Ok the nature of this piece is going to be a critique and a moan if you will, but first off I do appreciate the new openness of the club, and inviting in the cameras and Natalie Jackson to talk candidly about the club and peoples desires for the club and where to take it.
That said it does merely smack of spin. That since the great falling out in January and February and the calling into question of Fawaz ownership of the club this has been a big PR exercise to mend a few fences and rebuild a nice big bridge.
First off the whole spiel about this being an access all areas expose and insight into how the club is run is a little over the top on bravado. We didn’t’ see anymore than most other clubs would expose and any manager worth his salt will be putting in similar methods as Billy does. That I guess or employ a lot more people to assist in it.
The pains they went to show that Billy does love the academy, and that he goes to games and is trying to involve on the hand does dispel the rumours he was always against it, and that is good to see, but again it’s like we are going too far the other way to trying to prove it.
What we just had was the interview at Fawaz house. Now don’t get me wrong he said all the right things, but he was hardly going to get tripped or tricked into saying the wrong thing by Natalie Jackson. It’s not an uncommon rumour that Fawaz looked at Everton first and in that regard his whole I always loved Forest thing he sort of said (Ok he said Clough) was a bit farfetched. On the same hand if you’re paying (presumably the BBC didn’t spend our license fee on this) for a journalist to go to Kuwait and stay there, you’d sort of want control of the script. Because it was, those questions clearly would have been vetted with only a little artistic license for expanding on points.
The attempts to illustrate how rich Fawaz was though were a little disconcerting. Look at my warehouse full of (at least all of which red) cars, some of which worth vast sums. Look at my palatial manor, with the interview being done in front of suitably cool football wallpaper motif (not an obvious crass image, but still retro and suited enough to be regarded as kooky)
Yeah ok, I think the whole manner which this was tackled bothered me and like many fans I should just lap it up, but it just seemed like a political broadcast on behalf of Fawaz, bought to you by the one journalist Billy knows dares not write anything bad about him so as to not to lose her favoured position to get all his exposes.
I don’t think we needed that last part. I thing genuinely show the training and the efforts put into games but the last part really cemented it to me as basically Forest manipulating the BBC into showing the happy warm side of the arrangement. Get Fawaz to admit errors, look a bit furrow browed, but then make sure you say all the right things about the future.
I am firmly behind this regime at the club. I doubted Billy, and I did briefly doubt Fawaz, though I was never one of the great many people in January and February who decided he was poison (I saw one fan say he’s the worst thing ever happened to Forest, and had a bit of argument with another who ranted about how we’d been bought by the wrong group and should have waited, we couldn’t) But I don’t think we need saccharin piece on how the club is all together.
A number of people lap it up completely. Most I know seem to take some of it with a pinch of salt. I.e. we are only seeing what the club want us to see. But it did feel like a mini version of the much derided “Being Liverpool”
It clearly illustrates a new direction in terms of PR and media relations at the club following all the sackings; maybe it’s a good thing that there is clearly new openness. But there’s a line I think we sailed too far over. We don’t need illustrations of how wealthy Fawaz is; I simply don’t see the need. I haven’t seen other chairman doing this, and there is always a case of them trying a little too hard to prove this begs the question, why is there the need?
This new direction of utilising the media although clever is also firing a little off target. Any key element for me would be at least a little more self effacing, and Natalie Jackson is hardly the greatest journalist to ever forge a career. There are more capable people out there who could do that better job, but clearly aren’t the favoured choice of Billy, just look at the lack of Radio Nottingham pieces.
I am not trying to be over critical here before people suggest an unprovoked attack on the club. I am not that guy. It’s just a comment on how the facts and to a degree fan opinion is being moulded and manipulated in a very clever PR ruse. January and February have largely been forgotten now. Those question marks and frustrations forgotten and it’s not largely been down to spin, no it’s been down to success on the pitch.
