The Season So Far

I have decided this morning to look at how far we have come this season and where we might be looking at going to.

One of the main things about considering the season so far seems to be dependent on your viewpoint. A ridiculously straightforward thing to say but it’s true. There are the ones who seem constantly down on the club. They are the ones who think we will be mid table at best, that without a killer striker we can’t possibly finish high up, despite the evidence of past seasons where clubs have done perfectly well without one main goal scorer. I mean let’s be clear, do you really want reliance on one main goal scorer? That’s incredibly dangerous to be reliant on that player remaining injury free. Had Murray been injured for Palace for a long long period last season then who else would have scored? I feel it’s incredibly myopic to think you have to have that one goal scorer rather than the team sharing the goal scoring duties.

There are those who are incredibly optimistic. These same ones think Billy can do no wrong. They kind of take an opposite view to the dismal view crowd. They think we’re on the cusp of a 20 game unbeaten run, that the strikers will find their form and that will ride the crest of a Garibaldi coloured wave all the way to the Promised Land that is the Premiership.

Both are legit views. Both though are incredibly simplistic.

We are in 4th place. Let’s not make any illusion here, that’s exactly the kind of position we would want and expect to be. QPR for their budget and players will be expected to run off. I’ve always thought we will be looking at a best of the rest deal. We have a decent sized squad with cover in most positions, save for maybe someone to cover for Chalobah in the deep lying role. Up front we have options to rotate and try things even if people decide who do have aren’t good enough.

Considering that in early June, some of the more tightly sprung of our clubs fans were reacting angrily. We hadn’t signed anyone, the kit was released, we had no sponsor etc. What we have bought in have been quality additions in the guises of Hobbs, Abdoun, Lichaj etc. We have extremely capable cover in the likes of Jara and Paterson. Overall we are better than we were last season. We have enough depth to completely ignore and keep in the reserves players like Miller, and Gillett. That wasn’t an option last season.

So things are way better than they were. The only reason everyone seems down on everything is the constant barrage of negative press from a media angry that we have decided to ignore them. Otherwise then surely we’d be all signing from the rooftops about how great this is all going. I mentioned it before after the Bournemouth game, but Colin fray had said it. If we had held on against Bournemouth, the whole mindset and reaction would have been different. Yes people would have moaned about missing chances, but not the level of frustration I have seen spill out onto social media. The suggestions that this could cost us promotion, and don’t get me wrong I do see that a possibility, but to write off a season in October because your strikers failed in a game is a little bit premature to say the least.

If you had offered me that in late October we’d be 4th, having beat Derby and the result of that was them sacking their manager and employing McClaren I’d thought that Carlsberg were doing Football Seasons. The only reason for the frustrations is that you’ve seen what might have been in a few places. A goal here or there and we could be even higher up. And that’s football. What might have been, it’s what drags us back time and time again. The season’s aims are still possible folks. It’s on.

The International Breaks Killer Effect

I said it at the time that I worried the International break would kill our momentum, I’ve mentioned it at length during many posts in the post game synopsis lately, but there are the cold hard facts. Since the break we, out of the playoff contenders are on the second worse form. Only Palace are in a worse vein of form than us.


To look at it in context Charlton, though unlikely to make the playoffs, being 4/5 points off the chase with 2 go are the inform side in the pack. I have looked at what the various teams have done since the break, and though hardly any are on stellar form it has completely killed our momentum. And it’s not as if we were the only squad to lose people to international squads, we all pretty much have squads with them in.

Although no-one completely recovered from the break form wise, we had ours shot to pieces. 0 wins and 4 draws since then with 2 losses. We had that run of games before the break which were all wins, and that includes the likes of Hull. Post break and we can’t beat anyone.

That 2 week break allowed teams to prepare and understand our game. Additionally, if you won 3 days or 7days previously you have a psychological edge. Going into games after 2 weeks, well it’s almost a clean slate in terms of that Psychologically the last game was so long ago that a break either sets you back, as in our case, or apparently sets you free and gives you a fresh start as with Charlton.

Going purely on a post break table of playoff chasers, it looks like this.
1. Charlton 14points
2. Bolton 12 Points
3. Brighton 10p
4. Watford 8p
5. Leicester 6p
6. Forest 4p
7. Palace 2p

So by that basis, if we’re playing for 4 spots, and you almost rule of Charlton due to distance behind (and I’m including them only as an illustration of a point) we would deserve to miss out with Palace. Palace have admittedly in that time played only 5 games whilst the rest have all played 6, so it might even be that we’d be bottom of that table if based on 6 matches.

So it’s obvious to me that the break killed the momentum we had built, and ultimately may cost us. There’s no guarantee of that of course, it’s also quite possible we’d have started losing sooner, but the whole naive argument that it’s the break the players wanted is and was frankly ridiculous. When you hear anything players say when they are on form games can’t come soon enough, not let’s have a nice long gap. Think of anything you do in any sphere of life, when you’re on fire or in the zone you want and need to keep going. Any kind of break in that will cause a proverbial bump in the road.

I don’t think our great form would have carried on indefinitely, but look at the evidence in front of us. Failing to beat mediocre teams, whimpering performances. Before the break we were on the cusp of history and a new all time winning run. Now we are in the worst run of form this season (if we count games without a win.) Nothing’s changed. The personnel are the same, but that emotion and that wave of optimism that was created were allowed to end due to the time off. We have retreated back to the McLeish games now. Davies got us motivated, set us up on fire. But that could only last so long.

Yes people and Davies said we had looked leggy before the break, but no worse than other teams, and that’s what a squad is for. To be able to cover or rotate to rest the odd players. The fact is it wasn’t really a break to several key players, who were international duty, and who picked up knocks (Lansbury) or got punched by Suarez (Jara) There is still lots of travel and training to cover for. And some people seem to think the rest of the players didn’t train and just have their feet up whilst colleagues jet around the world. It’s scarily naive.

All we need is to break this slump and win the next two games, which is somewhat against the odds now to hopefully break back into the top 6. Though fate is out of our hands, we can certainly pile pressure on this Saturday with a win. The worry is a losing mentality has set in, but that said, the evidence of last week is they haven’t given up. Yes we didn’t win, but we created those chances and but for the width of a post would have won. It isn’t over till the fat lady sings, and I don’t hear any singing yet.

Whisper It No Longer, Promotion is a Real Possibility

Although I looked at the issue before and made certain projections and guesses about what we would need for promotion, I have tried to remain somewhat calmer on the issue than deciding that we are on the up. With some very dangerous fixtures coming up there were plenty of pitfalls and traps to stop our bid to reach the playoffs.


Well, things change. Not only have we overcome a very tricky fixture that I had factored at best as a draw, and a potential defeat, but the possibility of surpassing even the playoff aim remains very real. Not just real, but also within our grasp.

I scoffed not long ago at people suggesting we could make it. With 10 games left we’d need 31 points to reach the average points tally for promotion, and would need to win 8 games to reach the lowest over the last few years. But this year’s championship is a strange beast. Compare the points range to League One for instance and it is frankly scary. Anyone below 9th is embroiled in a relegation scrap. Above and it’s all open save for Cardiff moving clear at the top. 15 points spate the playoffs from relegation give or take. Derby in 9th would be the mire had they not beaten Leicester hovering 2 points above the drop in around 19th. The lower mid table is that tight. In League 1 the range is more like 30 points between playoffs and relegation.

What that suggests is 1, how tight the league really is, and 2 that such a thin spread of points means that the points needed to go up, might drop accordingly. Everyone seems so keen to slip up that it leaves the race wide open.

And now following that away win at Hull it is on. The race is open, and we’re driving a big tree shaped object right into that gap. I haven’t looked at the odds but over the last few weeks our odds must have tumbled quite dramatically. We still remain an outside by position and by our fixtures. But that forgets the momentum we have built.

