For the whole of January I have restrained from having my say on whats been happening with Hobbs. Following the too and fro about where his future is lying and what or wasn't the deal we had in place for the central defender was.
Until today.
Today it has all reached a head. Hobbs was recalled by Hull, as we all know by now. We also all know that last week Fawaz tweeted he had reached a deal with Hull for the defender. So something in that time has changed or gone wrong.
Here is where the conjecture starts in earnest.
On the one hand there are those who have seen this for what it potentially is. Hull have a defensive cover crisis with the James Chester injury. They have a defender very much in form who they had a right to recall from his loan as there was no permanent deal in place. They have done as much today. They are within their rights, he is their property.
Then there are those who believe there are more sinister forces at work in all of this. That Hull are forcing our hand to go for a deal now instead of all the wrangling that has been going off up till now. They want us to fork out that fee now, rather than the potential arrangements (believed to a be a fee payable once h completes his loan to avoid paying a percentage to Leicester in sell on fees.) Again they are within their rights to do so, but the waters of how morale this get a little murky.
There is also an argument to say that Hobbs stock has risen and when he negotiated with Forest on the deal it wasn't the same terms he had agreed in the summer on the longevity of the deal. Reading were willing to pay more. Hobbs therefore wanted to be paid more (and again rightly so, but then reneging on a gentleman's agreement it seems) And therefore we were not able to finalise a deal meaning he returns to Hull.
All of which must be of interest to Reading. Surely they will make a new move.,
Unless of course this was all a legit move to bring back cover for injuries, in which case it's all academic.
Whats apparent is we should have stopped wrangling and just got a deal in place, but then there's new arguments on trying to get value or just stumping large pots of cash for deals which might not be best value.
Confused? I am. It all makes sense but thinking off all the various permutations and consequences of this just addles to brain.
What is apparent is Hobbs is now no longer at present a Forest player.
Showing posts with label Hull City. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hull City. Show all posts
Friday, January 24, 2014
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Are Burnley Really Our Bogey Club?
As we approach the big match against Burnley this week it reminds that Burnley are somewhat regarded as one of our bogey clubs. Half the time its unexplainable and we simply just say, yeah they are our bogey clubs. But is there any truth?
We all have that association between knowing that sometimes we will just beat a team, like we are often other team’s bogey teams. I remember when I was a kid Wimbledon seemed to have a hold over us, but then everyone struggled at Plough Lane. In a more modern context Walsall are oft cited as being a bogey club, as well until more recently Doncaster Rovers.
You could argue of course, especially in recent lights Blackpool are of course one, they just beat us, there was that playoff semi final, it just feels like they always win, but Burnley for me is just one of those teams who seem to win all the time. It’s a hard place to go, and they quite often give us a good game or a beating down at the City Ground (I remember them singing is there a fire drill 2 years ago or so as we limped to an insipid defeat under Cotterill)
| Are Burnley Our Bogey Team? |
I have decided to try and run some Excel jiggerypokery to it all. The results may well be interesting. For the interests of a cut off point I decided use our re-arrival in the Championship as a neat point.
We ran a matrix of results and then ran three tests against those. Namely who beat us most often, who we scored the least points against, and who we had the least wins against.There were 38 teams we have played in that period. I cut off Cup Games and Playoff matches because well these pressure games stand alone from the usual range of a normal season. Also we have ignored the games this season as it's unfair to compare teams we have played this season and those we haven't, It'd skew the data
Teams We Lost Most Against.
A simple measure would be counting who we lost most often against.
Top 10 Losses
Burnley 5
Cardiff 5
Derby 5
Hull 4
Watford 4
Birmingham 3
Doncaster 3
Leeds 3
Leicester 3
So even on a first pass we can see Burnley is a thorn in the side, alongside Derby and Cardiff. But that isn’t a true picture. We have played some times more than others.