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Podcast 4 - The International Break
The latest podcast, this time welcoming new panelist Gareth Dennis who joins us in usual panelist Ben's absence. We cover a variety of topics but mostly looking at recent form,and our chances of promotion.If you fancy joining the podcast team drop us a message on Facebook, Twitter or on the forum. All links to the right in the side banner
As usual available to stream or download from Soundcloud (get the Soundcloud app to be able to subscribe) and on Youtube to watch below.
The Soundcloud version
The Youtube Version
As usual available to stream or download from Soundcloud (get the Soundcloud app to be able to subscribe) and on Youtube to watch below.
The Soundcloud version
The Youtube Version
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Settled Midfield Reaps Benefits
At the start of this season we signed a glut of midfielders. Considering we were already quite blessed in this position it seemed a strange one. Already in possession of Majewski, McGugan, Moussi, Greening, Reid and Cohen in the midfield we added Gillett, Coppinger, Lansbury, Guedioura, and since the summer McLaughlin.
It led some wags to choose a XI of just midfielders. But what it also led to was a lot of chopping and changing, some of it enforced, some of it for the sake of it to use them all. This led to a very unbalanced side and players badly out of form. Guedioura looked a shell of the player he was last year, Lansbury never settled, McGugan and Majewski seemed peripheral and unneeded.
Fast forward to now and a lots changed there. Instead of the tinkering, there is consistency, and as a result the team is winning.
We started the season with an element of consistency. The same midfield 4 was frequently used right up till we lost a couple against Leeds and some lot called Derby. We went with Gillett, Guedioura, McGugan and Reid. This consistency as I say was partially enforced, Lansbury and Cohen both injured at this stage. The last game of this run of the midfield saw Guedioura get sent off against Palace and so the chopping and changing began, and the form faltered.
If you look from the end of November up to and including the Watford game, a run which many wanted SoD to be sacked during, the form was inconsistent, with horrible defeats, but also quite good results it would look now (0-0 at Brighton doesn’t look bad) Gillett started in that run, but didn’t finish, Moussi taking over, Guedioura and Cohen were used in a majority of games but would be dropped (and sometimes bought on at half time) and Lansbury and McGugan switched in and out the team. Coppinger played a couple of times. In fact the prevalence of early substitutions does smack a little of a manager trying to tinker to get things right, and although now we look fondly back at O’Driscoll period on charge, there were glaring inconsistencies. I for one think we would have got it right, but it was a case of trying to juggle too many balls.
The problem is there no –one gets a consistent run of form and it told. When McLeish came in he had a midfield which was largely out of form, he didn’t know his best side, and besides, a midfield is superfluous in a McLeish team as the ball gets humped over them (I again implore you to seek out Aliaksander Hleb’s quotes on this from his spell at Birmingham)
So how was it Billy was instantly able to galvanise this midfield into one that is a constant, in form, and above all free scoring. Well he seemed to decide on a different set of personnel and although in the familiar 1-3 layout, with one deep the other attacking, gave a certain artistic license to Majewski, who revels in such a role. Lansbury gets to be the box to box midfielder, and Guedioura gets treated more a quarter back to control the play. Gillett played this role before but with the quarter back element. Instead of long balls forward, he was more like a rugby scrum half, getting the ball and passing sideways. Guedioura's range of passing far outstrips Gillett’s, and though both don’t shirk the physical side of the game, Guedi is bigger and stronger, and can shrug off challenges.
We have also now settled on a formation. O’Driscoll by and large used the 4-1-3-2 at home but was prone to adjusting to a 4-2-3-1 formation, which didn’t work. Indeed when we altered to this against Wolves for a while we struggled to control the game. The sole forward with less support struggles to maintain possession. Additionally, having the 2 men sitting deeper means we don’t attack in the same force. I am also acutely aware I supported this formation saying many modern teams play it. They do, but that’s in the Premier League.
