Forest Draw With Burnley - Dyche Snipes.

I actually quite like Sean Dyche as a manager, and although I have frequently laughed at his wheezy raspy voice, he has a decent record, especially working on budgets.

That said his comments post match against Burnley left me feeling he’s just a bit moany and every time an opposition manager says stuff like this it just strikers of bitterness that they don’t have the resources. Don’t know what I’m talking about? Well we’ll discuss this later after looking at the match,
We exposed last week that Burnley are a bit of a bogey club for the Reds, we don’t have the best record against them at all, but they aren’t the only club in that group. So going into this game against a club we do struggle against who now happen to be flying it was clearly a worry.

With the pre game news of injuries and viruses hitting the centre of defence there was a great many people commenting on the fact they thought we’d get battered. The usual array of positivity anyway, or those who either see triumphant win or resounding defeat as the only pre game possibilities.

Of course the truth was, as a number speculated that Hobbs would be fit. The problem with Billy Davies announcing these injuries in the way he did is that he’s tried it before; we all know when he says this he’s actually sure that he will have someone to play there. He’s a terrible liar! So many people kind of thought, well I bet that means Hobbs WILL be fit. Which he was. Lichaj came back in the side, and Jara moved into midfield to cover for Vaughan. The rest was as it was against Leicester.

Jara is starting to look quite an accomplished figure in that holding role, taking the ball down and playing it wide or forward. Rather than a Moussi figure of just putting his head on it or trying to get clear. Cox kept his place following his strike v Leicester, and with Majewski playing his advanced role in the gap behind the striker, it was quite an attacking shape.

And things went well, very well. We had the better of the game; with the highlight being a Lansbury free kick coming back off the bar which Majewski then put the rebound wide. It was a good effort and had the keeper beaten. It seems in the absence of Reid then Lansbury is the free kick taker extraordinaire.
But Burnley of course took the lead. A lot has been said, written and gesticulate about this decision. For me it’s a simple case of turning the tables. Had that been at the other end, had that been Forest crossing the ball and had that been a decision to be made at the other end, every Forest fan would have sure it was a penalty, and citing that his hand was in an unnatural position. That reason alone to me says penalty. The simple truth is if had your hand is anywhere outside of your body and it strikes it, there is a very strong chance it will be given. There will be days the same thing happens and nothing given, it’s just one of those things. What rankles is that linesman gave no signal at all and he had a better position and yet the penalty was given by the ref, behind play and not as well positioned. It’s a small point, but for me it is a little annoying. That said, for me, it was a penalty despite what anyone says. Jara had his hand raised, although only slightly, and that more than likely means penalty. And as I said, the strongly voiced opinions, those shouting loudest it shouldn’t be given would be up in arms had the same thing not been given for us had rules been reversed.

And for the next five minutes were extremely shaky. Heads had dropped. Visibly. It just seemed an air of “well we tried really hard, had the better, and yet we’re losing.... what can we do?” before after that period we rallied. And when we did, we scored. Laughably right after one reliable Twitter idiot, clearly never at games, claimed Paterson is useless and should be withdrawn. Because Paterson clipped in a delightful cross begging to be scored. There had been good movement around the area and slick passing on the right, in the manner we are used to on the left. Jara clipped it inside to Paterson who got past his man and sent the ball high to the back post. It was unmissable, and played on an absolute plate. Cox nodded home and we were level again.

The second half saw us retain the best of the game, and yet we still retained an element of risk and danger, Chalobah replaced Lichaj and Jara went to right back, but his first five minutes apart, Chalobah played very well. He even had a decent chance that at the time looked close and placed, but on a replay didn’t quite look as cultured and close.

Other close efforts fell to Hobbs, and Lascelles. A near post effort at the death was nearly back heeled in by Forest but was saved and then cleared. Had we scored it would be deserved, we nicked it, except we didn’t. It stayed level.

There was a dampener in that Cohen got injured, at first it looked horrific, a player staying down, not moving saving for waving frantically is almost always bad news. Cohen was doing just this, but after a couple of minutes he limped back in to play and tried to support Abdoun who had replaced Majewski. Paterson too had been replaced by Henderson, leaving us with no sub options, but that’s by the by, our captain and vital cog in the machine looked badly hurt, especially when limping off again after trying to play on. The news on that is still not clear at time of writing.