A simple percentage of games we lost show the following
Top 10 % Losses
West Ham 100%
Hull 66.67%
Burnley 62.50%
Birmingham 50%
Blackburn 50%
Cardiff 50%
Derby 50%
Leeds 50%
Newcastle 50%
Norwich 50%
Portsmouth 50%
Southampton 50%
WBA 50%
Wolves 50%
Which isn’t too accurate because, well, we only played West Ham twice in the Championship? So breaking that down by removing teams we played for only 2 seasons of fixtures against shows this.
Top 10 % Losses Frequently played)
Hull 66.67%
Burnley 62.5%
Birmingham 50%
Cardiff 50%
Derby 50%
Leeds 50%
Watford 40%
Doncaster 37.5%
Leicester 37.5%
We lose a higher percentage of games against Hull than we do Burnley. But they remain our biggest foe in this division at present. But that’s only one type of illustration. There is the also the following.
Points Scored Against OppositionFor this it’s simple a case of dividing the games played against the points scored to get a true picture of how we do in addition to defeats. (PPG means points per game)
Top 10 Lowest PPG
West Ham 0
Blackburn 0.5
Hull 0.67
Brighton 0.75
Birmingham 0.83
Burnley 0.88
Blackpool 1
Bolton 1
Norwich 1
Sheff Utd 1
Again like before this is without removing teams we hardly ever played, but yeah West Ham and Blackburn seem to have holds on us.
In terms of teams we played more often
Top 10 Lowest PPG (frequently)
Hull 0.67
Birmingham 0.83
Burnley 0.88
Blackpool 1
Sheffield United 1
Cardiff 1.1
Derby 1.1
Doncaster 1.13
Leicester 1.13
Hull and Birmingham are far worse bogey clubs in a simple points scored ratio. We just seem to draw a lot more against Birmingham than lose. If we factored in this season Brighton would now be removed, but it’s unfair to include teams we have played this season against teams we haven’t.
Finally, how about how many times we beat teams.
How Often We Beat Teams
These are the teams we have the least wins against. It’s just a simple count so yes, is skewed.
Top 10 Least Wins
Blackburn 0
Bolton 0
Brighton 0
West ham 0
Birmingham 1
Blackpool 1
Huddersfield 1
Hull 1
Newcastle 1
Norwich 1
QPR 1
Sheff Utd 1
WBA 1
Represented as a percentage it looks like this
Top 10 Least Wins %
Blackburn 0%
Bolton 0%
Brighton 0%
West ham 0%
Blackpool 12.5%
Birmingham 16.67%Hull 16.67%
QPR 16.67%Sheffield United 16.67%
When we remove the teams we played less than 5 times it looks like this
Blackpool 12.5%
Birmingham 16.67%
Hull 16.67%
QPR 16.67%
Sheffield United 16.67%
Burnley 25%
Doncaster 25%
Leicester 25%
So actually Blackpool and Birmingham are the teams we win least against. Burnley for that matter we do get wins against (and tellingly at home) Birmingham are a surprising one in those stats.
If you factor all 3 together, Burnley pound for pound seem to be the biggest bogey club currently in the division, but Birmingham and Hull have been problems. Thankfully Hull got promoted, and Birmingham has started having serious problems so in that regard aren’t the force they always were. It’s interesting that considering other teams that Doncaster appear a few times in these lists and Derby and Leicester too. The likes of Reading and other big teams we play at this level don’t appear to be the problem you’d think they are, and Ipswich for instance are a team we have extremely good record against (incidentally the best team for scoring points against is Peterborough)
So yes, Burnley are a bogey club, and add to that their form, we can expect astern challenge on Saturday. However 2 out of the last 3 seasons we have beaten them at home, so that’s on our side. But for once fan opinion is accurate for once.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Whisper It No Longer, Promotion is a Real Possibility
Although I looked at the issue before and made certain projections and guesses about what we would need for promotion, I have tried to remain somewhat calmer on the issue than deciding that we are on the up. With some very dangerous fixtures coming up there were plenty of pitfalls and traps to stop our bid to reach the playoffs.
Well, things change. Not only have we overcome a very tricky fixture that I had factored at best as a draw, and a potential defeat, but the possibility of surpassing even the playoff aim remains very real. Not just real, but also within our grasp.