Whether it was a case of SoD trying to keep people fresh, and that he did have knocks to contend with we will never properly know. But we were doing better before he kept trying to adjust the midfield, and the formation. Billy has faithfully stuck to his 4-1-3-2 and it’s paying dividends. He hasn’t tried to evolve the game to involve more width; he sees what we have and is making the best of it. Players like greening and Moussi are kept involved, but are not integral. The only usual change is to see McGugan come into the fray for whoever looks like they need removing. And he is a great foil to be able to bring on.
I guess the challenge becomes when a result or two goes against us, and maybe then chopping and changing might be seen. When you’re in a great run you don’t makes too many changes, except in our case when the strikers just aren’t firing. I keep seeing people suggest involving more width, or that we should change the structure, but why the hell do anything when the team doesn’t changing? People seem to want to tinker for the sake of it, and what we illustrated above shows that doesn’t work. I think as said before that too many people play Football Manager and think because what happens in a fictional cyber world will play out exactly in reality. It doesn’t work like that.
It’d be interesting to see what happens if Guedioura got injured, would Davies favour this system with either Moussi or Gillett, would he reshuffle to a 4-4-2, a flatter formation with Reid wide or Lansbury on the right? All conjecture. Why change what’s working unless we have to? Consistency. It is the watchword of the day for me, and it shows how obviously it is needed.
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| Lansbury has been able to settle in team under Davies |
It led some wags to choose a XI of just midfielders. But what it also led to was a lot of chopping and changing, some of it enforced, some of it for the sake of it to use them all. This led to a very unbalanced side and players badly out of form. Guedioura looked a shell of the player he was last year, Lansbury never settled, McGugan and Majewski seemed peripheral and unneeded.
Fast forward to now and a lots changed there. Instead of the tinkering, there is consistency, and as a result the team is winning.
We started the season with an element of consistency. The same midfield 4 was frequently used right up till we lost a couple against Leeds and some lot called Derby. We went with Gillett, Guedioura, McGugan and Reid. This consistency as I say was partially enforced, Lansbury and Cohen both injured at this stage. The last game of this run of the midfield saw Guedioura get sent off against Palace and so the chopping and changing began, and the form faltered.
If you look from the end of November up to and including the Watford game, a run which many wanted SoD to be sacked during, the form was inconsistent, with horrible defeats, but also quite good results it would look now (0-0 at Brighton doesn’t look bad) Gillett started in that run, but didn’t finish, Moussi taking over, Guedioura and Cohen were used in a majority of games but would be dropped (and sometimes bought on at half time) and Lansbury and McGugan switched in and out the team. Coppinger played a couple of times. In fact the prevalence of early substitutions does smack a little of a manager trying to tinker to get things right, and although now we look fondly back at O’Driscoll period on charge, there were glaring inconsistencies. I for one think we would have got it right, but it was a case of trying to juggle too many balls.
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| Radi blossoming in new role |
The problem is there no –one gets a consistent run of form and it told. When McLeish came in he had a midfield which was largely out of form, he didn’t know his best side, and besides, a midfield is superfluous in a McLeish team as the ball gets humped over them (I again implore you to seek out Aliaksander Hleb’s quotes on this from his spell at Birmingham)
So how was it Billy was instantly able to galvanise this midfield into one that is a constant, in form, and above all free scoring. Well he seemed to decide on a different set of personnel and although in the familiar 1-3 layout, with one deep the other attacking, gave a certain artistic license to Majewski, who revels in such a role. Lansbury gets to be the box to box midfielder, and Guedioura gets treated more a quarter back to control the play. Gillett played this role before but with the quarter back element. Instead of long balls forward, he was more like a rugby scrum half, getting the ball and passing sideways. Guedioura's range of passing far outstrips Gillett’s, and though both don’t shirk the physical side of the game, Guedi is bigger and stronger, and can shrug off challenges.
We have also now settled on a formation. O’Driscoll by and large used the 4-1-3-2 at home but was prone to adjusting to a 4-2-3-1 formation, which didn’t work. Indeed when we altered to this against Wolves for a while we struggled to control the game. The sole forward with less support struggles to maintain possession. Additionally, having the 2 men sitting deeper means we don’t attack in the same force. I am also acutely aware I supported this formation saying many modern teams play it. They do, but that’s in the Premier League.