So all in all a creditable draw. For one a depleted team, a second we went behind, but furthermore we looked down and beaten and dragged our selves round and got the spirit flowing.

A word on Dyche comments. He was a bit snippy claiming he had a smaller squad which, yes he does, but he was taking a dig at Davies saying how despite our crisis, we still had 32 players to chose from, and how they’d offered only £4.99 for Paterson whereas we paid a million. Very clever and funny Sean, making you look like paupers. That £5mill for Austin must really hurt your pockets. Furthermore we didn’t have another recognised centre half. Chalobah can play there, but two 19 year olds a centre back? No. I’d like him to name those 32 players we could have selected from.

It just seems the wealth we have still seems to get resentment from other teams who can’t help taking digs. In attempts to big up their good achievement versus us, it’s now used rather than the illustrious past. Just celebrate your win/draw. Don’t start blathering on about each other’s wage bill.

Are Burnley Really Our Bogey Club?

As we approach the big match against Burnley this week it reminds that Burnley are somewhat regarded as one of our bogey clubs. Half the time its unexplainable and we simply just say, yeah they are our bogey clubs. But is there any truth?

We all have that association between knowing that sometimes we will just beat a team, like we are often other team’s bogey teams. I remember when I was a kid Wimbledon seemed to have a hold over us, but then everyone struggled at Plough Lane. In a more modern context Walsall are oft cited as being a bogey club, as well until more recently Doncaster Rovers.

You could argue of course, especially in recent lights Blackpool are of course one, they just beat us, there was that playoff semi final, it just feels like they always win, but Burnley for me is just one of those teams who seem to win all the time. It’s a hard place to go, and they quite often give us a good game or a beating down at the City Ground (I remember them singing is there a fire drill 2 years ago or so as we limped to an insipid defeat under Cotterill)

Are Burnley Our Bogey Team?

I have decided to try and run some Excel jiggerypokery to it all. The results may well be interesting. For the interests of a cut off point I decided use our re-arrival in the Championship as a neat point.

We ran a matrix of results and then ran three tests against those. Namely who beat us most often, who we scored the least points against, and who we had the least wins against.

There were 38 teams we have played in that period. I cut off Cup Games and Playoff matches because well these pressure games stand alone from the usual range of a normal season. Also we have ignored the games this season as it's unfair to compare teams we have played this season and those we haven't, It'd skew the data

Teams We Lost Most Against.

A simple measure would be counting who we lost most often against.

Top 10 Losses
Burnley 5
Cardiff 5
Derby 5
Hull 4
Watford 4
Birmingham 3
Doncaster 3
Leeds 3
Leicester 3

So even on a first pass we can see Burnley is a thorn in the side, alongside Derby and Cardiff. But that isn’t a true picture. We have played some times more than others.
A simple percentage of games we lost show the following

Top 10 % Losses
West Ham 100%
Hull 66.67%
Burnley 62.50%
Birmingham 50%
Blackburn 50%
Cardiff 50%
Derby 50%
Leeds 50%
Newcastle 50%
Norwich 50%
Portsmouth 50%
Southampton 50%
WBA 50%
Wolves 50%


Which isn’t too accurate because, well, we only played West Ham twice in the Championship? So breaking that down by removing teams we played for only 2 seasons of fixtures against shows this.

Top 10 % Losses Frequently played)
Hull 66.67%
Burnley 62.5%
Birmingham 50%
Cardiff 50%
Derby 50%
Leeds 50%
Watford 40%
Doncaster 37.5%
Leicester 37.5%

We lose a higher percentage of games against Hull than we do Burnley. But they remain our biggest foe in this division at present. But that’s only one type of illustration. There is the also the following.



