Whats Needed?

Saturday has made it abundantly clear that we are nowhere near good enough to be in the mix for promotion. No matter what you think of McLeish his record speaks for itself, he knows how to take teams up out of this division. So you’d hope he needs to identify what the problem is. And yet we seem to be struggling to put together a capable team. However, that said it might not be as simple as it seems. Here we look at what might be the key to unlocking the promotion capable side.

I for one think there is no point at looking at the front line anymore. Henderson now means we have 4 strikers who are good at this level, and have proven goal scoring records to back this up.

So is the problem in the midfield? We spent all January and the previous summer saying that this position looks sorted. We had so many options, that anyone targeting it looked mad. We could have a made a team of just midfielders!! However, the ball is just not being held by the midfield and immediately putting the defence under the cosh (don’t worry we’ll come on to the defence in a moment) the way which Watford carved through the midfield before getting to the defenders was alarming. Too often standing off and letting teams play. Is the balance of 1 holding and 3 in front, although narrow, working?

A flat 4 strung across the park is what many have called for, but it’s somewhat old fashioned, and to merely suggest a straight 4-4-2 does negate the whole evolution of tactics. But is Gillett, so lauded early on, doing his role? Not any more in my mind. If you look at the great teams at the moment, they all have that holding midfielder. So for those to cite a midfield with no holding misfield as the key and the way forward (I see people citing a midfield pairing on McGugan and Majewki as an answer....) is somewhat foolish. Man City have Yaya Toure, United use Carrick, Barcelona have Busquets, Juve have Pirlo. We have Gillette. If you look at those players above, they are not only great ball players, but also physical presences. Gillett is anything but a physical presence. I was one of his biggest fans earlier this season, but for me it’s one glaring area of the team we aren't performing. But is it his fault, or is it the structure of the team. If you think of those teams utilising that role, many of them are also playing the more evolved systems whereby it’s more a hybrid of 4-5-1 with a 4-3-3. Those 2 difference between midfield and attack are neither full on strikers, but neither are they midfielders. Look at Chelsea. As well as a sole striker they have very attack minded midfielders (although 3 in this example and not the 2 I have cited) who get forward readily to support. Lampard and Ramires or Obi Mikel would then hold. The same with City. Silva and Milner can get forward to provide the service. City often use a second striker though, a more deep lying number 10. A Trequartista. Aguero or Tevez but they are shorter take this on, with Dzeko as the lump to aim at. Arsenal are a great exponent of this. Barcalona have evolved it to a point they don't even need a striker

That would mean an evolution in our team. One of the 4 strikers would play. Now McLeish has tried to drop Cox deep, but I’m not sure that works. Dexter after Saturdays performance would likely look to be dropped. Leaving Sharp. Sharp is pretty much undroppable this season, but can he play that sole role? Perhaps not, but Henderson possibly could. This is all theoretical of course. I doubt this would be implemented, but is more looking what other teams do.

So in that essence we need a new enforcing midfielder. Moussi is not that man, he is imposing and should be able to play the role, but is so maddeningly inconsistent and is prone to horrific errors to consider that. Moussi though did work well in the Davies teams as that role. If we could get his form right, we already have the right man in the squad.

As for the defence, well when I look at the best teams, my main criticism that ours is too slow almost looks redundant. However, Vidic and Ferdinand at United aren’t the fastest and at Barca, Puyol and Pique aren’t fast either. However I believe we need at least some  pace, if not someone who isn’t going to get turned easily. Watford had two smaller zippy strikers and if we play that sort of team again we might struggle. We did well against Derby because they had a big focal point striker in Sammon that we could go like for like and clear up. But if long balls aren’t going to play through, and it’s all on the ground, our defenders struggle. Ward is slow. As much as he wins most in the air, he often seems to slide in late, when he does at all. Collins I rated until recently, and probably still would, but he too is more comfortable in the air rather than defending on the ground. Would Ayala be any different? Possibly. He’s more cultured, but he still isn’t exactly pacey, and Watford last time did the same thing, when he did play. So therefore a new central defender looks like it should be a priority.