I scoffed not long ago at people suggesting we could make it. With 10 games left we’d need 31 points to reach the average points tally for promotion, and would need to win 8 games to reach the lowest over the last few years. But this year’s championship is a strange beast. Compare the points range to League One for instance and it is frankly scary. Anyone below 9th is embroiled in a relegation scrap. Above and it’s all open save for Cardiff moving clear at the top. 15 points spate the playoffs from relegation give or take. Derby in 9th would be the mire had they not beaten Leicester hovering 2 points above the drop in around 19th. The lower mid table is that tight. In League 1 the range is more like 30 points between playoffs and relegation.
What that suggests is 1, how tight the league really is, and 2 that such a thin spread of points means that the points needed to go up, might drop accordingly. Everyone seems so keen to slip up that it leaves the race wide open.
And now following that away win at Hull it is on. The race is open, and we’re driving a big tree shaped object right into that gap. I haven’t looked at the odds but over the last few weeks our odds must have tumbled quite dramatically. We still remain an outside by position and by our fixtures. But that forgets the momentum we have built.
Unfortunately the international break may well scupper that. Some are saying it will be a rest and a break to reinvigorate forgetting that we have our fair share of internationals that will be off representing their various nationalities. It’s only a break if you aren’t playing, and Guedioura, Cox, Lansbury and Majewski, all pivotal players in recent weeks will be off with their nationalities. I’ve tried to find out if Jara is away with Chile but the squad lists I found aren’t conclusive. But that’s an integral core of the squad who won’t be getting rests or having their feet up as many seem to think the international break is for, but instead will be busy.
Davies had spoke about the players looking leggy, but bear in mind he hasn’t rotated people at all to counteract that in the midfield or defence. Up front has seen various changes to combat injury, illness or specific targets the team wants. Bear in mind the one position struggling to hit the high levels expected is the one where we have been rotating. The strikers have struggled to net a lot, whilst the settled midfield went on a free scoring run of form. The defence have looked more secure. So the notion they need a rest for looking leggy is already looking slightly misplaced. The midfield was rotated earlier this season and didn’t reap the rewards of a settled structure and personnel.
The win against Hull has firmly established our credentials as promotion chasers, even for Claridge and Manish Bhasin to contend we are in there. Not just because of our form, but the fact the rest of the contenders seem intent on not going up. Watford, Leicester, Middlesbrough, Palace have all gone onto dodgy form, Brighton wavered until yesterday and we know about Hull. So not only are we hitting form, but everyone else is losing theirs.
The win on Saturday may well have been a backs to the wall job late on, and Bruce may rightfully claim they could and should have got more out of it, but you have to score those chances you get which Hull didn’t. It was always going to happen that Boyd scored for Hull after the whole Eye-gate thing at the end of January, but that episode bought about where we are today indirectly. And under McLeish we would have wilted. Instead we buckled down, got a goal through big Darius, and then snuck a winner and battled to a win clearing off the line in the last moments after McGugans goal. Radio Nottingham spoke of a slice of luck, and that occasionally you need to utilise it, and we surely did that on Saturday.
We could easily have only taken a point from that, and I think many would have been content with that, but as the wins continue to come so does the level of expectation rise, and I hope that doesn’t lead to pressure implosion we sometimes see with Forest, usually in the playoffs. We’ve played with the pressure firmly off of late. And we have reaped the rewards. The pressure will be on in a new way soon. And now we have to manage that. The fairweathers who demand wins for the few games they go to, as they only come out when we’re winning will be out in their droves. We just need make sure these legacies of the past; of imploding when the pressure and focus comes back to us doesn’t happen again. Maybe that’s why an under the radar, unheralded run has helped. No-one really saw us as contenders. Now they do, and so do we.
Well, things change. Not only have we overcome a very tricky fixture that I had factored at best as a draw, and a potential defeat, but the possibility of surpassing even the playoff aim remains very real. Not just real, but also within our grasp.