Unfortunately the international break may well scupper that. Some are saying it will be a rest and a break to reinvigorate forgetting that we have our fair share of internationals that will be off representing their various nationalities. It’s only a break if you aren’t playing, and Guedioura, Cox, Lansbury and Majewski, all pivotal players in recent weeks will be off with their nationalities. I’ve tried to find out if Jara is away with Chile but the squad lists I found aren’t conclusive. But that’s an integral core of the squad who won’t be getting rests or having their feet up as many seem to think the international break is for, but instead will be busy.

Davies had spoke about the players looking leggy, but bear in mind he hasn’t rotated people at all to counteract that in the midfield or defence. Up front has seen various changes to combat injury, illness or specific targets the team wants. Bear in mind the one position struggling to hit the high levels expected is the one where we have been rotating. The strikers have struggled to net a lot, whilst the settled midfield went on a free scoring run of form. The defence have looked more secure. So the notion they need a rest for looking leggy is already looking slightly misplaced. The midfield was rotated earlier this season and didn’t reap the rewards of a settled structure and personnel.

The win against Hull has firmly established our credentials as promotion chasers, even for Claridge and Manish Bhasin to contend we are in there. Not just because of our form, but the fact the rest of the contenders seem intent on not going up. Watford, Leicester, Middlesbrough, Palace have all gone onto dodgy form, Brighton wavered until yesterday and we know about Hull. So not only are we hitting form, but everyone else is losing theirs.

The win on Saturday may well have been a backs to the wall job late on, and Bruce may rightfully claim they could and should have got more out of it, but you have to score those chances you get which Hull didn’t. It was always going to happen that Boyd scored for Hull after the whole Eye-gate thing at the end of January, but that episode bought about where we are today indirectly. And under McLeish we would have wilted. Instead we buckled down, got a goal through big Darius, and then snuck a winner and battled to a win clearing off the line in the last moments after McGugans goal. Radio Nottingham spoke of a slice of luck, and that occasionally you need to utilise it, and we surely did that on Saturday.

We could easily have only taken a point from that, and I think many would have been content with that, but as the wins continue to come so does the level of expectation rise, and I hope that doesn’t lead to pressure implosion we sometimes see with Forest, usually in the playoffs. We’ve played with the pressure firmly off of late. And we have reaped the rewards. The pressure will be on in a new way soon. And now we have to manage that. The fairweathers who demand wins for the few games they go to, as they only come out when we’re winning will be out in their droves. We just need make sure these legacies of the past; of imploding when the pressure and focus comes back to us doesn’t happen again. Maybe that’s why an under the radar, unheralded run has helped. No-one really saw us as contenders. Now they do, and so do we.

The Path to the Playoffs and Where Forest Need to Win (or Lose)

Ok, so every season isn’t the same, and this season might see a new record low or high points needed, or hell a different average, but we here at Forest 24-7 have been making some calculations to see what is needed to get promoted (hey, we are the form team in the division right now) or to just reach the lottery that is the playoffs.


What has been exposed is that on average we have left a charge for the automatic spots too late. In an average season even if we won all our remaining fixtures we would be left short points wise by a single one. Now Ok, this season might be different, but themes the facts.

Additionally I don’t think any fan with a modicum of sense is actually thinking we can currently go for top two. Maybe a few delusional extremists, but the large core know this is probably now beyond us.

But what of the playoffs? In an average season 73 points are needed based on the last 5 years. Two of those years 70 points is all that’s been required. We currently have 54. So on average that’s 19 points. Although could be as little as 16 points. Which is basically 3 points either way leeway. Based on going somewhere just below the bottom we reckon going for 20 points might be doable. But this is where things get trickier. That means winning 6, drawing 2 and allowing for 2 defeats. That would certainly be promotion form. Well let’s look at the remaining fixtures.

Nottm Forest V Wolves

Sat 9 Mar 15:00

Hull V Nottm Forest

Sat 16 Mar 15:00

Nottm Forest V Brighton

Sat 30 Mar 15:00

Burnley V Nottm Forest

Mon 1 Apr 15:00

Nottm Forest V Blackpool

Sat 6 Apr 15:00

Cardiff V Nottm Forest

Sat 13 Apr 15:00

Middlesbrough V Nottm Forest

Tue 16 Apr 19:45

Nottm Forest V Barnsley

Sat 20 Apr 15:00

Millwall V Nottm Forest

Sat 27 Apr 15:00

Nottm Forest V Leicester

Now the Championship being the Championship, it is very hard to predict who will do what and when. It is notorious for anyone being able to beat anyone, and as such bankers are not always what they seem. That said if we need 6 wins, you have to identify the fact we have 5 homes left. 2 of those against struggling opposition. This includes 2 promotion chasing teams, Brighton and potentially the last say Playoff shootout between us and Leicester. As I said for simplicity sake, these we will pencil in as wins for now

Leaving another win and 2 draws required. Now we have two winnable away games, Burnley and Millwall, but let’s say for arguments sake we only need win one, Milwall is the harder place to go. Middlesbrough and Cardiff are not on great form, but their league positions, as well as Hull suggest that between these 3 we could absorb the two defeats we potentially can absorb. However on the crest we are currently on and on paper, the Hull game is the one I’d fancy us to maybe get something from.

Similarly should we fail to beat Leicester or Brighton, then you could look to the Burnley & Millwall games as both being wins.

This is all as I say basically guesswork, and football is NEVER this easy. But it does show how possible it is, but also how perilously poised our hopes are hanging by small threads. But look at where we were a month ago compared to now, and this was unthinkable to sit down and work out. If we can’t dream what can we do? We could lose the easier games, end up beating Middlesbrough and Hull and throw other cats amongst the pigeons as we are then taking points off those teams we are competing against

Exciting times ahead.


Heres the Maths

Whats Needed?

Saturday has made it abundantly clear that we are nowhere near good enough to be in the mix for promotion. No matter what you think of McLeish his record speaks for itself, he knows how to take teams up out of this division. So you’d hope he needs to identify what the problem is. And yet we seem to be struggling to put together a capable team. However, that said it might not be as simple as it seems. Here we look at what might be the key to unlocking the promotion capable side.

I for one think there is no point at looking at the front line anymore. Henderson now means we have 4 strikers who are good at this level, and have proven goal scoring records to back this up.

So is the problem in the midfield? We spent all January and the previous summer saying that this position looks sorted. We had so many options, that anyone targeting it looked mad. We could have a made a team of just midfielders!! However, the ball is just not being held by the midfield and immediately putting the defence under the cosh (don’t worry we’ll come on to the defence in a moment) the way which Watford carved through the midfield before getting to the defenders was alarming. Too often standing off and letting teams play. Is the balance of 1 holding and 3 in front, although narrow, working?

A flat 4 strung across the park is what many have called for, but it’s somewhat old fashioned, and to merely suggest a straight 4-4-2 does negate the whole evolution of tactics. But is Gillett, so lauded early on, doing his role? Not any more in my mind. If you look at the great teams at the moment, they all have that holding midfielder. So for those to cite a midfield with no holding misfield as the key and the way forward (I see people citing a midfield pairing on McGugan and Majewki as an answer....) is somewhat foolish. Man City have Yaya Toure, United use Carrick, Barcelona have Busquets, Juve have Pirlo. We have Gillette. If you look at those players above, they are not only great ball players, but also physical presences. Gillett is anything but a physical presence. I was one of his biggest fans earlier this season, but for me it’s one glaring area of the team we aren't performing. But is it his fault, or is it the structure of the team. If you think of those teams utilising that role, many of them are also playing the more evolved systems whereby it’s more a hybrid of 4-5-1 with a 4-3-3. Those 2 difference between midfield and attack are neither full on strikers, but neither are they midfielders. Look at Chelsea. As well as a sole striker they have very attack minded midfielders (although 3 in this example and not the 2 I have cited) who get forward readily to support. Lampard and Ramires or Obi Mikel would then hold. The same with City. Silva and Milner can get forward to provide the service. City often use a second striker though, a more deep lying number 10. A Trequartista. Aguero or Tevez but they are shorter take this on, with Dzeko as the lump to aim at. Arsenal are a great exponent of this. Barcalona have evolved it to a point they don't even need a striker

That would mean an evolution in our team. One of the 4 strikers would play. Now McLeish has tried to drop Cox deep, but I’m not sure that works. Dexter after Saturdays performance would likely look to be dropped. Leaving Sharp. Sharp is pretty much undroppable this season, but can he play that sole role? Perhaps not, but Henderson possibly could. This is all theoretical of course. I doubt this would be implemented, but is more looking what other teams do.