Also where we also went wrong at Watford was the midfield cover. As much as I mention Gillett he isn’t the only one to blame. The midfield doesn’t defend well, because we play narrowly, there is now natural wide protection, and when things get sucked in down the middle we are fine. Attack with semblance of width and we struggle. Look at the goals from Watford. Two came semi wide positions, balls played across. Whenever there were players running through to support and  and the attacked played a squared ball, we just didn't cope with it, but lump it up the middle and we can usually defend. No natural width means any wide protection so attackers are on our full backs without any kind of forward defence. Whereas before we would have had a McCleary, Anderson or Reid, there is no one. Cohen tries to get wide, but down the right side on Saturday we had no natural width at all. And that’s why Jara didn’t look as good as what he has.

Now maybe when McLaughlin settles he can provide that, but we can’t wait. We need it now. Maybe this is why McLeish is so desperate to get in Burke. He could provide this width, and balance, and which paradoxically for the point of my arguments returns us to a flat 4-4-2. But that’s tactics. It’s such a convoluted and complex game that if it was so easy we’d all be managers. The variables on that midfield are almost endless. Different players bring different skills. We need a merry blend, and right now we aren’t getting that. All the best teams have this balance right. The ball winner, the play maker, width, pace, protection. On Saturday a lot of that was lacking.

And all this without mentioning the tactic of merely hoofing the ball long. Which doesn’t work with our players. They weren’t signed for that system, they can’t play that system. Play to your team’s strengths is something McLeish said he’d do. Saturday showed no evidence of that whatsoever.

Friendly Matches Show Team Coming Together

So now the season is getting closer to the start and we have played Villa and County is recent friendlies, the teams starting to take shape, though what the starting line up versus Bristol city is still not 100% clear.

Against Villa the game had been equal for the first half before we showed a bit of class and Villa fell apart. It was a very poor Villa team, but a heartening sight was Lewis McGugan looking like he remembered what it’s like to score a goal.

The midfield for now looks like it will be narrow, there is a lack of width in the squad, so Guedioura played a bit wide, but was often inside the pitch, which lead to Villa having a ridiculous amount of space down the left, and the introduction of Moussa to play a natural wide game cut this out in the second half, and Villa had nothing to offer attacking wise after this.

This sums up perfectly the requirement for natural width. Moloney had been targeted and had Warnock been able to control a ball last Saturday things may have been different, the left back so often failing control passes to atatck the right back. That said, admittedly more a change for seeing what a player can do, and not so much tactically it shows that S’oD is aware tactically and can close a threat off.

Now we have Ayala, we might start to see a more senior defence, with Halford in his accustomed right back slot, Moloney although capable is perhaps a League One starting right back, handy as a backup, but not really a starter for a team of our aspirations.

The midfield is looking crowded, full off options, but all of them central. Gillett, now signed is the Paul McKenna figure, does all the unseen graft and hard work that so many people fail to grasp. Without this type of player last season we were lost. Moussi is inconsistent, and not really a ball player. He’s more a destroyer, a de Jong, than Gillett’s Deschamps ball carrier type player, dropping deep and making things happen.

Around then we have creative options, Lewis, looking good again and Radi, still for me so inconsistent, there are those who laud him, and yes he is capable of wonderful performances, he is also capable of disappearing completely form a game. Cohen too is to come back fully, whether he is the same player is unclear, we could implement him on the left, but Reid is looking athletic out there, rather than pushing Reid into an advanced role to support a striker (a role Majewski occasionally took on)

We have a plethora of options up front, with perhaps another signing to come. Blackstock is definitely a first choice, with Findley, Miller, McGoldrick or Derbyshire to play off him. Tudgay is more a Blackstock back up, but every time I deride him, he comes good and proves me wrong. We look to be perhaps signing Simon Cox, who would signify the end surely of Derbyshire’s Forest career. Also perhaps the signing of Bader al-Mutawa, as this is unclear at the moment what is happening provides even more options.

The defence now has balance, and some cover, though very youthful cover. Lascelles has a big season ahead, try and break in the team, and he will get chances, the very nature of that position means suspensions are going to happen, as well as injuries (Ayala has a chequered history)Lascelles needs to graps these chances. As said Moloney can cover right back, and perhaps Freeman at left back. Fenton appeared last night against County, and perhaps he will play a part, but surely this would be too much too soon for him.