I scoffed not long ago at people suggesting we could make it. With 10 games left we’d need 31 points to reach the average points tally for promotion, and would need to win 8 games to reach the lowest over the last few years. But this year’s championship is a strange beast. Compare the points range to League One for instance and it is frankly scary. Anyone below 9th is embroiled in a relegation scrap. Above and it’s all open save for Cardiff moving clear at the top. 15 points spate the playoffs from relegation give or take. Derby in 9th would be the mire had they not beaten Leicester hovering 2 points above the drop in around 19th. The lower mid table is that tight. In League 1 the range is more like 30 points between playoffs and relegation.
What that suggests is 1, how tight the league really is, and 2 that such a thin spread of points means that the points needed to go up, might drop accordingly. Everyone seems so keen to slip up that it leaves the race wide open.
And now following that away win at Hull it is on. The race is open, and we’re driving a big tree shaped object right into that gap. I haven’t looked at the odds but over the last few weeks our odds must have tumbled quite dramatically. We still remain an outside by position and by our fixtures. But that forgets the momentum we have built.
Unfortunately the international break may well scupper that. Some are saying it will be a rest and a break to reinvigorate forgetting that we have our fair share of internationals that will be off representing their various nationalities. It’s only a break if you aren’t playing, and Guedioura, Cox, Lansbury and Majewski, all pivotal players in recent weeks will be off with their nationalities. I’ve tried to find out if Jara is away with Chile but the squad lists I found aren’t conclusive. But that’s an integral core of the squad who won’t be getting rests or having their feet up as many seem to think the international break is for, but instead will be busy.
Davies had spoke about the players looking leggy, but bear in mind he hasn’t rotated people at all to counteract that in the midfield or defence. Up front has seen various changes to combat injury, illness or specific targets the team wants. Bear in mind the one position struggling to hit the high levels expected is the one where we have been rotating. The strikers have struggled to net a lot, whilst the settled midfield went on a free scoring run of form. The defence have looked more secure. So the notion they need a rest for looking leggy is already looking slightly misplaced. The midfield was rotated earlier this season and didn’t reap the rewards of a settled structure and personnel.
The win against Hull has firmly established our credentials as promotion chasers, even for Claridge and Manish Bhasin to contend we are in there. Not just because of our form, but the fact the rest of the contenders seem intent on not going up. Watford, Leicester, Middlesbrough, Palace have all gone onto dodgy form, Brighton wavered until yesterday and we know about Hull. So not only are we hitting form, but everyone else is losing theirs.
The win on Saturday may well have been a backs to the wall job late on, and Bruce may rightfully claim they could and should have got more out of it, but you have to score those chances you get which Hull didn’t. It was always going to happen that Boyd scored for Hull after the whole Eye-gate thing at the end of January, but that episode bought about where we are today indirectly. And under McLeish we would have wilted. Instead we buckled down, got a goal through big Darius, and then snuck a winner and battled to a win clearing off the line in the last moments after McGugans goal. Radio Nottingham spoke of a slice of luck, and that occasionally you need to utilise it, and we surely did that on Saturday.
We could easily have only taken a point from that, and I think many would have been content with that, but as the wins continue to come so does the level of expectation rise, and I hope that doesn’t lead to pressure implosion we sometimes see with Forest, usually in the playoffs. We’ve played with the pressure firmly off of late. And we have reaped the rewards. The pressure will be on in a new way soon. And now we have to manage that. The fairweathers who demand wins for the few games they go to, as they only come out when we’re winning will be out in their droves. We just need make sure these legacies of the past; of imploding when the pressure and focus comes back to us doesn’t happen again. Maybe that’s why an under the radar, unheralded run has helped. No-one really saw us as contenders. Now they do, and so do we.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Forest Rise to Beat Royals After Hull Slip

I have been fairly busy these past few days and have barely had a chance to be able to collect my thoughts, let alone put them down on page, so for that I am sorry and only now I can begin to talk about two very dour games. This should be easy, because there isn't that much to talk about.
The Hull game could have gone either way to be honest. Both teams not exactly playing at their best. Hull had a game plan to strangle the game and that they did. The chances were few are far between.