So in that essence we need a new enforcing midfielder. Moussi is not that man, he is imposing and should be able to play the role, but is so maddeningly inconsistent and is prone to horrific errors to consider that. Moussi though did work well in the Davies teams as that role. If we could get his form right, we already have the right man in the squad.

As for the defence, well when I look at the best teams, my main criticism that ours is too slow almost looks redundant. However, Vidic and Ferdinand at United aren’t the fastest and at Barca, Puyol and Pique aren’t fast either. However I believe we need at least some  pace, if not someone who isn’t going to get turned easily. Watford had two smaller zippy strikers and if we play that sort of team again we might struggle. We did well against Derby because they had a big focal point striker in Sammon that we could go like for like and clear up. But if long balls aren’t going to play through, and it’s all on the ground, our defenders struggle. Ward is slow. As much as he wins most in the air, he often seems to slide in late, when he does at all. Collins I rated until recently, and probably still would, but he too is more comfortable in the air rather than defending on the ground. Would Ayala be any different? Possibly. He’s more cultured, but he still isn’t exactly pacey, and Watford last time did the same thing, when he did play. So therefore a new central defender looks like it should be a priority.

Also where we also went wrong at Watford was the midfield cover. As much as I mention Gillett he isn’t the only one to blame. The midfield doesn’t defend well, because we play narrowly, there is now natural wide protection, and when things get sucked in down the middle we are fine. Attack with semblance of width and we struggle. Look at the goals from Watford. Two came semi wide positions, balls played across. Whenever there were players running through to support and  and the attacked played a squared ball, we just didn't cope with it, but lump it up the middle and we can usually defend. No natural width means any wide protection so attackers are on our full backs without any kind of forward defence. Whereas before we would have had a McCleary, Anderson or Reid, there is no one. Cohen tries to get wide, but down the right side on Saturday we had no natural width at all. And that’s why Jara didn’t look as good as what he has.

Now maybe when McLaughlin settles he can provide that, but we can’t wait. We need it now. Maybe this is why McLeish is so desperate to get in Burke. He could provide this width, and balance, and which paradoxically for the point of my arguments returns us to a flat 4-4-2. But that’s tactics. It’s such a convoluted and complex game that if it was so easy we’d all be managers. The variables on that midfield are almost endless. Different players bring different skills. We need a merry blend, and right now we aren’t getting that. All the best teams have this balance right. The ball winner, the play maker, width, pace, protection. On Saturday a lot of that was lacking.

And all this without mentioning the tactic of merely hoofing the ball long. Which doesn’t work with our players. They weren’t signed for that system, they can’t play that system. Play to your team’s strengths is something McLeish said he’d do. Saturday showed no evidence of that whatsoever.

Feeling a Little Disillusioned

This was a post made forum user Mr Geo Challenge that I have decided to transfer into a article, I do stress this was written last week, so may have been completely negative had it been written today.

Similarly if you ever feel like venting your spleen,come on over to the forum at http://www.soccer24-7.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=80 and post away, we regularly use forum users are guest columnists on here.

Had to come out of forum retirement because this is something increasingly troublesome to me. I will add this will possibly sound more gloomy than I usually feel...

My mind has been parked (poorly) in a paradoxical cul-de-sac of hope and frustration since the new owners arrival. I'm desperate to see Forest actually have some success after seemingly cursing the club with my presence, yet I always thought there was something special about Forest. We were different in my eyes, and not just in a garibaldi-tinted glasses way. Forest always (usually) did things right, we were the good guys, we had a bias for local players, we didn't just chuck stupid money at players that didn't care about the club, when we owed money we didn't just do a Leicester or Portsmouth - we sold our valuables to pay. We tried to develop out own - even under Doughty's failed regime we knew where we were - we had a plan for long term stability with the undeniable good of the club in mind.

This isn't an attack on our new owners because without them we'd be dead as that fish, however I cannot help feeling disillusioned at what I can't help suspect is happening. In sacking the slow and steady O'Driscoll they have blown away all pretence of carefully building - these guys want the Premiership as soon as possible. One point off the playoffs wasn't enough. They needed immediate success. Why?

The cynical demon perched on my shoulder is whispering that they're impatient at best, and at worst they only want our club for their own means - as a showpiece. Are they only interested in Forest in order to bask in the glory of their plaything? And what if their new toy dosen't provide what they wanted? How patient are they willing to be? What has their track record in patience been so far?

I dismiss the above fears - I've no choice, they're unthinkable.

However there's another, almost as equally ugly demon on the other shoulder querying the direction in which Forest are being steered. O'Driscoll was clearly building for the future, he was level headed, transparent with the fans when they disagreed yet steadfast in his decisions, I was frustrated with some of his tactics but he clearly wanted us to play proper football - he was sculpting a vision. He was slowly and steadily moving us forward and building for the future.

Slowly and steadily isn't good enough for our owners though. They wanted better, quicker, and they sacked him, bringing in a new manager not as known for good football, a manager less inclined for transparency (see the "ill" Hutton whose position he didn't think needed wasting on a loan... ah wait... hello Mr Jara), a manager with absolutely no contractual reason to build for the future, in short a manager that will turn us into just another success-hungry (now!!!) football club.

Maybe it's a natural aversion to change, but my fear is turning up to the City Ground in a years time to watch eleven grossly overpaid mercenaries hoofing the ball and cheating their way to mediocrity. I fear us gambling like all the other financially turgid clubs looking for immediate success - it doesn't work and it promotes the erosion of the club's character.

I don't want to watch another Wigan. I want Forest to be something special - I want us to do things different, properly. I want to see us building for the future, playing attractive football, developing out own product and competitive in the Premiership (and inevitably the Championship).

I support our new owners, and even our new manager, however I also fear we're merely chucking 10p in the slot-machine on the off-chance of making a pound.

One Defeat Does Not Ruin a Season

So last night was fairly lacklustre. And many a fan thought we’d easily win after our previous exploits against Wolves, and being on the 4 match run of form we were on. This forgets of course the famous reasoning many use for the unpredictability of the Championship that it’s a very even division. Anyone can beat anyone.

So last night when you see no end of people pre match presuming and assuming we would beat Ipswich because of League Position illustrated the extremes of emotions of Forest fans. These same fans who assumed the 3 points were in the bag were the same ones who also cried foul and have decided this means the squad is inept, Camp incapable and that we might as well pack up any hopes of promotion.

I even saw one guy suggesting that anyone saying large squads take time to gel is an idiot. Bear in mind we haven’t had a settled defence this year, and the one thing you hear time and time again about defences is that they need understanding, telepathy of where each other is. And most of all to be settled. All great defences are. Ours isn’t settled. So with new personnel in each time takes adjustment, and adjustment brings errors. Think of the last 80’s early 90’s defences, or the defence that took us to third in the premier league. Settled. Organised. Consistent. Laws; Walker; Wilson; Pearce. Lyttle; Cooper; Chettle; Pearce. Settled defences that played week in week out with each other. We currently haven’t had a defence that has that.

The same guy also suggested professional footballers should be able after a while to seamlessly fit into any role and the team carry on regardless. This isn’t how life works in work. Think of your job, you might settled with one expertise, if your thrown out of your comfort zone it makes you question decisions, maybe pause, maybe be too cautious. Maybe make a mistake. This is what happened. This is what surprisingly hasn’t happened much yet.