Camp has the no.1 jersey and we have not seen much since the first few friendlies from the Kuwaiti keeper Khaled al-Rashidi, rumour has it some of the Kuwaitis have been outright refused work permits, and the only likelihoods would be al-Mutawa and al-Rashidi.

So, all in all close to being there, options exist, but a true right winger would be nice, McCleary is a big loss there, and Anderson could have covered, the problem was Anderson was spent here, his fighting and fall outs last season, and general lack of any kind of final ball. It has been a joke for a while that we had a winger who could neither cross nor take on his man. So that’s my one focus, with maybe more cover at centre half. Loans can be used wisely here, once Premiership squads have been finalised and players miss out on a final 25 berth.

Optimism is definitely my key word here.

Majestic Majewski Fires Forest to Brink of Survival.

Forest have given themselves a huge shot in the arm towards survival this season with a wonderful hat trick from Radoslaw Majewski. The previously much maligned Majewski that is, and I as much as anyone has been a harsh critic of the Polish midfielder.
It seems now that Steve Cotterill has now found a suitable role for Majewski and will be looking to utilise him in this role effectively. This free role behind the striker but free from many of the normal midfield responsibilities plays to the strengths of Radi. He is not and will never been an effective midfield partner due to his lightweight nature and can’t tackle very well at all, when he tries.

Pushing him into a role which leaves Blackstock alone up front can be frustrating formation as it leaves the striker often exiled on his own up front. This is however why it is mostly used away, and it means we got bodies back. But then it works best when you have McCleary and Guedioura in the midfield as well, as these players initial thought upon gaining possession is to charge forward and counter attack at speed. The perfect away game style. Reidy too is there to support in an attacking context. It leaves the likes of Moussi to play their defensive midfielder role without having to have much in the way of thought to supporting the more attacking aspects.

Not quite in the Deschamps water carrier role, but more a de Jong type destroyer, not without his attacking responsibilities mind. Finally the midfield has balance and shape it lacked before. Greening couldn't play these roles effectively and McGugan can’t seem to motivate himself to play the Radi role, (which he was clearly earmarked for, hence the no.10 shirt) which Cotterill had tried him in earlier. Neither Radi nor McGugan make effective wide men, as it’s not their position. McCleary and Reid are wingers through and through so they can play it well. Even last year when we played well we had Anderson on one wing and often had to use Cohen on the other. Cohen would play this role in a Gudeioura role, although maybe not as effectively.



It came to bare wonderfully at Selhurst Park, where we ran out winners against Palace in a game up which that point looked finely balanced. Majewski was able to roam around and that’s why his goals came from all 3 sides. His first from the left wing, where he cut inside and lashed home, his second a centrally curved shot and his third came from the right hand side. This alone illustrates the new freedom this has given him and how he can now play. Before hand playing in a midfield duo in the middle simple didn't get the best from him as his defensive side had to be included so you lost an effective body in the middle which invited the opposition on.
Consider as well that oppositions have been focussing on stopping McCleary has he was the form man and it freed up even more space for the rest of the midfield and in particular Majewski.

Now with him freed up and Guedioura and Moussi playing the deeper role it allows more freedom. It is very much a style de rigeur at the moment. Using amore advance midfielder as support with attacking wide men, not too dissimilar from many of the top sides in Europe. It took time for us to get the right bodies to play it. Blackstock, the perfect foil to hold the ball up, in a way Tudgay and Miller haven’t been able, and certainly not Derbyshire. It has also bought the best out McCleary encouraged to rampage forward more and not worry as much with covering his full back as now we have two deeper sitting midfielders to cover that role. Reidy has been given more freedom too.

So all those who have suggested that it shows Cotterill was wrong. Well no, it illustrates the fact that as he said, he had a disjointed squad. He couldn’t play players where he wanted to play. When Gunter gets put on the right, we lose some of that verve we have with G-Mac in the team. The final piece in this puzzle was getting Majewski fit and driven and having a fully fit Blackstock back. This has all happened perfectly on schedule to bring us to the brink of survival and has shown that yes, we do have a good enough squad.