Points Scored Against OppositionFor this it’s simple a case of dividing the games played against the points scored to get a true picture of how we do in addition to defeats. (PPG means points per game)

Top 10 Lowest PPG
West Ham 0
Blackburn 0.5
Hull 0.67
Brighton 0.75
Birmingham 0.83
Burnley 0.88
Blackpool 1
Bolton 1
Norwich 1
Sheff Utd 1

Again like before this is without removing teams we hardly ever played, but yeah West Ham and Blackburn seem to have holds on us.
In terms of teams we played more often

Top 10 Lowest PPG (frequently)
Hull 0.67
Birmingham 0.83
Burnley 0.88
Blackpool 1
Sheffield United 1
Cardiff 1.1
Derby 1.1
Doncaster 1.13
Leicester 1.13

Hull and Birmingham are far worse bogey clubs in a simple points scored ratio. We just seem to draw a lot more against Birmingham than lose. If we factored in this season Brighton would now be removed, but it’s unfair to include teams we have played this season against teams we haven’t.
Finally, how about how many times we beat teams.


How Often We Beat Teams
These are the teams we have the least wins against. It’s just a simple count so yes, is skewed.

Top 10 Least Wins
Blackburn 0

Bolton 0

Brighton 0

West ham 0

Birmingham 1

Blackpool 1

Huddersfield 1

Hull 1

Newcastle 1

Norwich 1

QPR 1

Sheff Utd 1

WBA 1

Represented as a percentage it looks like this

Top 10 Least Wins %

Blackburn 0%

Bolton 0%

Brighton 0%

West ham 0%

Blackpool 12.5%

Birmingham 16.67%

Hull 16.67%

QPR 16.67%

Sheffield United 16.67%

When we remove the teams we played less than 5 times it looks like this

Top 10 Least Wins Frequent

Blackpool 12.5%

Birmingham 16.67%

Hull 16.67%

QPR 16.67%

Sheffield United 16.67%

Burnley 25%

Doncaster 25%

Leicester 25%

So actually Blackpool and Birmingham are the teams we win least against. Burnley for that matter we do get wins against (and tellingly at home) Birmingham are a surprising one in those stats.

If you factor all 3 together, Burnley pound for pound seem to be the biggest bogey club currently in the division, but Birmingham and Hull have been problems. Thankfully Hull got promoted, and Birmingham has started having serious problems so in that regard aren’t the force they always were. It’s interesting that considering other teams that Doncaster appear a few times in these lists and Derby and Leicester too. The likes of Reading and other big teams we play at this level don’t appear to be the problem you’d think they are, and Ipswich for instance are a team we have extremely good record against (incidentally the best team for scoring points against is Peterborough)

So yes, Burnley are a bogey club, and add to that their form, we can expect astern challenge on Saturday. However 2 out of the last 3 seasons we have beaten them at home, so that’s on our side. But for once fan opinion is accurate for once.

The Team That Doesn't Know When It's Beat

Two games in a week where being behind at 90 minutes means nothing. This team will play till that final whistle and it is bringing us the chance of success. Whereas in the past we may have licked our wounds and whimpered about losing, they knuckle down and eked out a point in both games, which were both tricky propositions before we even kicked a ball.


And seeing as the rest of the Championship all seem like they don’t want to be promoted, tripping over each other and themselves in the run in, these 2 points although we could have hoped for more, may seem huge in the great scheme of things. Palace are way off form, Leicester seem to have imploded, and so what should have been us slipping in and out the playoffs (in reality with where we were 1 month ago, we should really be chasing the pack rather than being the pack) we sit in there with a bit of leeway.

It’s with strange emotions I review this weekend’s football. On the one hand the sheer elation that we got that point against Brighton, and the utter gift that it was, is coupled with the fact that we simply shouldn’t have been behind in a game we were the better team for in large portions.

That said I think any fan with any sense saw this for the dangerous tie it could be. The Seagulls may have recently had their wings clipped, but they have been near the top of the table all season for a reason, have a good manager, and have signed some extremely good players. The likes of Bridge and Upson have played at the very highest level so Brighton are no mugs.

Despite that, we could and should have been ahead at half time. Reid deciding to clip an effort to the back post rather than put his laces through it and let it go. It’d have had a better chance of going in, least of all ricochet to another player moving in to score.