Whether it was a case of SoD trying to keep people fresh, and that he did have knocks to contend with we will never properly know. But we were doing better before he kept trying to adjust the midfield, and the formation. Billy has faithfully stuck to his 4-1-3-2 and it’s paying dividends. He hasn’t tried to evolve the game to involve more width; he sees what we have and is making the best of it. Players like greening and Moussi are kept involved, but are not integral. The only usual change is to see McGugan come into the fray for whoever looks like they need removing. And he is a great foil to be able to bring on.
I guess the challenge becomes when a result or two goes against us, and maybe then chopping and changing might be seen. When you’re in a great run you don’t makes too many changes, except in our case when the strikers just aren’t firing. I keep seeing people suggest involving more width, or that we should change the structure, but why the hell do anything when the team doesn’t changing? People seem to want to tinker for the sake of it, and what we illustrated above shows that doesn’t work. I think as said before that too many people play Football Manager and think because what happens in a fictional cyber world will play out exactly in reality. It doesn’t work like that.
It’d be interesting to see what happens if Guedioura got injured, would Davies favour this system with either Moussi or Gillett, would he reshuffle to a 4-4-2, a flatter formation with Reid wide or Lansbury on the right? All conjecture. Why change what’s working unless we have to? Consistency. It is the watchword of the day for me, and it shows how obviously it is needed.
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| Guedi the new DM |
Monday, March 18, 2013
Whisper It No Longer, Promotion is a Real Possibility
Although I looked at the issue before and made certain projections and guesses about what we would need for promotion, I have tried to remain somewhat calmer on the issue than deciding that we are on the up. With some very dangerous fixtures coming up there were plenty of pitfalls and traps to stop our bid to reach the playoffs.
Well, things change. Not only have we overcome a very tricky fixture that I had factored at best as a draw, and a potential defeat, but the possibility of surpassing even the playoff aim remains very real. Not just real, but also within our grasp.
I scoffed not long ago at people suggesting we could make it. With 10 games left we’d need 31 points to reach the average points tally for promotion, and would need to win 8 games to reach the lowest over the last few years. But this year’s championship is a strange beast. Compare the points range to League One for instance and it is frankly scary. Anyone below 9th is embroiled in a relegation scrap. Above and it’s all open save for Cardiff moving clear at the top. 15 points spate the playoffs from relegation give or take. Derby in 9th would be the mire had they not beaten Leicester hovering 2 points above the drop in around 19th. The lower mid table is that tight. In League 1 the range is more like 30 points between playoffs and relegation.
What that suggests is 1, how tight the league really is, and 2 that such a thin spread of points means that the points needed to go up, might drop accordingly. Everyone seems so keen to slip up that it leaves the race wide open.
And now following that away win at Hull it is on. The race is open, and we’re driving a big tree shaped object right into that gap. I haven’t looked at the odds but over the last few weeks our odds must have tumbled quite dramatically. We still remain an outside by position and by our fixtures. But that forgets the momentum we have built.
Unfortunately the international break may well scupper that. Some are saying it will be a rest and a break to reinvigorate forgetting that we have our fair share of internationals that will be off representing their various nationalities. It’s only a break if you aren’t playing, and Guedioura, Cox, Lansbury and Majewski, all pivotal players in recent weeks will be off with their nationalities. I’ve tried to find out if Jara is away with Chile but the squad lists I found aren’t conclusive. But that’s an integral core of the squad who won’t be getting rests or having their feet up as many seem to think the international break is for, but instead will be busy.
Davies had spoke about the players looking leggy, but bear in mind he hasn’t rotated people at all to counteract that in the midfield or defence. Up front has seen various changes to combat injury, illness or specific targets the team wants. Bear in mind the one position struggling to hit the high levels expected is the one where we have been rotating. The strikers have struggled to net a lot, whilst the settled midfield went on a free scoring run of form. The defence have looked more secure. So the notion they need a rest for looking leggy is already looking slightly misplaced. The midfield was rotated earlier this season and didn’t reap the rewards of a settled structure and personnel.