There were and are still lapses that stop us being a very good team. The defence still not off and allow other teams to attack. Thankfully this was mostly after we had the lead at Palace but they still had chances at 0-0 that might have seen a different result. Many had discussed removing Radi at half time apparently, putting on a more recognised striker. The problem with a sole striker is that the onus on him to win possession from long punts means more often than not the ball starts coming back, with the packed midfield though, there are more bodies to win in and cut passes out and starts the attack from there. A second striker to help win the ball doesn’t allow for that. Both systems have benefits and away from home this is proving perfect. Now we need to work at home too or another system to do so on Saturday and all but secure survival against Bristol City. Either that or home fans recognise that we don’t HAVE to play 4-4-2. Footballs evolved, so do the fans perceptions.

Where Have Things Been Going Wrong?

Following our dip in form all sorts of fingers have been pointed in all sorts of directions about why this is so. People point to a lack of new faces in an injury stricken squad, fatigued as it is without having to cover for injuries too.

Some blame a longer view of the same thing, that we should have signed other better players back in the summer and have a larger squad, but a better squad that can ride out crises like we have been having.

Lets just point out the players who have recently been out through injury. Moussi, Tyson, Blackstock, Lynch, Findley and apparently Wilson (who if you believe some sources is being frozen out for having the temerity to sign a deal with a new club.

OK Moussi prior to injury was in majestic form, that's granted. Blackstock is missed, but we bought in a like for like change with Tudgay to cover for Dexters time out. Findley is an unknown quantity so we can't really comment there and Lynch is at best a reserve. Tyson is very hit and miss, but like Moussi had played well in certain games, but as his good old moniker of Mr Glass shows he is always prone to an injury.

What I will try and do here is illustrate with the help of formation builders where some of the issues have been. Also is a much bigger issue of motivation.

I mention motivation because look at the teams we have been struggling against. Preston, Sheffield United, Scunthorpe. All teams fighting for their lives. Hull was a different example and I will point this out this shortly as to why I believe that was always a disaster that was going to happen. What is also apparent is that the essentially the team has been the same.

So do we lack motivation against smaller teams, a sense of complacency, or are these teams just more of a challenge than we give credit for? Well remember one basic mantra always repeated about this division, anyone can beat anyone on any given day. This has been shown time and again this season. However, Preston, Scunthorpe and Sheffield United have done this less over the season, a lot less hence why they are where they are. Admittedly the week before we drew with Preston, QPR drew too. If this whole thing of anyone beating anyone were to be true, then the whole division would surely be tighter. However I take it that yes on a one off most team are equal.

The problem becomes when teams set themselves up a certain way to play at City Ground. Lower teams pack the middle of the pitch,leave a man up front and basically make it very hard for us to break them down. And we often have no plan B to do this. Hoping instead that a gradual war of attrition will see us break through this defence. Until recently it worked. Teams once we score have to come out their shell and attack us, and then we can find those gaps when they release those midfield shackles of footballing oppression.

Preston really shouldn't have been mentioned. That really should have been a win. Lets not forget we didn't lose either, though this fully illuminated the problems that manifested themselves against Hull. That 96th minute goal though I think may have affected the confidence of some of the players however, and coupled with the Hull game where we had an unfamiliar setup for the team and a lucky deflection giving the Tigers a win has seen this team panic somewhat. Me and my fellow writer of this site were both unable to attend Tuesday night at Bramall Lane, but the familiar signs of old appear to have been there. Lack of concentration.

In 4 of our better recent wins, and I take the Derby home game, the Coventry away win, the Cardiff home win and the Watford home win for this, the teams only showed subtle differences. forced in part by Moussi's injury, and an inspired change in the team to bring in Tyson v Derby to harass Leacock. The core of the team remained the same.

By the same token I have taken the teams against Scunthorpe, Preston, Hull and Sheffield United to look at. The team v Scunthorpe is largely the same, as it is almost v Preston, Hull enforced changes bought about that defeat, and Sheffield United was as much player confidence.

