19th. The lower mid table is that tight. In League 1 the range is more like 30 points between playoffs and relegation.

What that suggests is 1, how tight the league really is, and 2 that such a thin spread of points means that the points needed to go up, might drop accordingly. Everyone seems so keen to slip up that it leaves the race wide open.

And now following that away win at Hull it is on. The race is open, and we’re driving a big tree shaped object right into that gap. I haven’t looked at the odds but over the last few weeks our odds must have tumbled quite dramatically. We still remain an outside by position and by our fixtures. But that forgets the momentum we have built.

Unfortunately the international break may well scupper that. Some are saying it will be a rest and a break to reinvigorate forgetting that we have our fair share of internationals that will be off representing their various nationalities. It’s only a break if you aren’t playing, and Guedioura, Cox, Lansbury and Majewski, all pivotal players in recent weeks will be off with their nationalities. I’ve tried to find out if Jara is away with Chile but the squad lists I found aren’t conclusive. But that’s an integral core of the squad who won’t be getting rests or having their feet up as many seem to think the international break is for, but instead will be busy.

Davies had spoke about the players looking leggy, but bear in mind he hasn’t rotated people at all to counteract that in the midfield or defence. Up front has seen various changes to combat injury, illness or specific targets the team wants. Bear in mind the one position struggling to hit the high levels expected is the one where we have been rotating. The strikers have struggled to net a lot, whilst the settled midfield went on a free scoring run of form. The defence have looked more secure. So the notion they need a rest for looking leggy is already looking slightly misplaced. The midfield was rotated earlier this season and didn’t reap the rewards of a settled structure and personnel.

The win against Hull has firmly established our credentials as promotion chasers, even for Claridge and Manish Bhasin to contend we are in there. Not just because of our form, but the fact the rest of the contenders seem intent on not going up. Watford, Leicester, Middlesbrough, Palace have all gone onto dodgy form, Brighton wavered until yesterday and we know about Hull. So not only are we hitting form, but everyone else is losing theirs.

The win on Saturday may well have been a backs to the wall job late on, and Bruce may rightfully claim they could and should have got more out of it, but you have to score those chances you get which Hull didn’t. It was always going to happen that Boyd scored for Hull after the whole Eye-gate thing at the end of January, but that episode bought about where we are today indirectly. And under McLeish we would have wilted. Instead we buckled down, got a goal through big Darius, and then snuck a winner and battled to a win clearing off the line in the last moments after McGugans goal. Radio Nottingham spoke of a slice of luck, and that occasionally you need to utilise it, and we surely did that on Saturday.

We could easily have only taken a point from that, and I think many would have been content with that, but as the wins continue to come so does the level of expectation rise, and I hope that doesn’t lead to pressure implosion we sometimes see with Forest, usually in the playoffs. We’ve played with the pressure firmly off of late. And we have reaped the rewards. The pressure will be on in a new way soon. And now we have to manage that. The fairweathers who demand wins for the few games they go to, as they only come out when we’re winning will be out in their droves. We just need make sure these legacies of the past; of imploding when the pressure and focus comes back to us doesn’t happen again. Maybe that’s why an under the radar, unheralded run has helped. No-one really saw us as contenders. Now they do, and so do we.

The Path to the Playoffs and Where Forest Need to Win (or Lose)

Ok, so every season isn’t the same, and this season might see a new record low or high points needed, or hell a different average, but we here at Forest 24-7 have been making some calculations to see what is needed to get promoted (hey, we are the form team in the division right now) or to just reach the lottery that is the playoffs.


What has been exposed is that on average we have left a charge for the automatic spots too late. In an average season even if we won all our remaining fixtures we would be left short points wise by a single one. Now Ok, this season might be different, but themes the facts.

Additionally I don’t think any fan with a modicum of sense is actually thinking we can currently go for top two. Maybe a few delusional extremists, but the large core know this is probably now beyond us.

But what of the playoffs? In an average season 73 points are needed based on the last 5 years. Two of those years 70 points is all that’s been required. We currently have 54. So on average that’s 19 points. Although could be as little as 16 points. Which is basically 3 points either way leeway. Based on going somewhere just below the bottom we reckon going for 20 points might be doable. But this is where things get trickier. That means winning 6, drawing 2 and allowing for 2 defeats. That would certainly be promotion form. Well let’s look at the remaining fixtures.

Nottm Forest V Wolves

Sat 9 Mar 15:00

Hull V Nottm Forest

Sat 16 Mar 15:00

Nottm Forest V Brighton

Sat 30 Mar 15:00

Burnley V Nottm Forest

Mon 1 Apr 15:00

Nottm Forest V Blackpool

Sat 6 Apr 15:00

Cardiff V Nottm Forest

Sat 13 Apr 15:00

Middlesbrough V Nottm Forest

Tue 16 Apr 19:45

Nottm Forest V Barnsley

Sat 20 Apr 15:00

Millwall V Nottm Forest

Sat 27 Apr 15:00

Nottm Forest V Leicester

Now the Championship being the Championship, it is very hard to predict who will do what and when. It is notorious for anyone being able to beat anyone, and as such bankers are not always what they seem. That said if we need 6 wins, you have to identify the fact we have 5 homes left. 2 of those against struggling opposition. This includes 2 promotion chasing teams, Brighton and potentially the last say Playoff shootout between us and Leicester. As I said for simplicity sake, these we will pencil in as wins for now

Leaving another win and 2 draws required. Now we have two winnable away games, Burnley and Millwall, but let’s say for arguments sake we only need win one, Milwall is the harder place to go. Middlesbrough and Cardiff are not on great form, but their league positions, as well as Hull suggest that between these 3 we could absorb the two defeats we potentially can absorb. However on the crest we are currently on and on paper, the Hull game is the one I’d fancy us to maybe get something from.