I would say yes we have spent money, but considering where we expect to be we are ahead of schedule. No teams which are any good gel immediately. Hence why it took Man City several years to win the League. United, Arsenal, Chelsea, there is a core of players who have played together for a while, with new people bought in piecemeal. Not wholesale.

This isn’t harking back to the old 5 year plan under Hart, but remember the al-Hasawi’s said they have a scope of two years to be promoted. They recognise this can’t be done over night, and if you look at the way Cardiff has toiled for years being just off the mark in terms of promotion it does suggest that as well as being good enough what you need mostly is a huge element of luck.

We haven’t spent as much as on our team as Blackburn spent on one player in Jordan Rhodes so to compare the spending is churlish. We were close to relegation last year and lost half that squad and most of what was good. So this year was always for building. Too many fans have had impatience and when things are going well they are quiet. The moment we lose to anyone or underperform they start with the moaning.

Going back to the core reason for this article, losing to Ipswich is not the embarrassing defeat some make it out to be. They have some good players. They also now have a very good manager. They are struggling because they had in my opinion a very poor manager. Jewel is not a good boss and the fact he stuck around so long surprised me, but then Ipswich are a very patient club.

I also laugh at how after one defeat people immediately try and point out how they were right and how certain players have to be playing. It’s a constant cycle with our midfielders, when McGugan isn’t playing some say he should be, when he’s in the team and underperforming immediately some want him dropped and someone else restoring. No one is ever happy.

Had the last two results been reversed maybe this post would never happened. The good feeling following beating Wolves has bought an extreme of emotion. One you always seem to get with Forest. The masses are never content; they are either euphoric or depressed. It’s completely bi-polar in its nature. We are on the edge of the playoffs. We are in within a good run of results from the higher echelons of the table. As I said quite recently, plenty of reasons to be cheerful.

So let’s not get depressed that we lost to a struggling team. Let’s not over analyse it. Players played badly, It happens. The overall curve of our season’s fortunes is an upward curve. We aren’t going backwards as a club. But a section of support behaves like each defeat we might have is a return to last season’s struggles.

Seven Points in Seven Days

7 Points From 7 days




A glorious week in the still early season for Nottingham Forest has seen them fly from obscurity to the edge of the playoffs.

After what some regarded as a mini crisis in September, where we struggled in several games including the Derby game, the results against Cardiff, Blackpool and Barnsley in the same week have catapulted the reds back up after the slide in form had been halted against Peterborough.

It’s one of those weeks that make you start to believe. The team is moulding slowly but surely into a unit, players settling in others finding form. Chris Cohen, although one of our longest serving players, is like a new signing since his return from injury. Billy Sharp has settled in, and has started scoring. The only problems remain the defence which is thin on strength in depth, and the discipline which has plagued us all season carries on.

The discipline is a strange one. Simon Cox had got booked in all his early appearance. Adlene Guedioura has had two red cards in consecutive appearances. There are needless yellows coming all round the team and further suspensions will kick in as these slowly accumulate for the likes of Halford, Harding etc. This has bought to us the need for Elliot Ward to be signed. Not just as cover for the injured Ayala, but also in case of the likely further suspensions at the back for others.

The win against Cardiff was particularly pleasing as I am not particularly fond of the south Wales side. I find them particularly abhorrent. So to see them play badly, and in their favoured blue kits of old was pleasing. We were good, make no mistake, but they were also awful. Reid’s free kick was expertly placed, the header moments later by Ayala to put us two up was also great, Halfords cross had been wonderful. And although we wavered at times, mainly after Sharp added a third, allowing Helguson to score and Guedioura getting himself sent off, we remained firm and took what could be a huge win against one of the top teams in the division.

It’s a benchmark to do so well against the likes of Cardiff. To say yeah we can beat the best teams at this level. But then also to getaway and scratch a draw at tricky Blackpool is also a positive. Yes we had the lead, and yes Blackpool were depleted, but we came back late on which shows a resilience that can be only a good thing. Sharps goal was instinct, the ball fired in which he merely manipulated and redirected into the net. Blackpool fired a quick salvo double to put themselves in the driving seat, only for Dexter Blackstock to keep himself in that frame. With Cox and Sharp on form, Blackstock could easily be forgotten, but if he carries on to chip in with goals when he can it’s nothing but a bonus.

And so Barnsley away. A place that hasn’t been the happiest of hunting grounds for Forest. In fact it’s been a bleak place for us. The capitulation under Megson always stands out to me as it illustrated almost a nadir, a low point of my following the club. A wet cold miserable day with a miserable defeat in what became an embarrassing Brazilian away kit.

Saturday though, a few of those demons were laid to rest with a 4-1 win. Make no mistake Barnsley are average at best. They exist to survive at this level. I can’t think of any of their players who’d get on our bench never mind in first XI. But we allowed them the lead. Harewood, who always scored had missed a couple and so was getting some semi playful abuse. It was always going to come back and haunt us. He was played in too easily, raced clear, rounded Camp and scored. Notably he didn’t celebrate at all, making a motion to the Forest fans that he was being understated. Fair play to the lad. He will always be Forest.

Then we woke up. The goals came fast and furious. Halfords poked shot deflected in. From the away end t was hard to tell what happened. The bright sun shining behind the goal blinded us and also put that end in very dark shadow. It looked like at first it had just evaded the keeper. No the deflection was obvious on TV. Then Cox netted from Sharps parried shot. And then very soon after Cohen had fired into the top left from 20 yards to put the game beyond much doubt. The quickness of the goal seemed to have sucked the enthusiasm out of the Tykes. The fans little cheering from a small turnout dwindled. They had a good chance to make it 3-2 in the second when Camp saved well, before what might be Jenas last action in a Forest shirt for now. He was played in, went clear to one on one with the keeper and deftly flicked it over the keeper to make it 4-1, finish the game off, and send half the Barnsley fans home.

So all in all very much a bonus. We briefly went to 6th in the table, before Hull won later in the evening. We are the edge of the top positions; we know we can beat those top teams. And we have come from behind a few times. There is a problem that we are conceding and needing to have to either come from behind or defend a lead. Neither of which make for happy viewing.

But consider a number of our promotion seasons or close seasons started with a blip. Under Frank Clark we didn’t exactly race clear to start with. We snuck under the radar under Calderwood. Even under Davies we never started up the top, starting slowly before steamrolling through the end of the calendar year, having a blip in January and limping through the Spring.

So it will be fascinating to see how this season pans out. We seem to have settled now on the 4-1-3-2 formation, which Gillette has been the fulcrum of. The defence would be settled if not for injuries. The midfield allows for rotation to stop players becoming jaded. The front two of Cox and Sharp look like being the chosen due. So all the moans when we limped through September of we didn’t even know our best formation never mind team seem to have been silenced. We at least know how we want to play, and we have a good idea of who, if only they’d all stop getting suspended, we might have a settled team. There’s still Lansbury to get fully fit yet, and he should genuinely show some class. All bodes well.

Progress Report - Oct 2012

What a difference a result makes. Had we not beaten Peterborough then maybe the tone and position of this piece may have had a different focus. Returning to winning ways has been key though.


The run of results from the Leeds away game, including the painful Derby defeat saw the club start to slip. With a fairly expensive array of players and with fan expectation renewed it could have been alarming. I had heard the first mutters of discontent at O’Driscoll. Why he was choosing certain players or not changing it up. These usually prove to be infectious amongst fans and spread.

Considering last season we were close to relegation, and considering two of the best players from that campaign are now both at Reading (Gunter and McCleary to the slow today) and that we had a large number of loanee’s and that Lynch too had gone, it’s progress that we even have a team at all, never mind one the fans feel can challenge.

Regard for one that we remain under most of the media’s radar still. Usually in our case there’s a bit more interest and though we have already have Clem from the Football league Show visit it us, they didn’t seem to focus on the renewed belief at the City ground.

So yes, an away victory at Peterborough arrested a run of games with no wins that was in danger of looking like a decline rather than a blip. That will be sorely tested on Saturday by the visiting Blue... oh wait Red Dragons of Cardiff City, who arguably have one of the best squads in the division. If we perform against them, and get a result this will be progress.

