Are Burnley Really Our Bogey Club?

As we approach the big match against Burnley this week it reminds that Burnley are somewhat regarded as one of our bogey clubs. Half the time its unexplainable and we simply just say, yeah they are our bogey clubs. But is there any truth?

We all have that association between knowing that sometimes we will just beat a team, like we are often other team’s bogey teams. I remember when I was a kid Wimbledon seemed to have a hold over us, but then everyone struggled at Plough Lane. In a more modern context Walsall are oft cited as being a bogey club, as well until more recently Doncaster Rovers.

You could argue of course, especially in recent lights Blackpool are of course one, they just beat us, there was that playoff semi final, it just feels like they always win, but Burnley for me is just one of those teams who seem to win all the time. It’s a hard place to go, and they quite often give us a good game or a beating down at the City Ground (I remember them singing is there a fire drill 2 years ago or so as we limped to an insipid defeat under Cotterill)

Are Burnley Our Bogey Team?

I have decided to try and run some Excel jiggerypokery to it all. The results may well be interesting. For the interests of a cut off point I decided use our re-arrival in the Championship as a neat point.

We ran a matrix of results and then ran three tests against those. Namely who beat us most often, who we scored the least points against, and who we had the least wins against.

There were 38 teams we have played in that period. I cut off Cup Games and Playoff matches because well these pressure games stand alone from the usual range of a normal season. Also we have ignored the games this season as it's unfair to compare teams we have played this season and those we haven't, It'd skew the data

Teams We Lost Most Against.

A simple measure would be counting who we lost most often against.

Top 10 Losses
Burnley 5
Cardiff 5
Derby 5
Hull 4
Watford 4
Birmingham 3
Doncaster 3
Leeds 3
Leicester 3

So even on a first pass we can see Burnley is a thorn in the side, alongside Derby and Cardiff. But that isn’t a true picture. We have played some times more than others.
A simple percentage of games we lost show the following

Top 10 % Losses
West Ham 100%
Hull 66.67%
Burnley 62.50%
Birmingham 50%
Blackburn 50%
Cardiff 50%
Derby 50%
Leeds 50%
Newcastle 50%
Norwich 50%
Portsmouth 50%
Southampton 50%
WBA 50%
Wolves 50%


Which isn’t too accurate because, well, we only played West Ham twice in the Championship? So breaking that down by removing teams we played for only 2 seasons of fixtures against shows this.

Top 10 % Losses Frequently played)
Hull 66.67%
Burnley 62.5%
Birmingham 50%
Cardiff 50%
Derby 50%
Leeds 50%
Watford 40%
Doncaster 37.5%
Leicester 37.5%

We lose a higher percentage of games against Hull than we do Burnley. But they remain our biggest foe in this division at present. But that’s only one type of illustration. There is the also the following.



Points Scored Against OppositionFor this it’s simple a case of dividing the games played against the points scored to get a true picture of how we do in addition to defeats. (PPG means points per game)

Top 10 Lowest PPG
West Ham 0
Blackburn 0.5
Hull 0.67
Brighton 0.75
Birmingham 0.83
Burnley 0.88
Blackpool 1
Bolton 1
Norwich 1
Sheff Utd 1

Again like before this is without removing teams we hardly ever played, but yeah West Ham and Blackburn seem to have holds on us.
In terms of teams we played more often

Top 10 Lowest PPG (frequently)
Hull 0.67
Birmingham 0.83
Burnley 0.88
Blackpool 1
Sheffield United 1
Cardiff 1.1
Derby 1.1
Doncaster 1.13
Leicester 1.13

Hull and Birmingham are far worse bogey clubs in a simple points scored ratio. We just seem to draw a lot more against Birmingham than lose. If we factored in this season Brighton would now be removed, but it’s unfair to include teams we have played this season against teams we haven’t.
Finally, how about how many times we beat teams.


How Often We Beat Teams
These are the teams we have the least wins against. It’s just a simple count so yes, is skewed.