The win against Hull has firmly established our credentials as promotion chasers, even for Claridge and Manish Bhasin to contend we are in there. Not just because of our form, but the fact the rest of the contenders seem intent on not going up. Watford, Leicester, Middlesbrough, Palace have all gone onto dodgy form, Brighton wavered until yesterday and we know about Hull. So not only are we hitting form, but everyone else is losing theirs.
The win on Saturday may well have been a backs to the wall job late on, and Bruce may rightfully claim they could and should have got more out of it, but you have to score those chances you get which Hull didn’t. It was always going to happen that Boyd scored for Hull after the whole Eye-gate thing at the end of January, but that episode bought about where we are today indirectly. And under McLeish we would have wilted. Instead we buckled down, got a goal through big Darius, and then snuck a winner and battled to a win clearing off the line in the last moments after McGugans goal. Radio Nottingham spoke of a slice of luck, and that occasionally you need to utilise it, and we surely did that on Saturday.
We could easily have only taken a point from that, and I think many would have been content with that, but as the wins continue to come so does the level of expectation rise, and I hope that doesn’t lead to pressure implosion we sometimes see with Forest, usually in the playoffs. We’ve played with the pressure firmly off of late. And we have reaped the rewards. The pressure will be on in a new way soon. And now we have to manage that. The fairweathers who demand wins for the few games they go to, as they only come out when we’re winning will be out in their droves. We just need make sure these legacies of the past; of imploding when the pressure and focus comes back to us doesn’t happen again. Maybe that’s why an under the radar, unheralded run has helped. No-one really saw us as contenders. Now they do, and so do we.
Well, things change. Not only have we overcome a very tricky fixture that I had factored at best as a draw, and a potential defeat, but the possibility of surpassing even the playoff aim remains very real. Not just real, but also within our grasp.
I scoffed not long ago at people suggesting we could make it. With 10 games left we’d need 31 points to reach the average points tally for promotion, and would need to win 8 games to reach the lowest over the last few years. But this year’s championship is a strange beast. Compare the points range to League One for instance and it is frankly scary. Anyone below 9th is embroiled in a relegation scrap. Above and it’s all open save for Cardiff moving clear at the top. 15 points spate the playoffs from relegation give or take. Derby in 9th would be the mire had they not beaten Leicester hovering 2 points above the drop in around 19th. The lower mid table is that tight. In League 1 the range is more like 30 points between playoffs and relegation.
What that suggests is 1, how tight the league really is, and 2 that such a thin spread of points means that the points needed to go up, might drop accordingly. Everyone seems so keen to slip up that it leaves the race wide open.
And now following that away win at Hull it is on. The race is open, and we’re driving a big tree shaped object right into that gap. I haven’t looked at the odds but over the last few weeks our odds must have tumbled quite dramatically. We still remain an outside by position and by our fixtures. But that forgets the momentum we have built.
Unfortunately the international break may well scupper that. Some are saying it will be a rest and a break to reinvigorate forgetting that we have our fair share of internationals that will be off representing their various nationalities. It’s only a break if you aren’t playing, and Guedioura, Cox, Lansbury and Majewski, all pivotal players in recent weeks will be off with their nationalities. I’ve tried to find out if Jara is away with Chile but the squad lists I found aren’t conclusive. But that’s an integral core of the squad who won’t be getting rests or having their feet up as many seem to think the international break is for, but instead will be busy.
Davies had spoke about the players looking leggy, but bear in mind he hasn’t rotated people at all to counteract that in the midfield or defence. Up front has seen various changes to combat injury, illness or specific targets the team wants. Bear in mind the one position struggling to hit the high levels expected is the one where we have been rotating. The strikers have struggled to net a lot, whilst the settled midfield went on a free scoring run of form. The defence have looked more secure. So the notion they need a rest for looking leggy is already looking slightly misplaced. The midfield was rotated earlier this season and didn’t reap the rewards of a settled structure and personnel.