Similarly should we fail to beat Leicester or Brighton, then you could look to the Burnley & Millwall games as both being wins.

This is all as I say basically guesswork, and football is NEVER this easy. But it does show how possible it is, but also how perilously poised our hopes are hanging by small threads. But look at where we were a month ago compared to now, and this was unthinkable to sit down and work out. If we can’t dream what can we do? We could lose the easier games, end up beating Middlesbrough and Hull and throw other cats amongst the pigeons as we are then taking points off those teams we are competing against

Exciting times ahead.


Heres the Maths

The Divisive Issue...Can We Achieve Promotion?

Following the win against Watford and rise into the automatic promotion places, which pleasingly we retained after Cardiff defeated Swansea it seems to me there is one debate going on amongst Forest fans right now. The issue of whether we can get actually get promoted.

Now the simple fact is that we retain second spot in the league with games in hand on those around us. This of course could see go clear of said teams. So in essence it is ours to lose. Again. Because lets not forget we got ourselves into this position last year.

However, we hit that spot earlier, and it is easy to say with a worse squad. For one we have a left back this time. By the time we hit second last time we were about to lose Shorey. Now we are second with a left back we have till nearly the end of the season. By which time we will have two relatively easy games left against Scunthorpe and Palace. I say relatively, because as s the most often used cliche around the Championship is of course anyone can beat anyone,which is true, but if it truly were the case we would all have the same amount of points. By and large we beat worse teams, it's why we are second in the first place.

I say mostly it is a divisive issue because of the conversations I have have had with Forest fans versus conversations I have had with non Forest fans. The non Forest fans all seem to think we are going to do it. On various neutral podcasts or news reports they seem to suggest they think we look good to be joining QPR (who everyone agrees are shoe ins for promotion) in the Premier League.

Forest fans are torn. Many I have spoken to or have seen on various forums (I do occasionally check to see what 24-7 rivals are saying) simply do not agree with the sentiment that we are promotion bound come what may. The simple reason for this is that we have a more clued knowledge of what we have to do, we are more aware of how we can play, who we have to play and our relative injury worries. Therefore many Forest fans think we will slip up. We have three very hard away games to come (QPR, Leeds ,and Norwich) not to mention what is looking a very crucial tie v Cardiff at the City Ground. For these reasons alone quite a few are sceptical.

Then there are the injury worries. Moussi is out for a while, we lost Blackstock ages ago. Findley is also out for awhile. However, let us remind ourselves we have got to where we are without even needing Findley, and Blackstock has been out for a while now, and even despite his injury we have risen into a healthy spot. Moussi is a blow, no doubt. However, last season we got up quite high with a large number of people still undecided on the Frenchman. This season he seems to have won over those sceptics, but again, we did well last year when he was a lot more inconsistent, and we relied more on McKenna sitting in the midfield.

Ahhh there is an issue, McKenna. He also divides fans, with quite a few berating him at all opportunities. Yet he can make this difference. I could try and argue he is fresh this season, whereas at the end of last year it was obvious he was somewhat overused an jaded. And injured. The Lazarus-esque come back for the payoffs was all in vain. But it is now February, and although he was injured, he won't be tired, and is perfect to come in for the final pushes to come.

Last year there is no doubt we fell away and limped over the line. We had no left back, many of the team seemed tired, and were constantly being rested in the last few games. This saw us lack any consistency and therefore we struggled against teams we really should have beaten. This year, well there is still no strength in depth, the same players are going to be used a lot. Beyond the current midfield, with the rotation of McGugan and Majewski we don't have a Thornhill figure anymore if we really are desperate. The utility man Perch has gone (which many will argue helps our chances) so in essence we are no stronger. If Morgan or Gunter were to be injured we have no player of a similar quality to fill in. We start getting nearly round pegs in round holes. We do have Tudgay we didn't have, but he is more filling in Blackstocks role now.



A number of people on other forums I have seen have called into question the boards ambition, not bringing in this window those players we need to get us home. Billy himself was quoted as saying we can make play-offs but no more. Billy of course has to say this. To say yes we will go up and then not looks like failure on his behalf, and he is far to intelligent to put that much pressure on himself. Much safer to play down expectations. But then there is the issue of if we made those "stellar" signings. We'd be coasting? Well not necessarily. A lot of what we are built on is a very strong team ethic, with players who not only play well together, but get on well together. To bring in some new names could easily rock that boat. That being said I wouldn't say no to the likes of Pratley coming in.

The board, and the infamous Transfer Panel, which may or may not exist any more depending on who you believe seemed to not offer the requisite fees for players. Hell, they might not even have agreed to said signings. There are no guarantee's that these players wanted to come us. Halfway through the season does Pratley jump ship and risk seeing Swansea go up at our expense, and curse his decision, the same with Whittingham, or any other number of players we may have been after. The likes of these guys would like if they move sideways to a club in the same division wait until the summer and decide then.

Are we good enough? We are second by right. We aren't here because someone else has games in hand. We have earned our position, it is ours to lose. There are big games ahead. Cardiff you could argue have an easier run in (we thought we did last season than WBA) Swansea too, but Norwich have a few tricky games.



To doubt our chances is to doubt us in any one on one game against other teams. We have already shown we are capable of big away wins (Cardiff) and indeed, we no longer have appalling away form, we have the best home form in the division. And it doesn't all end if we lose to QPR on Sunday. We are still in a good position, with a strong team, hurt by last seasons end, who want to make amends. Make no mistake though, Cardiff feel the same way too.

A guy I spoke to in the pub simply said there is no way we will go up, it's Forest, we always screw it up. It is something that sits in the back of the mind. But we did look like we messed League One up only to leapfrog Doncaster, we have twice got ourselves back out of this division before in the last 15 years., We can do it again.