Top 10 Least Wins
Blackburn 0

Bolton 0

Brighton 0

West ham 0

Birmingham 1

Blackpool 1

Huddersfield 1

Hull 1

Newcastle 1

Norwich 1

QPR 1

Sheff Utd 1

WBA 1

Represented as a percentage it looks like this

Top 10 Least Wins %

Blackburn 0%

Bolton 0%

Brighton 0%

West ham 0%

Blackpool 12.5%

Birmingham 16.67%

Hull 16.67%

QPR 16.67%

Sheffield United 16.67%

When we remove the teams we played less than 5 times it looks like this

Top 10 Least Wins Frequent

Blackpool 12.5%

Birmingham 16.67%

Hull 16.67%

QPR 16.67%

Sheffield United 16.67%

Burnley 25%

Doncaster 25%

Leicester 25%

So actually Blackpool and Birmingham are the teams we win least against. Burnley for that matter we do get wins against (and tellingly at home) Birmingham are a surprising one in those stats.

If you factor all 3 together, Burnley pound for pound seem to be the biggest bogey club currently in the division, but Birmingham and Hull have been problems. Thankfully Hull got promoted, and Birmingham has started having serious problems so in that regard aren’t the force they always were. It’s interesting that considering other teams that Doncaster appear a few times in these lists and Derby and Leicester too. The likes of Reading and other big teams we play at this level don’t appear to be the problem you’d think they are, and Ipswich for instance are a team we have extremely good record against (incidentally the best team for scoring points against is Peterborough)

So yes, Burnley are a bogey club, and add to that their form, we can expect astern challenge on Saturday. However 2 out of the last 3 seasons we have beaten them at home, so that’s on our side. But for once fan opinion is accurate for once.

Dip Becomes Wobble

I always enjoy the different naming conventions with football on when things are a wobble, crisis, disaster etc. What was looking like a dip in form can officially it seems be upgraded to a wobble. These of course happen. Most teams will go through something similar. When and how it happens seems to alter the terminology.

The lack of form against Bournemouth and Yeovil has now stretched out to the game versus Blackpool. What is especially galling is that Blackpool had clearly come for a point and we still conspired to lose the game in injury time.

Ignoring the fact that the goal looks like it shouldn’t have stood. Ignoring the fact we feel we should have had a penalty (is that really such a bonus with our similar form with those) we still managed to let Blackpool score when they hadn’t really been pushing. Yes they missed an extremely poorly taken penalty (not very well struck, decent height and fairly central) but it’s not like they really pushed us.

It’s November now, and it really strikes me that even at this stage that Billy Davies isn’t sure what the best team is. That’s because we’ve never really had a fully fit squad for him to choose from. Never mind the best team but which best system to play. The 4-3-2-1 was favoured early on at times last season, whilst occasionally reverted to the 4-1-2-1-2 diamond formation we implement quite often.
So it was a frustrating game, but there is more then immediately meets the eye. My opinion, different from one or two other blogs is that we were unlucky to end up losing. It’s easy to look at things in terms of goal scoring opportunities, and Blackpool did have clearer ones, but they also looked less likely to score for periods of the game.

What was annoying was the way the striker’s role ended up being. You’d think with a big man up front he’d act more as a target man, especially with the set up of two wide men. The initial view would be that the Henderson would be the huge aerial threat from crosses from Abdoun and Mackie. In reality he was an increasingly deserted figure up front. Lansbury not getting forward as much as Majewski in the free role to play more behind the front line. Instead you see your target man often dropping deep to look for the ball. This isn’t what he was therefore. Unless his role was somehow to act as a role to gets the ball in to wide men cutting inside, but with Mackie on the right that is not likely. He’d need to be on his wrong wing to be cutting in side.

Is it the midfield the battle is being lost? Well some times. The strikers though and the midfield have a disconnect. The ball goes u the pitch and comes back when it is lost. Possession not being retained and the defence come under attack again. Chalobah was meant to seal that plug but he’s not working. Whether he prefers a different role, or as many say, he just isn’t bothered and knows what ever happens ultimately his success doesn’t rely on Forest succeeding.

But it’s more the manner against Bournemouth and Blackpool in consecutive home games we have conceded late goals to cost points. Is this complacency, or a lack of concentration, or just luck? Well that’s for Billy Davies to look into.

Forest Continue To Grind Out Draws To Keep Playoff Push Alive

So my ultimate plan of what we needed with 10 games left of 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats is out the window. We now have 3 draws in that time. That’s fine because the playoff chase is not following any rules this season.


