Are Burnley Really Our Bogey Club?

As we approach the big match against Burnley this week it reminds that Burnley are somewhat regarded as one of our bogey clubs. Half the time its unexplainable and we simply just say, yeah they are our bogey clubs. But is there any truth?

We all have that association between knowing that sometimes we will just beat a team, like we are often other team’s bogey teams. I remember when I was a kid Wimbledon seemed to have a hold over us, but then everyone struggled at Plough Lane. In a more modern context Walsall are oft cited as being a bogey club, as well until more recently Doncaster Rovers.

You could argue of course, especially in recent lights Blackpool are of course one, they just beat us, there was that playoff semi final, it just feels like they always win, but Burnley for me is just one of those teams who seem to win all the time. It’s a hard place to go, and they quite often give us a good game or a beating down at the City Ground (I remember them singing is there a fire drill 2 years ago or so as we limped to an insipid defeat under Cotterill)

Are Burnley Our Bogey Team?

I have decided to try and run some Excel jiggerypokery to it all. The results may well be interesting. For the interests of a cut off point I decided use our re-arrival in the Championship as a neat point.

We ran a matrix of results and then ran three tests against those. Namely who beat us most often, who we scored the least points against, and who we had the least wins against.

There were 38 teams we have played in that period. I cut off Cup Games and Playoff matches because well these pressure games stand alone from the usual range of a normal season. Also we have ignored the games this season as it's unfair to compare teams we have played this season and those we haven't, It'd skew the data

Teams We Lost Most Against.

A simple measure would be counting who we lost most often against.

Top 10 Losses
Burnley 5
Cardiff 5
Derby 5
Hull 4
Watford 4
Birmingham 3
Doncaster 3
Leeds 3
Leicester 3

So even on a first pass we can see Burnley is a thorn in the side, alongside Derby and Cardiff. But that isn’t a true picture. We have played some times more than others.
A simple percentage of games we lost show the following

Top 10 % Losses
West Ham 100%
Hull 66.67%
Burnley 62.50%
Birmingham 50%
Blackburn 50%
Cardiff 50%
Derby 50%
Leeds 50%
Newcastle 50%
Norwich 50%
Portsmouth 50%
Southampton 50%
WBA 50%
Wolves 50%


Which isn’t too accurate because, well, we only played West Ham twice in the Championship? So breaking that down by removing teams we played for only 2 seasons of fixtures against shows this.

Top 10 % Losses Frequently played)
Hull 66.67%
Burnley 62.5%
Birmingham 50%
Cardiff 50%
Derby 50%
Leeds 50%
Watford 40%
Doncaster 37.5%
Leicester 37.5%

We lose a higher percentage of games against Hull than we do Burnley. But they remain our biggest foe in this division at present. But that’s only one type of illustration. There is the also the following.



Points Scored Against OppositionFor this it’s simple a case of dividing the games played against the points scored to get a true picture of how we do in addition to defeats. (PPG means points per game)

Top 10 Lowest PPG
West Ham 0
Blackburn 0.5
Hull 0.67
Brighton 0.75
Birmingham 0.83
Burnley 0.88
Blackpool 1
Bolton 1
Norwich 1
Sheff Utd 1

Again like before this is without removing teams we hardly ever played, but yeah West Ham and Blackburn seem to have holds on us.
In terms of teams we played more often

Top 10 Lowest PPG (frequently)
Hull 0.67
Birmingham 0.83
Burnley 0.88
Blackpool 1
Sheffield United 1
Cardiff 1.1
Derby 1.1
Doncaster 1.13
Leicester 1.13

Hull and Birmingham are far worse bogey clubs in a simple points scored ratio. We just seem to draw a lot more against Birmingham than lose. If we factored in this season Brighton would now be removed, but it’s unfair to include teams we have played this season against teams we haven’t.
Finally, how about how many times we beat teams.


How Often We Beat Teams
These are the teams we have the least wins against. It’s just a simple count so yes, is skewed.