Our main problem remains that we still don’t know the best XI for the squad. Hell we aren’t even sure of the best formation. Do we go 4-2-3-1 or stick to 4-4-2. Both have benefits. I’d argue if w stick to 4-4-2 this needs to see McGugan jettisoned to the bench, and play Reid, Gillette, Guedioura and Lansbury, but that’s missing out Jenas who we have on loan and the resurgent Cohen. This is forgetting Majewski, who remains the second coming in some fans eyes for reasons that still remain unclear.

With a 5 man midfield, Cohen and Gillette can take the deeper roles, or Guedioura, with McGugan behind a sole striker, Lansbury and Reid getting wide. It still means players missing out, and I for one am glad this head ache isn’t mine.

What is obvious is Gillette remains key to this team. The most under stated of all our signings has probably had the most impact. He has quietly gone about his task but has garnered positive reviews in most games. Playing as the water carrier, the role and name made famous by Didier Deschamps in France 98, it’s a role many don’t understand as it does all the parts that don’t get attention. The quieter sides of the game. Moussi can’t do this role at all. He plays it more as an enforcer, strong tackling, like a De Jong, or in a Forest context Paul Evans. Like Evans he has terrible distribution once he wins the ball so is forced to tackle back again. Gillette plays it more like McKenna, drop deep, get ball, play the ball, look for the outlet again, and keep play moving, stop any stagnation we often saw last season, when Chambers or Morgan would get the ball, look up, see no options, pause, still see no option and launch the ball forward. Often to the opposition. Now the defenders always have an outlet and we retain possession. It’s a simple difference, but a huge difference.

It does mean that the 4-4-2 we play, is often more a 4-1-3-2. Meaning the 3 play narrower than a usual 4-4-2, so we don’t have the need so much for traditional wide men. This though has seen us get stuck in Cul-de-Sacs up the middle of the pitch, making it easier to defend a single pronged arrow, rather than a multiple pronged attack. The full backs do try and support but often end up exposed. This forced Gillette back more defensively at times, playing as a proxy centre half. And very narrow, meaning we can ironically get beat round the sides, as illustrated by derby’s goal so very succinctly, but also King’s goal for Birmingham.

So in essence, yes the football has been better but there are a few tactical creases that need smoothing out to enable us to get to the top of the table. This is a case of using what we have to our benefits. O’Driscoll might have seen Jenas someone who can do this. We have barely seen anything from JJ yet, but he is starting to get some fitness and form together. Cohen’s return has been a breath of fresh air in the midfield as he too is the perfect foil for Gillette as he can get box to box more than someone like McGugan or Majewski who doesn’t ever track back. Guedioura is a similar role but he has struggled for form. Whereas though Cohen is a ball player, Guedioura has a bull dog like approach, looking to get forward and power a shot in, or splay a wide pass. Cohen is a shorter game player.

Its funny, I have spent this entire article focussing on the midfield. But that’s where this team is going to make or break. Cox has shown he is class, and Sharp has good legacy in this division. Blackstock we know and love for what he can do. The defence, well the only real debate is Ayala in the middle or Hutchinson or Halford rotating at right back or centre half. Ayala had been a little wobbly but he looks like he’s coming good again. Hutchinson has long term injury issues so he is never going to be a long term fixture in the side. What role we will eventually see from Lascelles isn’t clear yet, but at this stage he needs football, so a loan again might be a good option.

All in all I am heartened by our start. There’s enough to be positive on even if there are a few problems with the team. But that’s the same with any team, there are always areas to improve and yes there are a couple of problems with defence and we still don’t know our best midfield configuration. This will become clear now that all the midfielders are fit. The likes of Coppinger look like square pegs here, and there are at least 3-4 surplus players in addition to the players out on loan. Moussi, Greening look to have served their time, Coppinger hasn’t found a role. Majewski to me still stands as a surplus luxury player.

All this said, I do think we will be up in the mix this season. I do think the two years the al-Hasawi’s earmarked might be an accurate reflection. Some said it was to deflect pressure away from the manager, but I think it’s an honest accurate marker of changing this squad into one that can compete and get promoted.

The Root Cause

Thinking a lot today on why and what caused a perfectly capable promotion contender for two years to simply fall away and look a shell of that team has occupied my mind today.

And it’s far too easy to merely point fingers at the usual suspects, the lack of investment, and the appointment of McClaren etc as being why this situation has arisen. There are deeper cause and consequence too for this.



Yes extra investment would have been nice and would no doubt have seen success. Hindsight as well all know is a wonderful thing, and there is no guarantee that had we bought in extra players that they would have been successful and we would have gone up. That’s a debate we have done before to death. So let’s leave that one there.

One aspect for me was the slight breaking up of the team of the last 2-3 years. Ok we have most of the players, but the likes of McKenna and Earnshaw may be more missed than what we realise. Most of the players who left in the summer were fringe players, and coupled with Billy’s departure it did feel like somewhat change in the squad dynamic.

When players came in since the glut of signings 2 years ago, it was one player drip fed in occasionally. Such as Tudgay, the core remained the same. This season feels like too much tried to change. The whole strike force changing, Cohen got shunted round the park before his injury (and his loss is proving to be huge to the team) McKenna as that focal lynch pin in the midfield is missing as Moussi simply isn't a clever enough footballer to play that role. McGugan is in this game for McGugan alone.



I always said the team of the last 2 years were over achieving. The likes of Morgan and Chamber are not as good as what they looked at times. Same with the flanks of the team. But it does seem that somehow that Billy Davies had them on a crest of a wave, and perhaps lucky to get a group of players who for a period were united and played above themselves. I do think though that had we tried to carry on that team though that that time had simply gone. It needed a change. But a gradual one.

Only 5players came in, 5 mostly well paid players, and couple with injuries had to rely on a team that were strangers to one another. Some of the players in are also confidence players (i.e. Matt Derbyshire) and Greening has been asked to do a McKenna role I am not sure he is comfortable with.

Greening is somewhat surprising as he has a fairly good pedigree and career yet here hasn’t really shown what has made this reputation. Why this is I cannot explain. Those who simply state he is crap aren’t looking at a bigger picture. Players do not simply turn crap like that. Something must be wrong.

Moussi it seems is floundering and only Davies knew how to wield this most frustrating of weapons in our arsenal. Sublime and ridiculous within seconds, those good moments are far less frequent, and when Moussi messes up he messes up big time.

Chambers seems to have reverted to his old form. Lynch though has simply looked better than him, but Gunter, now Anderson and McCleary could be back should replace him at right back, captain or no captain.

And now Cotterill has said he will wheel and deal in January. This is a time perhaps to move out some of the players simply not clicking. I think Billy's players don't work well without him. We need Cohen to be temporarily replaced at least; the loan market would be good to look at. Surely Arsenal have a kid who could benefit from 6 months with us.

It is ironic here, I wrote at the start that changes caused this, and now I call for changes. However, this period of time seems to illustrate that change is needed. In the summer the first team players were all Billy's players, and perhaps there is a schism in the camp, and that many of those players, whose contracts are coming up no longer identify with the same team that we had before. We all know from any job there is a period of time when things click and everything feels great, and then something or some changes and it no longer feels the same. That is all I think that is happening. And it needs addressing. Maybe some people are starting to stagnate. Maybe we need a fresh flow into the squad. Hungry players. Eager to prove.

Who knows to be honest? If anyone did we wouldn’t be in this situation.

Progress Report

In the first real look at this season progress there is a huge amount to get in, and no real conclusions. Just thought I'd get that out there first. Basically I say that because we are very much a work in progress and it's still hard to tell if we will explode up the league, or merely meander around the lower half.

I think we all agree that those first initial fears of relegation we had with McClaren are somewhat starting to evaporate. Though a number of bad results would result in us slumping back, and although we are on better form, it's easy to suggest we are two or defeats in a row away from crisis again.