In normal circumstances drawing 3 in a row after sneaking into the playoffs including 2 home games would and should seen us drop out of the playoffs. Such is the constant tripping over of each other in this race, we actually look in a stronger position than before we got into 5th place.

The Brighton game always looked dangerous and Turf Moor is a place we never had much luck at. Blackpool was a team with a psychological hold over us. And so it came to pass. Blackpool although never really the better team despite whatever delusions Paul Ince tries to pass off as reality had the lead and forced us to break them down slowly. Ultimately it was another penalty when it came.

We seem to be getting that stroke of luck with late penalties at the moment salvaging us a point here and there, and how vital will they be come the end of the season? Potentially we will rely on them. And of course Lewis McGugan netting again, where 4 strikers on the pitch once again toiled to no avail.

A word on Blackpool though, they have capable players and extremely dangerous wingers (though Pauls, valuations of son Tom Ince’s value looked laughable on the strength of this game). That said the way the embarrassingly tried to waste time at all junctures after taking their lead was almost embarrassing. How their keeper wasn’t booked is beyond me, but we can forgive the ref as he gave us the penalty (albeit stonewall) and sent off briefly ex Red Isaiah Osborne for a rash tackle. Again Ince’s delusions came out where he claimed it was never a red, even though he was late, high and with legs up. Ince’s quotes mentions it wasn’t a red as they were on top. How does this work Paul? How is a red card offence not a red because which team has an upper hand? Even that negates the fact they clearly didn’t. Blackpool had around 2 shots all game, one a goal, the other hit the bar. In Paul Ince world that’s dominating a game. Maybe he was convincing the thousands at home this was the case, as Blackpool’s away support was for a team who have been top flight in the recent past miniscule.

For me this was a game where the midfield had a lot of the ball with no real end product. Reid’s passing deserted him, Majewski was quieter than usual. Guedioura at times was hit and miss some wonderful passing but then some ill advised attempts at dribbling in bad positions. The defence looked fairly firm, except when Matt Phillips had a couple of pacey mazy runs where he really challenged them, and it bothers me this misguided cries from the crowd of tackle him. You try and jump in that stage and you get passed, or you take him out and get booked. Jockeying for the right time to put your foot in is completely the right thing to do. But fans want you to jump in with a sliding tackle to win in spectacular fashion. You cannot touch especially from behind a player like Ince or Phillips in full flow, they will go down.

It was kind of depressing to see a familiar type of conceded goal that Blackpool scored. The midfielder with that extra yard or so of space to net with aplomb. I’d say it was a good goal, but we have seen a few guys do exactly the same goal. Liam Trotter for Millwall springs to mind. The defence sit off giving him the space to set his body to shoot without closing down. You’d think we’d learn by now but evidently not.

But my mind is split. On the hand the wins have temporarily dried up, just as we come up to a very tricky away day to Cardiff, (that said we do well down there) but on the other hand, these are games we could easily have lost, and have gained 3 points at the death from nothing. That same 3 points is currently our buffer for being in the playoffs. That connection has to be made. Additionally we have extended our unbeaten run now, and that can only be a good thing. If we are to fail to win, points at this stage add up, as shown by the last 3. If we did get a draw at Cardiff, which will go a long to helping us, we would definitely remain in the playoffs for another week, and all the psychological benefits of that, we’d have gotten over our biggest hurdle in the run in

Seven Points in Seven Days

7 Points From 7 days




A glorious week in the still early season for Nottingham Forest has seen them fly from obscurity to the edge of the playoffs.

After what some regarded as a mini crisis in September, where we struggled in several games including the Derby game, the results against Cardiff, Blackpool and Barnsley in the same week have catapulted the reds back up after the slide in form had been halted against Peterborough.

It’s one of those weeks that make you start to believe. The team is moulding slowly but surely into a unit, players settling in others finding form. Chris Cohen, although one of our longest serving players, is like a new signing since his return from injury. Billy Sharp has settled in, and has started scoring. The only problems remain the defence which is thin on strength in depth, and the discipline which has plagued us all season carries on.

