The International Breaks Killer Effect

I said it at the time that I worried the International break would kill our momentum, I’ve mentioned it at length during many posts in the post game synopsis lately, but there are the cold hard facts. Since the break we, out of the playoff contenders are on the second worse form. Only Palace are in a worse vein of form than us.


To look at it in context Charlton, though unlikely to make the playoffs, being 4/5 points off the chase with 2 go are the inform side in the pack. I have looked at what the various teams have done since the break, and though hardly any are on stellar form it has completely killed our momentum. And it’s not as if we were the only squad to lose people to international squads, we all pretty much have squads with them in.

Although no-one completely recovered from the break form wise, we had ours shot to pieces. 0 wins and 4 draws since then with 2 losses. We had that run of games before the break which were all wins, and that includes the likes of Hull. Post break and we can’t beat anyone.

That 2 week break allowed teams to prepare and understand our game. Additionally, if you won 3 days or 7days previously you have a psychological edge. Going into games after 2 weeks, well it’s almost a clean slate in terms of that Psychologically the last game was so long ago that a break either sets you back, as in our case, or apparently sets you free and gives you a fresh start as with Charlton.

Going purely on a post break table of playoff chasers, it looks like this.
1. Charlton 14points
2. Bolton 12 Points
3. Brighton 10p
4. Watford 8p
5. Leicester 6p
6. Forest 4p
7. Palace 2p

So by that basis, if we’re playing for 4 spots, and you almost rule of Charlton due to distance behind (and I’m including them only as an illustration of a point) we would deserve to miss out with Palace. Palace have admittedly in that time played only 5 games whilst the rest have all played 6, so it might even be that we’d be bottom of that table if based on 6 matches.

So it’s obvious to me that the break killed the momentum we had built, and ultimately may cost us. There’s no guarantee of that of course, it’s also quite possible we’d have started losing sooner, but the whole naive argument that it’s the break the players wanted is and was frankly ridiculous. When you hear anything players say when they are on form games can’t come soon enough, not let’s have a nice long gap. Think of anything you do in any sphere of life, when you’re on fire or in the zone you want and need to keep going. Any kind of break in that will cause a proverbial bump in the road.

I don’t think our great form would have carried on indefinitely, but look at the evidence in front of us. Failing to beat mediocre teams, whimpering performances. Before the break we were on the cusp of history and a new all time winning run. Now we are in the worst run of form this season (if we count games without a win.) Nothing’s changed. The personnel are the same, but that emotion and that wave of optimism that was created were allowed to end due to the time off. We have retreated back to the McLeish games now. Davies got us motivated, set us up on fire. But that could only last so long.

Yes people and Davies said we had looked leggy before the break, but no worse than other teams, and that’s what a squad is for. To be able to cover or rotate to rest the odd players. The fact is it wasn’t really a break to several key players, who were international duty, and who picked up knocks (Lansbury) or got punched by Suarez (Jara) There is still lots of travel and training to cover for. And some people seem to think the rest of the players didn’t train and just have their feet up whilst colleagues jet around the world. It’s scarily naive.

All we need is to break this slump and win the next two games, which is somewhat against the odds now to hopefully break back into the top 6. Though fate is out of our hands, we can certainly pile pressure on this Saturday with a win. The worry is a losing mentality has set in, but that said, the evidence of last week is they haven’t given up. Yes we didn’t win, but we created those chances and but for the width of a post would have won. It isn’t over till the fat lady sings, and I don’t hear any singing yet.

Whisper It No Longer, Promotion is a Real Possibility

Although I looked at the issue before and made certain projections and guesses about what we would need for promotion, I have tried to remain somewhat calmer on the issue than deciding that we are on the up. With some very dangerous fixtures coming up there were plenty of pitfalls and traps to stop our bid to reach the playoffs.


Well, things change. Not only have we overcome a very tricky fixture that I had factored at best as a draw, and a potential defeat, but the possibility of surpassing even the playoff aim remains very real. Not just real, but also within our grasp.

I scoffed not long ago at people suggesting we could make it. With 10 games left we’d need 31 points to reach the average points tally for promotion, and would need to win 8 games to reach the lowest over the last few years. But this year’s championship is a strange beast. Compare the points range to League One for instance and it is frankly scary. Anyone below 9th is embroiled in a relegation scrap. Above and it’s all open save for Cardiff moving clear at the top. 15 points spate the playoffs from relegation give or take. Derby in 9th would be the mire had they not beaten Leicester hovering 2 points above the drop in around 19th. The lower mid table is that tight. In League 1 the range is more like 30 points between playoffs and relegation.