The win against Hull has firmly established our credentials as promotion chasers, even for Claridge and Manish Bhasin to contend we are in there. Not just because of our form, but the fact the rest of the contenders seem intent on not going up. Watford, Leicester, Middlesbrough, Palace have all gone onto dodgy form, Brighton wavered until yesterday and we know about Hull. So not only are we hitting form, but everyone else is losing theirs.
The win on Saturday may well have been a backs to the wall job late on, and Bruce may rightfully claim they could and should have got more out of it, but you have to score those chances you get which Hull didn’t. It was always going to happen that Boyd scored for Hull after the whole Eye-gate thing at the end of January, but that episode bought about where we are today indirectly. And under McLeish we would have wilted. Instead we buckled down, got a goal through big Darius, and then snuck a winner and battled to a win clearing off the line in the last moments after McGugans goal. Radio Nottingham spoke of a slice of luck, and that occasionally you need to utilise it, and we surely did that on Saturday.
We could easily have only taken a point from that, and I think many would have been content with that, but as the wins continue to come so does the level of expectation rise, and I hope that doesn’t lead to pressure implosion we sometimes see with Forest, usually in the playoffs. We’ve played with the pressure firmly off of late. And we have reaped the rewards. The pressure will be on in a new way soon. And now we have to manage that. The fairweathers who demand wins for the few games they go to, as they only come out when we’re winning will be out in their droves. We just need make sure these legacies of the past; of imploding when the pressure and focus comes back to us doesn’t happen again. Maybe that’s why an under the radar, unheralded run has helped. No-one really saw us as contenders. Now they do, and so do we.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Emergence of Darlow Softens Camp’s Legacy
It occurred to me that over the last decade or so we seem to have a set shelf life for goalkeepers before we move them on, or they become untenable in the team. It’s around 2 and a half to 3 years before a new cross over period develops.
Ever since Crossley was number 1 for near enough a decade, we seemed to have had a roll call of keepers who do well but ultimately move on at the end of a contract because of either their age or because they want more money or simply put, just aren’t doing it anymore.
Beasant was being shipped on because Platt wanted a younger man, he was succeeded by Darren Ward, who ultimately lost form and was shipped off to be Norwich sub keeper when they got promoted (which sounds awfully familiar) Gerrard had a decent longish stint of around 2 years before being temporarily replaced by Russell Hoult, he then left as he had high wages, before his eventual successor became Paul Smith. Smithy of course was main keeper for around 2, or so years before Camp came in, and the rest we know.
The challenge is now for Darlow to first become part of this pattern, and become part of the team permanently, that so far he seems capable of, and then creating a lasting legacy in the team. What would be nice is to break the cycle of being in the team for 2 or so years before needing to be replaced for whatever reason (usually lack of form)
Darlow hasn’t really been challenged yet in terms of having a torrid time in a game. His emergence is along the same period as the defence finding its feet again. That said, there were games under McLeish he was thrown in the deep end at, and yes we lost, but he never ashamed himself.
The first big challenge for him will be when he has a drop in form. The role of a goalkeeper is so founded on confidence that it will be interesting to see how he fairs. He seems confident, but then Smith did when he first arrived.
I heard it said by a pundit or ex player once a few years (so long ago I have no recollection who it was) that the best thing for any team was to know what that keeper was likely to do. If he stayed for crosses, then fine, as long as you knew he was going to stay you could clear up. If he came for the cross, then fine you knew he’d be there, the worst scenario was when you had an “eccentric” keeper, A Huelho Gomes or Manuel Almunia. A keeper you had no idea of they’d be coming, going, or whatever, and for a defender, then that creates the uncertainty. So to have a new keeper trying to forge his role, it must have been a tricky time for the defence.