The discipline is a strange one. Simon Cox had got booked in all his early appearance. Adlene Guedioura has had two red cards in consecutive appearances. There are needless yellows coming all round the team and further suspensions will kick in as these slowly accumulate for the likes of Halford, Harding etc. This has bought to us the need for Elliot Ward to be signed. Not just as cover for the injured Ayala, but also in case of the likely further suspensions at the back for others.

The win against Cardiff was particularly pleasing as I am not particularly fond of the south Wales side. I find them particularly abhorrent. So to see them play badly, and in their favoured blue kits of old was pleasing. We were good, make no mistake, but they were also awful. Reid’s free kick was expertly placed, the header moments later by Ayala to put us two up was also great, Halfords cross had been wonderful. And although we wavered at times, mainly after Sharp added a third, allowing Helguson to score and Guedioura getting himself sent off, we remained firm and took what could be a huge win against one of the top teams in the division.

It’s a benchmark to do so well against the likes of Cardiff. To say yeah we can beat the best teams at this level. But then also to getaway and scratch a draw at tricky Blackpool is also a positive. Yes we had the lead, and yes Blackpool were depleted, but we came back late on which shows a resilience that can be only a good thing. Sharps goal was instinct, the ball fired in which he merely manipulated and redirected into the net. Blackpool fired a quick salvo double to put themselves in the driving seat, only for Dexter Blackstock to keep himself in that frame. With Cox and Sharp on form, Blackstock could easily be forgotten, but if he carries on to chip in with goals when he can it’s nothing but a bonus.

And so Barnsley away. A place that hasn’t been the happiest of hunting grounds for Forest. In fact it’s been a bleak place for us. The capitulation under Megson always stands out to me as it illustrated almost a nadir, a low point of my following the club. A wet cold miserable day with a miserable defeat in what became an embarrassing Brazilian away kit.

Saturday though, a few of those demons were laid to rest with a 4-1 win. Make no mistake Barnsley are average at best. They exist to survive at this level. I can’t think of any of their players who’d get on our bench never mind in first XI. But we allowed them the lead. Harewood, who always scored had missed a couple and so was getting some semi playful abuse. It was always going to come back and haunt us. He was played in too easily, raced clear, rounded Camp and scored. Notably he didn’t celebrate at all, making a motion to the Forest fans that he was being understated. Fair play to the lad. He will always be Forest.

Then we woke up. The goals came fast and furious. Halfords poked shot deflected in. From the away end t was hard to tell what happened. The bright sun shining behind the goal blinded us and also put that end in very dark shadow. It looked like at first it had just evaded the keeper. No the deflection was obvious on TV. Then Cox netted from Sharps parried shot. And then very soon after Cohen had fired into the top left from 20 yards to put the game beyond much doubt. The quickness of the goal seemed to have sucked the enthusiasm out of the Tykes. The fans little cheering from a small turnout dwindled. They had a good chance to make it 3-2 in the second when Camp saved well, before what might be Jenas last action in a Forest shirt for now. He was played in, went clear to one on one with the keeper and deftly flicked it over the keeper to make it 4-1, finish the game off, and send half the Barnsley fans home.

So all in all very much a bonus. We briefly went to 6th in the table, before Hull won later in the evening. We are the edge of the top positions; we know we can beat those top teams. And we have come from behind a few times. There is a problem that we are conceding and needing to have to either come from behind or defend a lead. Neither of which make for happy viewing.

But consider a number of our promotion seasons or close seasons started with a blip. Under Frank Clark we didn’t exactly race clear to start with. We snuck under the radar under Calderwood. Even under Davies we never started up the top, starting slowly before steamrolling through the end of the calendar year, having a blip in January and limping through the Spring.

So it will be fascinating to see how this season pans out. We seem to have settled now on the 4-1-3-2 formation, which Gillette has been the fulcrum of. The defence would be settled if not for injuries. The midfield allows for rotation to stop players becoming jaded. The front two of Cox and Sharp look like being the chosen due. So all the moans when we limped through September of we didn’t even know our best formation never mind team seem to have been silenced. We at least know how we want to play, and we have a good idea of who, if only they’d all stop getting suspended, we might have a settled team. There’s still Lansbury to get fully fit yet, and he should genuinely show some class. All bodes well.