Top 10 Least Wins
Blackburn 0

Bolton 0

Brighton 0

West ham 0

Birmingham 1

Blackpool 1

Huddersfield 1

Hull 1

Newcastle 1

Norwich 1

QPR 1

Sheff Utd 1

WBA 1

Represented as a percentage it looks like this

Top 10 Least Wins %

Blackburn 0%

Bolton 0%

Brighton 0%

West ham 0%

Blackpool 12.5%

Birmingham 16.67%

Hull 16.67%

QPR 16.67%

Sheffield United 16.67%

When we remove the teams we played less than 5 times it looks like this

Top 10 Least Wins Frequent

Blackpool 12.5%

Birmingham 16.67%

Hull 16.67%

QPR 16.67%

Sheffield United 16.67%

Burnley 25%

Doncaster 25%

Leicester 25%

So actually Blackpool and Birmingham are the teams we win least against. Burnley for that matter we do get wins against (and tellingly at home) Birmingham are a surprising one in those stats.

If you factor all 3 together, Burnley pound for pound seem to be the biggest bogey club currently in the division, but Birmingham and Hull have been problems. Thankfully Hull got promoted, and Birmingham has started having serious problems so in that regard aren’t the force they always were. It’s interesting that considering other teams that Doncaster appear a few times in these lists and Derby and Leicester too. The likes of Reading and other big teams we play at this level don’t appear to be the problem you’d think they are, and Ipswich for instance are a team we have extremely good record against (incidentally the best team for scoring points against is Peterborough)

So yes, Burnley are a bogey club, and add to that their form, we can expect astern challenge on Saturday. However 2 out of the last 3 seasons we have beaten them at home, so that’s on our side. But for once fan opinion is accurate for once.

Maybe Only a Draw, But It Shows Positives

A little over a year ago we played Birmingham City at the City Ground, and after being the better team we conceded goals in the second half that lead to us losing. I missed the game as I was off being a Best Man at a wedding instead.

A year on and again we played Birmingham, but with a new board, new players, new manager and most importantly, a new found belief. What a difference a year makes.

Goalscorer Harding

Whereas in this situation last year the heads would drop immediately and we would capitulate completely, this year, we rally, we regroup, and we try to get back in the game. Well, probably, we have limited experience in this art in the new regime.

Lining up in the familiar 4-1-3-2 formation, but with Sharp in for Cox, who had done well to recover enough to be among the subs. Halford remained left back, with Hutchinson down the right, and Ayala and Collins in the middle. Gillette once again holding, with McGugan, Reid and Guedioura given license to get forward. Sharp and Blackstock up top.

Starting Formation

The first half though largely unremarkable was shaded by the Reds. The high point came when McGugan took a free kick that required a save by Butland. We had a couple of other set piece opportunities too. However that all said the most clear cut chance fell to ex Forest striker, Marlon King. The much maligned and travelled King should really have done better, but Camp had reacted well to make himself the bigger target than the net. That said King had got himself a free chance around 10-12 yards from goal, he could and should have done better, but that’s not to discredit good work from Camp.

The second half was about the goals. The goals conceded, and how it forced Forest to change their team up which enabled the goals.  The goals we did concede were classic Forest. It may be a regime but we still seem to struggle to deal with the ball when it’s bouncing round the area.  Indeed it was bouncing round after Birmingham’s attack, and a word on Birmingham in the second half, the introduction of Redmond on the right wing completely changed the game. It gave them a potent threat which to their credit they utilised. Hayden Mullins eventually lashed home the first after a scramble. The second shortly after was all about Redmond down the right side, cut across and King finished low into the corner with aplomb.

And so it looked all lost. At this stage in the last seasons this game was over, but not this with this team. We shuffled the ranks, and cut to a back 3 and pushed the full backs on to play more into midfield, and it worked. Guedioura was removed and to be fair that’s the worst game I have seen him play in the Garibaldi.