But now Darlow is cemented in that role. I think many thought, myself included that there may have been pressure to put al-Rashidi in goal, and that Darlow was merely a stop gap whilst he acclimatised. That’s proven to be entirely incorrect. Darlow I would argue is almost undroppable at the moment. Ok he may have done better with the Wolves goal, but there has been no uncertainty in the crowd, and indeed he has made a couple of great stops that you’d argue Camp may not have.
The end of Camps period was a shame. His legacy of being a good Forest keeper for many years has been upset by his own ego, and therefore the fans perception. Make no mistake he wasn’t a bad keeper, but it would have been more glaring had Darlow, like Forests own form, not been a shining light during February. Because Darlow took the ground running, Camp has barely been missed. It had the potential to be so different. Just think of Barry Roche.
And it is a shame, Camp had the talent and potential to be our keeper for a long time and keep Darlow out the side. Camp however has his own demons, his ambition is what he cites, but at the end of the day it’s no-ones ambition to be Third Choice keeper at a mid rate Premier League Club. It comes down to money. And because of that Camp’s legacy is that he won’t be remembered for his keeping or his performances, but more his petulance at not being allowed to go to Swansea, and ultimately for leaving when he should have been first choice.
We have had a number of decent keepers at Forest, each with their own foibles and characteristics. Now we have the chance for a new keeper to forge a new legacy in goal. Darlow has the potential to hold on to this position for a few years. In fact the one obstacle to this I can see is Promotion to the Premier League, which even if he helps us achieve it would likely see Darlow replaced by another man. Like it or lump it, that would probably occur as we’d need an experienced head in there. That is a debate for another day, for the time being let’s just enjoy Darlow making the transition from budding youngster to First Team regular.
Monday, March 11, 2013
Forest In the Playoff Zone After Wolves Win
So we have a playoff berth. And now the battle becomes retaining that spot. It’s a battle that Middlesbrough and Leicester seem to be intent on losing, as their seasons continue to implode. Indeed, most of the top 6 apart from now Forest seemed intent at the weekend to throw away promotion.
I have no doubt over the next 2 months we will fall out, climb back into and yo-yo between being in the top 6 and out of. It all becomes crucial to remain in there come May. To be able to rob Leicester of it could be all the sweeter.
Wolves, although fighting relegation were not a bad side, and I echo what Dean Saunders said about the fact they easily could have got something out of it. What puzzles me is how a Championship team can leave Kevin Doyle and Steven Hunt on the bench in a struggle. These are quality players they don’t seem to be using, and I can only assume due to financial reasons with something like appearance related fees or contractual obligations. But it is bizarre to see quality players on the bench of a team struggling.
That said we took our chances and in a Boxing analogy probably took it on points. But when Wolves equalised it could easily have gone the other way. And as I have said repeatedly, under McLeish I have no doubt we would have crumbled, with self belief all but shot. Now we go up the other end and hit them right back.
It is also interesting that the midfield have suddenly become some free scoring, and again I have written at length about the new midfield set up and its allowing of a bit more creative freedom. And it is reaping rewards. Lansbury and Majewski are free scoring, McGugan also chipping in when he comes on. But the goals are also often lovely sweeping team moves, combinations of good play being finished well. Lansbury’s first goal was an example of this, many passes working together before Lansbury finished low into the corner from the edge of the area.
Wolves equaliser had its element of controversy about it. The corner they scored from came via a free kick awarded, although rightly for a foul, after the ref played an advantage which seemed to have passed to another passage of play before being pulled back. Now I’ve seen it a few times lately so maybe it’s a new directive, but there’s no way that play should have still been pulled back. Allowing an advantage is all well and good, but how long do you allow it to go on? Of course it depends on the passage of play, but to pull it back when he did was in my opinion wrong. And it resulted in a goal. Had we missed the playoffs by a point, well then this sort of thing adds up.