Tangerines Hold Forest

A 0-0 that is not dull is somewhat of a rarity, but this one of them. Proven by the fact the crowd hadn’t emptied out early and that the fans didn't boo in the way that large swathes like to do when we don’t win regardless of how we played.

Moussi and McCleary were of course missing, seeing Anderson come into the team after a lay off, which may be part injury, part exile following his tussle with Tudgay. This meant Guedioura took the more defensive covering midfield role. McGugan and Majewski played in roles that tried to push on more.



If anyone deserved to win this game it was surely Forest who had the better chances. The clear one was Dexter Blackstock's header from a Cunningham cross, Cunningham who for me was man of the match, getting a lot of rewards for his runs down the left.

There were other close efforts for Cunningham himself and for Majewski. Blackstock early on had gotten clear and blazed wide and high.

It was pleasing to see that the corner routines from the previous game that were failures were removed and instead a new one that looked better, with a near post ball that Anderson flicked on or headed at goal. Anderson may have been targeted as he would be one of the last people you’d expect to be a target man at a corner.

Blackpool though remained a threat. It was always one of those sides you'd fancy to bomb up the other team and look dangerous. However the rarely directly threatened. I also have to say about Blackpool is that I have never seen such wrapped up subs warming up at half time. Huge coats, woolly hats and gloves. It wasn't THAT cold. Taylor Fletcher should have done better with a half volley effort. Ince had always looked tricky and dangerous.

So we didn't win, but with results as it were a draw has bought us to the brink of survival. It would take a hugely monumental set of results from Coventry to get out of jail on this one.



We go to Reading on Tuesday in a game even if we were near the top I'd fear. We are one of the top form teams in the division, but Reading are on fire, with super sub Le Fondre a man to fear even if the likes of Roberts don’t work out.

All in all, entertaining, but still lacking that vital punch. Blackpool of course are up there, and we have taken 4 points off them this season. That’s commendable.

Back to Back Wins Illustrate McClarens Shortcomings

Following Saturdays defeat of Blackpool Forest have already equalled what we achieved under Steve McLaren in his tenure. Steve Cotterill has taken just two games to do as such. A 100% record is all we can ask for as fans.

Seeing as Cotterill was a somewhat maligned appointment, this is obviously wonderful news. The win on Saturday was a hard fought victory. It wasn't a smash and grab by any means. But we did make a lot of hard work. Thomas Ince for instance at times made or defence look like they were playing statues.

This was of course by the time we were looking good anyway. The first goal was a familiar gal in the past, but hasn't been of late. A headed goal from a corner, which used to be Chambers domain for netting, but Big Wes stepped up. Tudgay had gone close and Chambers also with a header had chances. Blackpool of course had their own, it wasn't one way as I said.

Their goal didn't have that inevitable feel that usually happened under McClaren. But it was the defence standing off. Allowing Kevin Phillips a chance to get some space is naive. He is a natural goalscorer. And we gave him all the speed he wanted. He duly showed us why thats bad. A low drive into the corner.

But when Majewski scored the winner it did feel a little against the run of play. A throw in that dropped to the Pole who volleyed home. I still think Matt Gilks should have done better in Blackpool's goal. No matter, I don't mind when it comes to Forest nicking a goal.

As said Blackpool had chances and maybe should have equalised. I think that would have been fair. As said though, for what we have been through, I don't care one iota or have any sympathy. Especially as Blackpool had a 4 wins in a row record against us.

So the fact that with the very same players that McClaren had (in fact less as Hill had returned to QPR) Cotterill has been able to carve a double wins, with a similar formation. The differences are the defence looks like it now has a clue,the players don;t look completely unmotivated, and they seem to want to play for the new Steve rather then the Old Steve.So had McClaren lost the dressing room, well that much is apparent. I supported the man but admit I was wrong. The fact Cotterill has done so much more in 2 games than McClaren did in his 10 speaks volumes.

It has been said that, I think it was on Football Weekly's podcast that going for the big showy name doesn't work at this level.you go for the grafter,the budget worker. Look at Leicester, Sven has as good track record as anyone, and he didn't get this division right.

All in all, things look good for Forest again. Confidence is back.