Majewski for me though never got going and I just hope my worst worries and theories about him only being to play well in month long bursts isn’t coming true. McGugan looked far more likely to make something happen, as he ultimately did, to equalise after we fell behind. That goal was kind of contentious. The goal resulted from a corner which resulted from a free kick that was questionable. Therefore a bit of a moan, but it was one of those things. How long after anything happens in a game is the previous passage of play responsible. To use that argument you could go back any distance in any game.

There has been the flash point that had seen Lua Lua “raise” his hands, although how high you have to raise them appears to be the issue. There are a number who after seeing the incident later on TV decided that it probably didn’t deserve a red but for me once you motion aggressively towards another player you lose many of the rights to argue your case. Be it a motion with the head or use your body to charge them, if this is in a scuffle similar to what developed you run the risk of a red for sure. I do contend that sending him off might have made this a less enthralling contest but I also think it speaks volumes that he was then removed by his manager at half time, and forget any other excuse; it was to pull him out of any further confrontation.

Of course Ulloa would score, but for us to get back into it illustrated this team’s resolve. McGugan down the right flank, firing in powerfully but that took a deflection to take past Ankergram who seemed extremely annoyed with himself after the goal. At this stage we could have gone on and won it, but instead we let our guard down and Buckley gave them the lead back. I genuinely at this point couldn’t see us getting anything. Battling back to draw level as it was had took its toll and surely the emotion of going back behind would see spirits drop. Well maybe in the past but now, although it was a tame goal when it came, we just keep going. I’m sure by now we all have seen it that equalising goal, Lansbury’s effort was weak and straight at the keeper, to the point I sat down when he shot, thinking it saved, and so I didn’t see the keeper spill it till the roars came. Thank god for the new big screens.

2 days later we again very late on salvaged a point when all looked lost and again from the midfield. I didn’t see the game, and had to work so didn’t hear much of it either, so my analysis will be fairly weak. I will say this, McGugan took a brave penalty and to be honest you know McGugan will back himself every time in that situation. We might not always agree with him, and often he might fail, but he is on a crest of a wave right now, and so it continues. The midfield goals save us again.

What had been discussed before and during the game was our previously bad record at Turf Moor, especially scoring goals, so as well as getting a point, even scoring is a mild victory. What a difference a manager makes though. Under McLeish and probably O’Driscoll I doubt we’d have got a point in either game. We’d have wilted. Under Davies there is a tenacity to keep going until every clichéd and proverbial analogy can be made about the very end. They will always try. And it’s that tenacity that looks increasingly likely to be rewarded with a playoff spot. This isn’t down to just skill, ability, and luck. They all play a part, but if we we weren’t trying till the death and playing it seem’s for Billy, those characteristics wouldn’t matter a jot. We’d still have lost. But to keep going, to keep trying, even when for 96 minutes it hasn’t been happening, there is clearly something more to the team and squad right now than the traditional qualities. They demand to succeed. They won’t be beaten. And it’s this zeal and passion which is that difference a manager can make.

I’ve recently started reading the Secret Footballer, and he speaks about the manager can make that difference. For one guy they might not try as hard, or put that extra yard in to make something happen. It is clear Davies gets them to do that. Perhaps more than any other manager right now up there is getting. Because to see the way the other teams are slipping whilst we charge into the playoffs makes you wonder how far skill and ability has taken them and how much passion and desire and that grit needed has deserted them. Make no mistake, I remember the days previously under Davies where we would have the January February drop in form, so it’s clear he can’t keep it firing the whole season, no manager can, but for what we needed and at the time, he was the shot in the arm we needed between going for broke and wilting and fading. Mowbray doesn’t seem to have it, Pearson doesn’t either. Warnock probably does but that is where the luck and skill part also play their part, his Leeds team is just not good enough. Had Leicester or Boro had Warnock I doubt you’d have seen them fade away completely. Because when most have played their cards, or put it is all season, when it came to the vital parts of the season they were left wanting. We aren’t.

Speechless

I just tried to write about 6 or 7 headlines. None fitted except this. The proper match report will follow but with result I feel a pre emptive response is needed.

That result.....christ whether can anyone ever describe anything positive. Something is not right in the state of Forest to quote a better playwright than me.

In 6 short months our defence has gone from water tight to frankly awfully leaky.What gives?