What that suggests is 1, how tight the league really is, and 2 that such a thin spread of points means that the points needed to go up, might drop accordingly. Everyone seems so keen to slip up that it leaves the race wide open.

And now following that away win at Hull it is on. The race is open, and we’re driving a big tree shaped object right into that gap. I haven’t looked at the odds but over the last few weeks our odds must have tumbled quite dramatically. We still remain an outside by position and by our fixtures. But that forgets the momentum we have built.

Unfortunately the international break may well scupper that. Some are saying it will be a rest and a break to reinvigorate forgetting that we have our fair share of internationals that will be off representing their various nationalities. It’s only a break if you aren’t playing, and Guedioura, Cox, Lansbury and Majewski, all pivotal players in recent weeks will be off with their nationalities. I’ve tried to find out if Jara is away with Chile but the squad lists I found aren’t conclusive. But that’s an integral core of the squad who won’t be getting rests or having their feet up as many seem to think the international break is for, but instead will be busy.

Davies had spoke about the players looking leggy, but bear in mind he hasn’t rotated people at all to counteract that in the midfield or defence. Up front has seen various changes to combat injury, illness or specific targets the team wants. Bear in mind the one position struggling to hit the high levels expected is the one where we have been rotating. The strikers have struggled to net a lot, whilst the settled midfield went on a free scoring run of form. The defence have looked more secure. So the notion they need a rest for looking leggy is already looking slightly misplaced. The midfield was rotated earlier this season and didn’t reap the rewards of a settled structure and personnel.

The win against Hull has firmly established our credentials as promotion chasers, even for Claridge and Manish Bhasin to contend we are in there. Not just because of our form, but the fact the rest of the contenders seem intent on not going up. Watford, Leicester, Middlesbrough, Palace have all gone onto dodgy form, Brighton wavered until yesterday and we know about Hull. So not only are we hitting form, but everyone else is losing theirs.

The win on Saturday may well have been a backs to the wall job late on, and Bruce may rightfully claim they could and should have got more out of it, but you have to score those chances you get which Hull didn’t. It was always going to happen that Boyd scored for Hull after the whole Eye-gate thing at the end of January, but that episode bought about where we are today indirectly. And under McLeish we would have wilted. Instead we buckled down, got a goal through big Darius, and then snuck a winner and battled to a win clearing off the line in the last moments after McGugans goal. Radio Nottingham spoke of a slice of luck, and that occasionally you need to utilise it, and we surely did that on Saturday.

We could easily have only taken a point from that, and I think many would have been content with that, but as the wins continue to come so does the level of expectation rise, and I hope that doesn’t lead to pressure implosion we sometimes see with Forest, usually in the playoffs. We’ve played with the pressure firmly off of late. And we have reaped the rewards. The pressure will be on in a new way soon. And now we have to manage that. The fairweathers who demand wins for the few games they go to, as they only come out when we’re winning will be out in their droves. We just need make sure these legacies of the past; of imploding when the pressure and focus comes back to us doesn’t happen again. Maybe that’s why an under the radar, unheralded run has helped. No-one really saw us as contenders. Now they do, and so do we.

Dexter Gets Called Up

Good week for Dexter Blackstock after returning to goal scoring form he is now set to commence his International career by playing for Antigua and Barbuda.

Blackstock is eligible via his Grandfather and so will join his new international team mates in a friendly versus Trinidad and Tobago, before they enter the next phase of World Cup Qualification where they will face Guatemala, Jamaica and against his teammates Robbie Findleys nation of USA.

The game will be played at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, which is much better known (Although also infamously) as a West Indies Cricket venue, used in the 2007 Cricket World Cup.

International Update: Earnshaw and Gunter called up to Wales Squad

Robbie Earnshaw and Chris Gunter were today called up into Gary Speed's first Wales squad.

Both are scheduled to play some part in Wales' Carling Nations Cup game against the Republic of Ireland on Tuesday 8th February.

Speed has also gave a recall to ex-Forest loanee Aaron Ramsey, who is in line to make his first Wales appearance since breaking his leg last February.