Hull of course ended our unbeaten run last season, and with two members of that squad on their bench in Adebola and McKenna it was possibly unsurprising that it was them that ended Cotterills admittedly short but pleasurable unbeaten start to Forest managership.
When of course those two came off the bench for the second half the fear is that either will score. In fact McKenna would set up the goal for Hull, after a particular unpleasurable bout of head tennis he nodded through for McLean to score for Hull, not long someone near me said that how rubbish he is compared to how he was at Peterborough, thanks for jinxing it.
That came after our best effort of the game which was a medium range left footed Majewski drive which the keeper saved. Probably our best effort of the game.
All in all not a classic but I have seen far worse games.
Which leads neatly on to Tuesdays night events, which really push that mantle of worst game ever close (which goes to Forest v Stoke on New Year’s Day a few years ago) it just had a feel of the both sides, both fans and even the officials not really being arsed to try. It would explain the ref’s inability to punish Reading for taking so long over throw ins early on.
Miller had of course mad way through injury for Findley to make a start, I hoped to see more use of his supposed pace, but I have yet to really see him outpace any defender in the way that Tyson and Darcheville used to.
This game as said was largely horrendous, with bad passing, especially from Moussi being a key component of both teams abject performance. We did have the ball in the net early through Tudgay, which was disallowed for offside, and McAnuff had a dipping cross that hit the bar, and that was largely that, with the crowd fairly disgruntled but no unhappy enough to boo at half time.
The second half saw Reid replace Majewski and it created new options, for one the ability of someone to cross which had been missing. Tudgay had one shot on target from range in the second half of note, and not else much else sticks out till Tudgay scored. McGugan fed Chambers, who crossed for Tudgay to take it down swivel and finish.
Reading at the death, and let’s remember that Reading and at the death are phrases that nearly haunted us last season when they came back and nicked a game last season in that particularly ropey run in early spring when our playoff hopes looked to be imploding) Hunt had a close range header which Camp parried well away from goal to maintain our win. Three wins in four is a commendable record regardless for any manager, but when we were so poor before it speaks volumes for the way Cotterill has silenced early critics.
All in all two forgettable games, but progress is visible for all to see.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Post Hull Pocast
The pod reflect on their first defeat, Nigel Clough and whether his wife is gypsy and whether it will be playoffs or automatic promotion.
Podcast available from the following sources
To download
http://www.sendspace.com/file/z8k543
Youtube version.
Podcast available from the following sources
To download
http://www.sendspace.com/file/z8k543
Youtube version.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Unbeaten Home Run Ended by Hull
It's a strange sensation to write a match report following a home game where we haven't won. It'sa new sensation in fact, seeing as the last home defeat we had this websitedidn't even exist.
Not that Forest deserved tolose, theresult is somewhatharshon the Reds, who were not the worse team, however it is by the same token not overly surprising. We have looked shaky in recent week, the Preston game as stark warning as any that City Grounds fortress status was in jeopardy.
36 games unbeaten at home is as good a run as we are likely to see and we should celebrate this run rather than now mourn the ending of this magnificent feat. Make no mistake, this run has carried usto where we are, asall know what parlous state our away form was in for pretty much all of 2010.
Forest fielded a 4-4-2 in the traditional sense, of playing flat across the middle., although Anderson and McGugan were encouraged to switch wings.

Hull set their stall out tostop our creativeness, Forest fielding by force an attacking midfield full flair, but no steel. McKenna had picked up a knock and so missed out forcing Cohen into that role instead of his usual box to box midfielder. The game did see the welcome return of Paul Konchesky at left back though, and Julian Bennett making a rare appearance amongst the substitutes.
Forest shouldhave probably taken the lead very early on,a defensive error left him free to fire a volley in the penalty area. This shot was blazed over though. In hindsight,it should have at least got on target, but being so early in the match it felt like this would be a good match for Forest. Alas.
That being said the first half saw usas the only team to make any chances or look anything like breaking the deadlock. Camp had nothing to do other than watch as Forest created several chances which were all spurned.