However, the swagger and belief seems to back in a number of the more flair players, and with Anderson and Blackstock approaching fitness (although in Dexter's case that will still be a long way off)

Any team might have somewhat struggled without the likes of Cohen, Blackstock and Anderson, and with capable reserve Garath McCleary also missing, there has been real no natural width to the team. It's easy to see why we chased Verhoek, even if ultimately that failed.

The damage McClaren could have done seems to have been nipped in the bud. I admit I for one would have given him more time, but the resurgence shown in the period since his departure really underlines how wrong I was. He really must have lost the dressing room.

If we went behind under McClaren, we really looked lost, the players seemed de-motivated, and under Cotterill that does seem different. Even though Portsmouth tonked us, we played well and could and should have gotten more out of a game that the score line defied, but then when you star chasing a game at 2 down you leave yourself open to that.


Joel Lynch for me this season has been a real revelation. I always thought he looked talented, and he had a lot of hype about him before he came here (I certainly signed him a few times on Football Manager) Especially in his preferred centre back role, it seems like Chambers that he looked capable in his full back slot, but at centre back he looks accomplished. I thought we might see Lascelles come through more, but with Lynch now blossoming there that is more unlikely.

Up front we do seem to have a number of options that we may have lacked. Miller is the big direct threat, who is powerful and quick; Findley is the nippy striker to use late on, Tudgay the aerial threat, and Derbyshire the man for finishing, although they aren't quite firing as a unit yet. Blackstock will be the one to come in and change this. Miller and Blackstock might see a more aerial threat, both handy in the air, and both good finishers. Derbyshire has disappointed for me a little. I always liked him at Blackburn.

Midfield wise, it’s hard to tell, under McClaren it looked clueless, and we still once again have issues surrounding Moussi's consistency. McGugan is again looking his confident self and Majewski has at times impressed me under Cotterill. Under McClaren this was all somewhat staid and dull in midfield. Boateng had a role as an enforcer, yet he doesn't have mobility to get around. Greening I so want to do well, and I think the crowd need to give him a little slack. I think he is seen as the face of McClaren signings (despite rumours being he was signed before Stcheve came in.)

And then there is the board. Where are we going? Well it is unclear still just what Doughty will put in, but it seems he has decided that enough is enough, and that he has staked all he can and should in this venture. Every gambler should have a limit, Doughty may have reached his. Whether this was something he was mulling over anyway, and decided by the protests or whether it really was unrelated, maybe he'll, and he did it because of the opposition to him solely. I know he said it’s down to McClarens appointment, but I think it is in part to alleviating pressure.


McClaren was very much a mistake and that I know now. We went for a flashy name when we should have for a man who knows this division.Many will say we shouldn't have got rid of Billy, but the problem there was that Billy had burned all of his bridges. As well as that, it seems he had tried his hardest to forge away out the club, as he had every where else he went. He still hasn't got a job now despite his great record. McClaren really had no idea what to do when it went wrong. It seems like his Wolfsburg period. Taking over a club that had done well, and being unable to replicate that. Wrong club,at wrong time.

Frank Clarks reign is still very much a long work in progress. The fans are onside. Let’s see how it goes

All in all I have hopes we can reached the playoff promised land again. Here's to seeing if we can.

Crisis? Don't Make Me Laugh

First up. I admit that I was unable to see the game in the flesh on Sunday, I was best man at a wedding,and some things in life far outweigh the importance of attending this clubs matches. But to see the reactions of a great deal of fans post match is downright laughable.



We have played a hand full of matches, this isn't half the season gone and the Championship is notoriously a very competitive division. Win a few games, or go on any decent run of form and you storm up the table to be in contention. Hell had we won that game we'd have been on the edge of the playoffs and no doubt most fans would have discussed how we are already up the table so early in the season and how this is a nice change and indicative of our class.



Make no mistake absolutely the same things were being said last season. The old bugbears of a lack of investment, and players not performing and players out of position were all discussed late last August. I know because I just reread back on the forum and old blog posts just to be sure. We are and always have been slow starters. In previous promotion seasons we have never been flying at the start. Under Clark in that famous season it took quite a while to find out feet. In the promotion season out of league one we limped over the line at the last minute.



What I am trying to say is that barring a few examples we never set the world alight early on. More a steamroller that takes awhile to bring up ahead of steam. To start panicking and reacting like we have before the end of AUGUST FOR CRYING OUT LOUD IS LAUGHABLE.



Capitals were intended as I want to make my point loud and clear.



It's an old cliche in football, but nothing is won in August, September, October, hell nothing really matters till remotely Christmas (unless things are really going tits up)



What made me chuckle the most is seeing some fans complain about our start, saying we're struggling, then the same fans turn round and say "haha dunno why Derby are so excited don't they know the season lasts 46 games" You cannot have your cake an eat it.You can't say we are in crisis for not doing well for a few games whilst suggesting a rival doing well is being over optimistic.



The same knee jerk reactions as always spring out. Players targeted for being past it,not good enough etc. The chairman for not spending every penny he owns on new players, and the classic of Mark Arthur (in fact no scrub that, he is useless and I agree with the chuntering there) We have to be honest though, this is a hard division this year and therefore we will lose games. West Ham were premier league last year and have managed to retain a core of very good players, and in Kevin Nolan have a player I think that should have had England caps in his career.



We do fool ourselves somewhat that some of the cult favourite payers are better than what they are. Lets be honest, theres a reason Wes Morgan rarely gets linked with top flight clubs. That's because he isn't as good as we like to think he is. Our players are in a Championship club for a reason, they are Championship level players. West Ham being recently relegated have a number of players too good for this division.



If we win the next 2-3 games,all this talk will dissipate. If we make some signings (and with 1 day to go there isn't a lot of talk) then people will be appeased. We will look back hopefully at this result as an anomaly. I remember writing a similar piece last season when en were slipping about retaining the confidence to make the playoffs and we did. That's just a difference, some are so ready to write us off, and not enough seem to rally behind the team. It must be the same at every club, but I can't help thinking we always seem more negative than many other clubs fans. There are some people sitting around me who seem to delight in bad performances. Like its some kind of stress reliever being able to hurl abuse at some random bloke on a field.



I see a lot of similarity with us and Arsenal right now. A team and manager,and most importantly board under fire as a collective unit,and being touted as in crisis. I have full confidence that both sides will turn it round though. We have played 2-3 teams who will be in the top6 come May. Last season we thought it had been an easy start and that we'd failed.In the first month then we all complained about drawing with Norwich. The common consensus a year ago was that everything wasn't good enough, all was crap. Everyone pointed fingers. Sounds familiar. And we made the playoffs last season,and with the customary late winter blip.



Panic? Not me.

Early Season Thoughts

First time blogger, for Forest 24-7 at least Andy Lumley gives us his thoughts on the season thus far.



Early season thoughts



So we are a few games into the new season and McLaren's tenure, what do we think? To start with let's remember we are 4 games in, not 40. I've been to both the home games and I have seen encouraging signs alongside some worrying signs as well. Against Barnsley we had some nice patches of play without looking like scoring. For 45 mins yesterday we never looked like scoring either (apart from Derbyshire's header, but as I say, never looked like scoring). Apparently McLaren saw something in the Derbyshire/McGoldrick partnership at Donny so wanted them to start together again. Now a partnership to me means working together. Derbyshire worked bloody hard in the first half, but at no point did they actually link like a partnership. So they were duly swapped at half time for Miller/Findley to have a crack. By the way - would Billy have been this bold with subs? As a striker myself (of no great quality) I always watch for movement and link-up play with interest. The difference in the second half was immediate and obvious. Every time either of the strikers went up for a header the other one was looking, watching and anticipating the flick. When it went in to feet, the other one was there supporting. This is what a partnership should be. Findley's volley was unlucky (from the Miller flick) and Miller showed his strength to get his shot away from a throw-in. Whether or not they will start together on Tuesday in the cup will be seen but I sincerely hope they start together against West Ham next Sunday. I think Derbyshire looks good and with Dexter on the mend I think we look ok up front now.