I am still too awestruck to put anything into a decent idea.

I have been defending the clubs management and directors recently. I feel currently like an idiot. A charlatan. I want to back this up. I frankly can't. Something has to give.I want to support one and all but to be honest I am sat here lost for words ,ideas and to be honest clues.

To make it worse my phone lies shattered. I dropped it to check the internet for more info on the way back from the pub. When your down the world kicks you harder..

There's a small part of me tonight wanting to go back in time and tell 8 year old me to not bother....... Like barbie dolls instead.

Post Burnley Podcast

A double bill because the Reading recording failed. We discuss the two matches,Cohens red card and other nonsense.

Download from here
http://www.sendspace.com/file/z2lnwc

Or use our youtube embededness here

Forest Return to Winning Ways

Forest got back to winning ways against Burnley at the City Ground tonight, in a drab affair that for long periods looked like it might go nowhere. Coupled with a defeat for Leeds and suddenly Forest are back in the playoff picture.

Forest made a number of changes to the starting line up. Brendan Moloney making a rare appearance in the place of Gunter, who was apparently feeling tired after Saturday. I get quit annoyed when professional sports people claim to be too tired to do what they are paid to do. McKenna returned to the team too in the place of Majewski. Tudgay returned in place of Boyd


The first half turned out to be one of the most largely forgettable halves of football you will ever see, save for the red card that shown to Bartley around the half hour mark. The challenge bore a few hallmarks of the Cohen incident, and its ironic something should come up so soon. Bartley and Chambers went for the same ball, but Bartley seemed to be lunging in. Chambers went down writhing and McKenna was straight in at Bartley accusingly. Like the Leeds game there will be comments suggesting the reactions of players and the like got the man sent off rather than the refs decision. It is hard to say though the ref did blow up immediately.

The red card did give Forest an advantage though, one they took a long time to take. The Reds pretty much had one good effort on target in the first half. McGugan twisted andturned on the edge, firing low, but Brian Jensen saved somewhat easily. Previous efforts had been very tame or just plain straight awful, Earnshaw with an audacious but abysmal effort from range springs to mind. Burnley similarly had few chances in an even first half. Camp saving well with his feet from one in particular

The second half,a little delayed by Burnley being a little tardy for the second half and the match opened up a little. McCleary was running at the opposition more and getting a little more joy getting in behind the defence. McGugan was looking brighter. However, Tudgay had put in a rather lacklustre performance, seemingly uninterested. A number of efforts were made that were easily picked off by Jensen, Earnshaw and McCleary specifically.

The best effort had come from McGugan free kick. His powerful goal bound effort saved one handedly by Jensen, his save wasn't as good as it first looked as he merely palmed it back out into the vicinity of an unmarked Earnshaw, who headed onto the bar from close in. He really should have done better.

Around 70 minutes in and Forest make the vital change. Majewski and McGoldrick came on for Moussi and Tudgay. The change that did just that, changed the game. No more than 2 minutes after his arrival McGoldrick was celebrating in front of the Trent End. McGugan powered in a free kick from the edge of the area, out wide on the left wing. McGoldrick who tucked it in to put the Reds ahead. They were good money for their lead having most of the second half.

Burnley themselves right after had a chance to take the lead, a cross sent over to Iwelumo who had come for Burnley. He headed from a central position but Camp made the save. It only added to the stress in the City Ground. The fans did not feel comfortable. A palpable sense of apprehension emanating from the support.

Forest sealed the win when McGoldrick got his second of the game. An attack down the right, and Earnshaw, surprisingly didn't shoot but squared to McGoldrick, who netted the goal that seized the game. He did actually scuff the shot somewhat, but that probably helped it beat Jensen. Being the 92nd minute this put the game beyond any doubt.

And so a win again for Forest, and right on time. Had we failed here the playoff dream would most certainly be over. As it is we remain just1 point behind Leeds, who are similarly slipping. Any result against Norwich and things are looking good. This may well be the spur to Forest succeeding.

It was mentioned that Forest may have a number of players who have been out returning to the team. I say returning, in the case of Findley it's an introduction. It might be just the catalyst we need.
Look out for the podcast recorded after the game tomorrow.