Earnshaw particularly was getting in the right place, but couldn't finish, and Majewski has a powerful effort blocked by a Hull defender, and Tudgay headed over from a Gunter cross. Apart from this the half was largely forgettable.
The second wassomehwat more equal,Hull creating more in front of the support. Having nullified Forest for the first half, they could be more adventurous and go for a win themselves. In a striker like Fryatt they had someone who remains always dangerous if anonymous for large periods,and that is exactly what happened. Hulls goal came from good fortune more than anything, a long clearance forward was intended to go differently, more a looping ball up, however its course was drastically changed by a deflection off Cohen, this ricochet took it straight to Fryatt on a run at goal, and his finish into the bottom left hand corner was perfect. If that ball had spun any differently on its course I doubt that the chance would have come in the way it had and been finished, but that's football. And Hull certainly weren't complaining.
This created a nervous crowd, and for a while I haven't seen a crowd at Forest be like this. They were quick to seize on errors and rather than encourage often howls of derision were more easily heard. The team were not booed off which is pleasing, unlike some of the boos in the Preston game from £10 wonders turning up to to their one game a year. Instead they were applauded off and rightly, but that's an aside.
Forest weren't without their second half chances. McGugan had a volley from Majewski corner blocked. Think Paul Scholes a few years ago and that's what they were trying. It could have worked, but there were too many people in the way. Forest's tactics at corners had to be changed from the usual. Hull left two men up at each corner, on each wing, forcing us to drop Wes back to cover and avoid a potential one on one, and this meant we didn't have the threat from corners we usually do. A clever tactic from Hull.
Forest threw on McCleary for the largely ineffectual McGugan, and Rodney for Earnshaw who was quiet in the second half. This raised a few eye brows, that we would use the raw youngster rather than put on Adebola or McGoldrick, but he chased hard, and what he may have lacked in finesse he made up for with effort. McCleary made a difference with his direct running and on several occasions put the ball in from beating the full back,take note Paul Anderson, who again never looked like beating anyone, or able to put in a cross of much threat. Adebola was also introduced to make a difference and big Wes thrown up front in the chase for goals.
Our best chance came in injury time when Majewski put the ball narrowly wide from an angle. From my position in the top of the Trent End it looked sure to bulge the back of the net. It missed. Gunter also had a good chance after finding himself in the penalty area before that, which Gerrard blocked.
Hull for the most part had wasted a lot of time, more so when Mannone in goal was unable to take kicks, leaving them to a centre back, it almost resembled schoolboy football seeing this. And many of these kicks were poor and went out of play leading the the resurgent ooooooohhhhhh cheer on each kick. If only we could bring back the boing boing for each header afterwards too.
And that was that. The run was over, Forest tasting a rare home defeat. It may serve as a collective kick up the bums. However the team did look dog tired. And with so many people out I will too join the call for a new recruit, but as with Billy, lets not just get anyone in. Some players will start to come back soon, Moussi believed to be a matter of a couple of weeks away. I'd also hope Findley soon is ready to begin his Forest career.
Yes a defeat but not one to be too downhearted about. Forest weren't poor, we just couldn't finish. Hull took their chance well.The run is over and I worry it may be a catalyst for other teams to up their game. We struggle against teams who stop us playing the quality of football we know we can, and they make it hard for us to break them down. It was good though to see most of our fellow promotion contenders also slipup. A collective slip by all, and that Joe Garner was the man who scored for Scunthorpe to beat Swansea was pleasing.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Konchesky to Return
Paul Konchesky is set to make his return on saturday for Forest against Hull, easing a selection headache at left back.
Joel Lynch injured himself on Tuesday in the draw at Middlesbrough and it looked like either Gunter or Cohen may have to fill in the left back berth, but Konchesky has declared himself fit and able to play against the Tigers.
The first fears when he was injured against Preston was a 2 or 3 week lay off, but his return less than 2weeks after that match will be a welcome boost to the Reds.
Of the other injured players, none of those appear set to return, Moussi and Findley will still be out for a while.
Hull will be without Brad Guzan whose loan has expired and has returned to Aston Villa
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