In this the formation against Derby, you can see essentially its a 4-4-2, but slightly skewed for positional sense. Ramsey was picked on the right but he switched with Majewski somewhat on this role. Unusually for Billy both wingers didn't swap as much as usual. Tyson hallmarked for Leacock at right back, to rip him to shreds. Moussi with the role to sit deep and break up play and create new attacks. A Lassana Diarra type role, or Alex Song.

Its not a 4-1-3-2 in the sense that That implies a more central attacking midfield trio. Tyson was unashamedly a winger here. Make no mistake this was was a team tailored for the in. Cohen had been dropped, and McGugan and Anderson also on the bench. Those 3 on the bench was pretty much a one off.

If compared with the team v Coventry,Cardiff and Watford,the same basic structure exists, but the personal used were wielded in slightly different ways. There is moe fluidity. Instead of Tyson rigidly on the wing, McGugan is encouraged to come inside more often, and Cohen push out onto the left. Similarly wingers may switch. What is rigid is the role of Moussi, or McKenna in later games to sit back and cover. Provide an outlet to switch play if stuck in a channel and act as abridge between defence and attack.

The defence and attack have remained rigidly the same. In fact for most of this period they have stayed that way. The defence seeing on occasional enforced change at left back, and the attack mainly staying Earnshaw and Tudgay, only being changed for knocks,with Adebola being unleashed as a late weapon to try something different.

Indeed this exact same shape was used against Preston with nigh on the same personnel. Preston however are fighting, and perhaps there was an under estimation. There feels at times like the team are sure they will break the others down, it's just a matter of when, and in Preston that was borne out. We did eventually grind them down, and then fell asleep at the back thinking the job was done and conceded a sucker punch of a goal (that was no more than Preston deserved) Scunthorpe again was a similar team with Tyson playing the Anderson role.Tyson however as most of us know has no right foot worthy of speaking about.When he's on the right wing, he has to switch inside every time. Defenders and mangers will know this if we can notice it for sure. What was mentioned that day was the fact the pitch was seen as a great leveller. We couldn't play our game on a surface less like a carpet, but the battlefields of World War I.

Against Hull it all went wrong.

The same basic idea. But as I've tried to show Cohen is not a player who sits deep. I could have arrows pointing everywhere, but I will leave it basic. His was the McKenna/Moussi role of sitting deep and breaking up play. That is not Cohen's game,he is a box to box midfielder and that is what he will try and do. No matter how you try to shackle him to that role, his natural instinct is to get forward to assist the strikers. To change that role is to take his best attributes away. His game is not defensive. OK, he may well be asked to play that role, but he can't do it as effectively. Then we have 3 other players all busting a gut to be the scorer. So now instead of Cohen who plays box to box next to a deep lying midfielder, we have 3 others trying their damnedest to get forward,with little or no inclination to get back. It's a double loss to the midfield. Cohen who has boundless energy is no longer rushing back and forth, his role as support at both ends is gone as Majewski doesn't pull back as much, and so we have situation like their goal where the defence is suddenly opened up, with no support in front to stop that (albeit deflected) pass getting through.

All our best periods of the season have this set up. A defensive midfielder designed to break up play and give the ball invariably to the other central midfielder whose role is to break forward, and create attacks. We have broke this mould on rare occasion. The win against Swansea as good a model of what we changed.

Two midfielders sitting deep to nullify threats. Cohen played a wider left role, and McGugan encouraged to join Blackstock as much as he can, but to play a midfield role. More of a 4-2-3-1 formation. And by golly it worked.

Finally, when we went on that wonderful run through December,January and into February, we had been more rested. Decembers fixtures had been decimated by the weather. So the players were fit,and they were eager to get on that pitch. Now we are in a rut and the next game is always right around the bend. It sticks in the memory. We worried a long break may hurt our form and lethargy may creep in. Well now we could do with a break. When on good form, games can't come soon enough, when in a dip, the next challenge is right there.
Luckily there's an international break creeping up.

By then Moussi may be back, perhaps Findley. And we no longer play teams at the bottom, who seem to be our achilles heel.