Finishing Fomation

The first goal, well we must have all seen it, glorious at it was. McGugan lofting the ball forward, and then Cox producing some sublime skill and finishing.  He controlled the balls flight and then flicked it over the keeper within a moment. Almost one movement, it wasn't allowed to hit the floor. Wonderful.

And then we were after them trying to win. The equaliser was all about the cross coming over, passing everyone, and Harding coming in unmarked at the back and firing it into the goal via a deflection. It was no more than we deserved. And indeed Sharp could have won it late on which would have been the most incredible of endings.

All told it could have been so negative, but no, Forest pulled it out the bag and shown a grit and steel we lacked last season.

Cox changed it all coming on, but the shuffle of formation was so vital. The fact we looked close to defeat and still got something out of this is a very good sign of this team not dropping heads and the good spirit in the squad

Onwards and upwards.

Dexter at the Double

I am not sure there are many of us Forest fans who expected to get anything out of the game versus Birmingham on Saturday, but lo and behold if Dexter Blackstock, scorer of that vital survival goal 3 years against Bristol City weighed in with goals again that could help play a vital part of us staying in this division.

Blackstock's brace were his first goals upon his return from his long term injury lay off, since that day at Cardiff that was a wonderful victory that came with huge costs. Blackstocks strikes also illustrate that the big man might now be back to himself, rather than the few first few weeks of him getting himself back up to speed.

It wasn't even a if this was a smash and grab away win like so many before it, but deserved win, on the back of a strong performance. From everybody. All the more with Higginbotham going off injured and Lynch having to once again come in and fill the void.

Both goals additionally came from renaissance man Garath McCleary, whose form has been instrumental in our improved performances and results. His crosses from the right resulted in both goals for the Reds. G-Mac as I said has been instrumental in recent weeks, and again showed it here.

The first for Blackstock was close range finish after a low cross at the near post. The second was a wonderful piece of control from G-Macs cross, where he killed it mid air and finished well. Not a goal of the season, but nonetheless great technical ability and high standard control. In between Chris Burke scored a good left footed shot for the Blues, which when they scored I will admit I thought the worst and that they would go on and finish us off.

The fact that I thought this, and no doubt many others did speaks volumes about how far we have come in the last few weeks. We had character and determination, and that new drive saw us get the win. The new loanees have given us not only new quality but new belief and confidence. Guedioura has been immense.

Luck was even on our side too; with Faheys drive hitting the bar. This might have gone in a few weeks ago, but like how Guedioura hit the bar against Middlesbrough late on and we lost out this time it was our luck that held.

Make no mistake this is a giant win. More so because of results elsewhere not being ideal, but without us winning it would have been disastrous. Instead it also brings other clubs into the relegation mix. Instead of a couple of weeks ago it looking like it was 3 from 4, now Bristol City and Millwall are not safe yet either.

Huge win Forest. Huge.

Calderwood Tug o' War

The installation of Chris Hughton as manager at Birmingham City has created a game of tug of war between them and Nottingham Forest over the future of Colin Calderwood.

Calderwood was of course Hughton's assistant at Newcastle, after being our former manager, and now he is very much a man in demand. After it was revealed in the week that McClaren wanted Calderwood to be his assistant and take charge of young player development.

But now following the appointment of Hughton, He wants his former assistant who got Newcastle promoted to join him at St Andrews. All of this of course is forgetting that Hibernian, where Calderwood currently enjoys employment still want to retain their man. They did after all say no approach would be welcome.

All this hullabaloo creates somewhat of a media storm around the Scottish former defender. Maybe it plays into Hibs hand when working out compensation packages. Maybe it shows that genuinely the man is highly regarded, and those Forest fans bemoaning the potential reappointment of Calderwood at the club are wrong.

I think the likelihood would be Calderwood would follow Hughton, he knows he works well with him, and recently. Birmingham will have deeper pockets and can offer European football. However, Calderwood may feel he has work left to be done with Forest. Additionally maybe he wants to carry on with Hibs,and prove he is a good manager.

The coming few days will be very interesting.