My biggest issue with McLaren has been the difference in our back 5. Last season we didn't score that many goals but I always felt confident in the defence. This year they look shaky and nervous. Camp has lost his boulshy swagger and maybe McLaren is asking Chambo to play too much instead of just be that solid defender, let's face it he's no Rio on the ball but I can never question his desire to block a shot and defend. Wes is still Wes. Camp doesn't seem at all comfortable with playing it out quickly and his accuracy hitting Gunts when its on has been poor. In fact i'm not sure many of the team seem comfortable with what is supposed to be happening. Formation wise 4-4-2 isn't really working. Greening and Boateng play SO deep that the gap up to the strikers is huge. So when we do hit a strikers feet there is nobody there to give the ball to and we lose it. Cue the change yesterday to the diamond. Not only did this bring Radi on (Who by the way Steve is one of the most creative players in the league) and even though he was out of position on the right of the diamond his vision and attacking play helped change the game. Couple this with McGugan (Who by the way Steve is one of the most creative players in the league) slipping in behind the front two and getting on the ball. We were helped by the dodgy ref, very dodgy sending off and ridiculous penalty but you can't think we would have got back in that game without changing the system and even more so the players on the pitch.



As usual the majority of fans worry me at Forest. If you look at the whole game I think Leicester had maybe 3 or 4 shots on goal. Both their goals came from our mistakes and were well taken but did they look like scoring any others? The boos were understandable to a point but its still so early in the season to worry. I just hope that we look less like its pre-season tinkering with personnel and systems and settle.



My XI for West Ham would be:



Camp



Gunts Chambo Wes Cohen



Boateng



Radi Greening



Lewis



Findley Miller



We'll wait and see.

All Quiet on the Forest Front

Some say no news is good news. In this case it's a statement of a fact. There is literally next to nothing emanating from City Ground right now,and as a Forest blogger this is not the ideal situation. When there is transfer gossip galore you can barely keep me off here writing about my various thoughts of deals or reporting who we are after.

The Emergency Loan window has come and gone, I don't think anyone expected us to business yesterday, and lo and behold!!! We didn't. We did get Boyd in I guess, a move I am still largely indifferent on. He hasn't done anything to annoy me, hell, he scored a goal, but on the other hand it was hardly exciting news that we are paying £30k a week to a man who looks like he spends most of it on keeping Fray Bentos in business.

What I think we could have done with is a new right winger, or any winger, or some creativity. Anderson is simply not good enough. He can't take anyone on, can't cross,all he can do is run a lot. McCleary as much as I love him is not the player we need to take us up. Majewski, well all I can think is that we got some secret poorer twin brother sent over from this summer onwards as he's been poor. McGugan since Christmas has looked back to his usual self, ie. ball greedy, shooting horrendously and generally giving an aura of someone phoning in his performances till he gets his"BIG" move.

So yeah, in those areas I would liked to have seen some movement. The strikers have all seemingly decided that scoring goals isn't for them so won;t do that any more save for Adebola. Lets remember McGoldrick promised us 15 goals this year and I know people will point out how can do that when he's not playing, well he has to be good enough to get into the team first, which he isn't by the way. I've been frustrated at not being able to see Findley yet though, anyone who's an international for a tea in the world cup must be better than what we have even despite many Americans protestations that he's actually useless.

All in all this has been a cathartic experience for me. Venting my anger at the team,rather than booing relentlessly at the ground. You may notice the defence and Camp got off scot free. Yeah because they have been a rock all year

Where Have Things Been Going Wrong?

Following our dip in form all sorts of fingers have been pointed in all sorts of directions about why this is so. People point to a lack of new faces in an injury stricken squad, fatigued as it is without having to cover for injuries too.

Some blame a longer view of the same thing, that we should have signed other better players back in the summer and have a larger squad, but a better squad that can ride out crises like we have been having.

Lets just point out the players who have recently been out through injury. Moussi, Tyson, Blackstock, Lynch, Findley and apparently Wilson (who if you believe some sources is being frozen out for having the temerity to sign a deal with a new club.

OK Moussi prior to injury was in majestic form, that's granted. Blackstock is missed, but we bought in a like for like change with Tudgay to cover for Dexters time out. Findley is an unknown quantity so we can't really comment there and Lynch is at best a reserve. Tyson is very hit and miss, but like Moussi had played well in certain games, but as his good old moniker of Mr Glass shows he is always prone to an injury.

What I will try and do here is illustrate with the help of formation builders where some of the issues have been. Also is a much bigger issue of motivation.

I mention motivation because look at the teams we have been struggling against. Preston, Sheffield United, Scunthorpe. All teams fighting for their lives. Hull was a different example and I will point this out this shortly as to why I believe that was always a disaster that was going to happen. What is also apparent is that the essentially the team has been the same.

So do we lack motivation against smaller teams, a sense of complacency, or are these teams just more of a challenge than we give credit for? Well remember one basic mantra always repeated about this division, anyone can beat anyone on any given day. This has been shown time and again this season. However, Preston, Scunthorpe and Sheffield United have done this less over the season, a lot less hence why they are where they are. Admittedly the week before we drew with Preston, QPR drew too. If this whole thing of anyone beating anyone were to be true, then the whole division would surely be tighter. However I take it that yes on a one off most team are equal.

The problem becomes when teams set themselves up a certain way to play at City Ground. Lower teams pack the middle of the pitch,leave a man up front and basically make it very hard for us to break them down. And we often have no plan B to do this. Hoping instead that a gradual war of attrition will see us break through this defence. Until recently it worked. Teams once we score have to come out their shell and attack us, and then we can find those gaps when they release those midfield shackles of footballing oppression.

Preston really shouldn't have been mentioned. That really should have been a win. Lets not forget we didn't lose either, though this fully illuminated the problems that manifested themselves against Hull. That 96th minute goal though I think may have affected the confidence of some of the players however, and coupled with the Hull game where we had an unfamiliar setup for the team and a lucky deflection giving the Tigers a win has seen this team panic somewhat. Me and my fellow writer of this site were both unable to attend Tuesday night at Bramall Lane, but the familiar signs of old appear to have been there. Lack of concentration.

In 4 of our better recent wins, and I take the Derby home game, the Coventry away win, the Cardiff home win and the Watford home win for this, the teams only showed subtle differences. forced in part by Moussi's injury, and an inspired change in the team to bring in Tyson v Derby to harass Leacock. The core of the team remained the same.

By the same token I have taken the teams against Scunthorpe, Preston, Hull and Sheffield United to look at. The team v Scunthorpe is largely the same, as it is almost v Preston, Hull enforced changes bought about that defeat, and Sheffield United was as much player confidence.

In this the formation against Derby, you can see essentially its a 4-4-2, but slightly skewed for positional sense. Ramsey was picked on the right but he switched with Majewski somewhat on this role. Unusually for Billy both wingers didn't swap as much as usual. Tyson hallmarked for Leacock at right back, to rip him to shreds. Moussi with the role to sit deep and break up play and create new attacks. A Lassana Diarra type role, or Alex Song.

Its not a 4-1-3-2 in the sense that That implies a more central attacking midfield trio. Tyson was unashamedly a winger here. Make no mistake this was was a team tailored for the in. Cohen had been dropped, and McGugan and Anderson also on the bench. Those 3 on the bench was pretty much a one off.

If compared with the team v Coventry,Cardiff and Watford,the same basic structure exists, but the personal used were wielded in slightly different ways. There is moe fluidity. Instead of Tyson rigidly on the wing, McGugan is encouraged to come inside more often, and Cohen push out onto the left. Similarly wingers may switch. What is rigid is the role of Moussi, or McKenna in later games to sit back and cover. Provide an outlet to switch play if stuck in a channel and act as abridge between defence and attack.

The defence and attack have remained rigidly the same. In fact for most of this period they have stayed that way. The defence seeing on occasional enforced change at left back, and the attack mainly staying Earnshaw and Tudgay, only being changed for knocks,with Adebola being unleashed as a late weapon to try something different.

Indeed this exact same shape was used against Preston with nigh on the same personnel. Preston however are fighting, and perhaps there was an under estimation. There feels at times like the team are sure they will break the others down, it's just a matter of when, and in Preston that was borne out. We did eventually grind them down, and then fell asleep at the back thinking the job was done and conceded a sucker punch of a goal (that was no more than Preston deserved) Scunthorpe again was a similar team with Tyson playing the Anderson role.Tyson however as most of us know has no right foot worthy of speaking about.When he's on the right wing, he has to switch inside every time. Defenders and mangers will know this if we can notice it for sure. What was mentioned that day was the fact the pitch was seen as a great leveller. We couldn't play our game on a surface less like a carpet, but the battlefields of World War I.

Against Hull it all went wrong.

The same basic idea. But as I've tried to show Cohen is not a player who sits deep. I could have arrows pointing everywhere, but I will leave it basic. His was the McKenna/Moussi role of sitting deep and breaking up play. That is not Cohen's game,he is a box to box midfielder and that is what he will try and do. No matter how you try to shackle him to that role, his natural instinct is to get forward to assist the strikers. To change that role is to take his best attributes away. His game is not defensive. OK, he may well be asked to play that role, but he can't do it as effectively. Then we have 3 other players all busting a gut to be the scorer. So now instead of Cohen who plays box to box next to a deep lying midfielder, we have 3 others trying their damnedest to get forward,with little or no inclination to get back. It's a double loss to the midfield. Cohen who has boundless energy is no longer rushing back and forth, his role as support at both ends is gone as Majewski doesn't pull back as much, and so we have situation like their goal where the defence is suddenly opened up, with no support in front to stop that (albeit deflected) pass getting through.

All our best periods of the season have this set up. A defensive midfielder designed to break up play and give the ball invariably to the other central midfielder whose role is to break forward, and create attacks. We have broke this mould on rare occasion. The win against Swansea as good a model of what we changed.

Two midfielders sitting deep to nullify threats. Cohen played a wider left role, and McGugan encouraged to join Blackstock as much as he can, but to play a midfield role. More of a 4-2-3-1 formation. And by golly it worked.

Finally, when we went on that wonderful run through December,January and into February, we had been more rested. Decembers fixtures had been decimated by the weather. So the players were fit,and they were eager to get on that pitch. Now we are in a rut and the next game is always right around the bend. It sticks in the memory. We worried a long break may hurt our form and lethargy may creep in. Well now we could do with a break. When on good form, games can't come soon enough, when in a dip, the next challenge is right there.
Luckily there's an international break creeping up.

By then Moussi may be back, perhaps Findley. And we no longer play teams at the bottom, who seem to be our achilles heel.

The Divisive Issue...Can We Achieve Promotion?

Following the win against Watford and rise into the automatic promotion places, which pleasingly we retained after Cardiff defeated Swansea it seems to me there is one debate going on amongst Forest fans right now. The issue of whether we can get actually get promoted.

Now the simple fact is that we retain second spot in the league with games in hand on those around us. This of course could see go clear of said teams. So in essence it is ours to lose. Again. Because lets not forget we got ourselves into this position last year.

However, we hit that spot earlier, and it is easy to say with a worse squad. For one we have a left back this time. By the time we hit second last time we were about to lose Shorey. Now we are second with a left back we have till nearly the end of the season. By which time we will have two relatively easy games left against Scunthorpe and Palace. I say relatively, because as s the most often used cliche around the Championship is of course anyone can beat anyone,which is true, but if it truly were the case we would all have the same amount of points. By and large we beat worse teams, it's why we are second in the first place.

I say mostly it is a divisive issue because of the conversations I have have had with Forest fans versus conversations I have had with non Forest fans. The non Forest fans all seem to think we are going to do it. On various neutral podcasts or news reports they seem to suggest they think we look good to be joining QPR (who everyone agrees are shoe ins for promotion) in the Premier League.

Forest fans are torn. Many I have spoken to or have seen on various forums (I do occasionally check to see what 24-7 rivals are saying) simply do not agree with the sentiment that we are promotion bound come what may. The simple reason for this is that we have a more clued knowledge of what we have to do, we are more aware of how we can play, who we have to play and our relative injury worries. Therefore many Forest fans think we will slip up. We have three very hard away games to come (QPR, Leeds ,and Norwich) not to mention what is looking a very crucial tie v Cardiff at the City Ground. For these reasons alone quite a few are sceptical.

Then there are the injury worries. Moussi is out for a while, we lost Blackstock ages ago. Findley is also out for awhile. However, let us remind ourselves we have got to where we are without even needing Findley, and Blackstock has been out for a while now, and even despite his injury we have risen into a healthy spot. Moussi is a blow, no doubt. However, last season we got up quite high with a large number of people still undecided on the Frenchman. This season he seems to have won over those sceptics, but again, we did well last year when he was a lot more inconsistent, and we relied more on McKenna sitting in the midfield.

Ahhh there is an issue, McKenna. He also divides fans, with quite a few berating him at all opportunities. Yet he can make this difference. I could try and argue he is fresh this season, whereas at the end of last year it was obvious he was somewhat overused an jaded. And injured. The Lazarus-esque come back for the payoffs was all in vain. But it is now February, and although he was injured, he won't be tired, and is perfect to come in for the final pushes to come.

Last year there is no doubt we fell away and limped over the line. We had no left back, many of the team seemed tired, and were constantly being rested in the last few games. This saw us lack any consistency and therefore we struggled against teams we really should have beaten. This year, well there is still no strength in depth, the same players are going to be used a lot. Beyond the current midfield, with the rotation of McGugan and Majewski we don't have a Thornhill figure anymore if we really are desperate. The utility man Perch has gone (which many will argue helps our chances) so in essence we are no stronger. If Morgan or Gunter were to be injured we have no player of a similar quality to fill in. We start getting nearly round pegs in round holes. We do have Tudgay we didn't have, but he is more filling in Blackstocks role now.



A number of people on other forums I have seen have called into question the boards ambition, not bringing in this window those players we need to get us home. Billy himself was quoted as saying we can make play-offs but no more. Billy of course has to say this. To say yes we will go up and then not looks like failure on his behalf, and he is far to intelligent to put that much pressure on himself. Much safer to play down expectations. But then there is the issue of if we made those "stellar" signings. We'd be coasting? Well not necessarily. A lot of what we are built on is a very strong team ethic, with players who not only play well together, but get on well together. To bring in some new names could easily rock that boat. That being said I wouldn't say no to the likes of Pratley coming in.

The board, and the infamous Transfer Panel, which may or may not exist any more depending on who you believe seemed to not offer the requisite fees for players. Hell, they might not even have agreed to said signings. There are no guarantee's that these players wanted to come us. Halfway through the season does Pratley jump ship and risk seeing Swansea go up at our expense, and curse his decision, the same with Whittingham, or any other number of players we may have been after. The likes of these guys would like if they move sideways to a club in the same division wait until the summer and decide then.

Are we good enough? We are second by right. We aren't here because someone else has games in hand. We have earned our position, it is ours to lose. There are big games ahead. Cardiff you could argue have an easier run in (we thought we did last season than WBA) Swansea too, but Norwich have a few tricky games.



To doubt our chances is to doubt us in any one on one game against other teams. We have already shown we are capable of big away wins (Cardiff) and indeed, we no longer have appalling away form, we have the best home form in the division. And it doesn't all end if we lose to QPR on Sunday. We are still in a good position, with a strong team, hurt by last seasons end, who want to make amends. Make no mistake though, Cardiff feel the same way too.

A guy I spoke to in the pub simply said there is no way we will go up, it's Forest, we always screw it up. It is something that sits in the back of the mind. But we did look like we messed League One up only to leapfrog Doncaster, we have twice got ourselves back out of this division before in the last 15 years., We can do it again.