Anyway we needn’t have worried as we were back in front within 2 mins, with Lansbury finishing beautifully from outside the area. It’s been refreshing to see players rejuvenated under Davies, and Lansbury is a prime example. There were rumours of him being moved on under McLeish, but Davies seems to be able to motivate creative midfielders like no-one else.
The third goal was a wonderful but ever so typical McGugan goal, just a very well struck shot into the top corner from around 20 yards. Wolves at this stage were down to 10 men, when Ward felled Halford as last man and was given his marching orders.
And a word on Halford, playing up front for the first time for Forest, but a role he’s played in regularly elsewhere. His introduction up the field helped restructure Forest. We started well with 2 strikes, but when Dexter came off and we put a midfielder on it invited Wolves onto us too much. We need that balance of two up front to maintain possession up the field, as too often we simply didn’t have the bodies up front, Wolves could push forward and they looked good in that system. Halford coming on up front enabled us to keep the ball away from our own half and move forward. Halford being good in the air was able to win possession, as well as another good Cox performance with no goals. The lack of goals would be a worry, but Cox team contribution has been strong so in that regard it’s not. The goals will come again soon for the Irish international though. He still gets in the right positions and it’s not as if he’s playing badly.
So all in all another good day by the Trent that see’s us pop up in the playoff zone. The next 9 games will be huge, but what is happening now is Billy Davies is merely cementing himself as a club legend. If we stay in the top 6, anything beyond that really is a bonus, because of where we were at the start of February. Those McLeish days seem a life time ago.
I have no doubt over the next 2 months we will fall out, climb back into and yo-yo between being in the top 6 and out of. It all becomes crucial to remain in there come May. To be able to rob Leicester of it could be all the sweeter.
Wolves, although fighting relegation were not a bad side, and I echo what Dean Saunders said about the fact they easily could have got something out of it. What puzzles me is how a Championship team can leave Kevin Doyle and Steven Hunt on the bench in a struggle. These are quality players they don’t seem to be using, and I can only assume due to financial reasons with something like appearance related fees or contractual obligations. But it is bizarre to see quality players on the bench of a team struggling.
That said we took our chances and in a Boxing analogy probably took it on points. But when Wolves equalised it could easily have gone the other way. And as I have said repeatedly, under McLeish I have no doubt we would have crumbled, with self belief all but shot. Now we go up the other end and hit them right back.
It is also interesting that the midfield have suddenly become some free scoring, and again I have written at length about the new midfield set up and its allowing of a bit more creative freedom. And it is reaping rewards. Lansbury and Majewski are free scoring, McGugan also chipping in when he comes on. But the goals are also often lovely sweeping team moves, combinations of good play being finished well. Lansbury’s first goal was an example of this, many passes working together before Lansbury finished low into the corner from the edge of the area.
Wolves equaliser had its element of controversy about it. The corner they scored from came via a free kick awarded, although rightly for a foul, after the ref played an advantage which seemed to have passed to another passage of play before being pulled back. Now I’ve seen it a few times lately so maybe it’s a new directive, but there’s no way that play should have still been pulled back. Allowing an advantage is all well and good, but how long do you allow it to go on? Of course it depends on the passage of play, but to pull it back when he did was in my opinion wrong. And it resulted in a goal. Had we missed the playoffs by a point, well then this sort of thing adds up.
Anyway we needn’t have worried as we were back in front within 2 mins, with Lansbury finishing beautifully from outside the area. It’s been refreshing to see players rejuvenated under Davies, and Lansbury is a prime example. There were rumours of him being moved on under McLeish, but Davies seems to be able to motivate creative midfielders like no-one else.
The third goal was a wonderful but ever so typical McGugan goal, just a very well struck shot into the top corner from around 20 yards. Wolves at this stage were down to 10 men, when Ward felled Halford as last man and was given his marching orders.
And a word on Halford, playing up front for the first time for Forest, but a role he’s played in regularly elsewhere. His introduction up the field helped restructure Forest. We started well with 2 strikes, but when Dexter came off and we put a midfielder on it invited Wolves onto us too much. We need that balance of two up front to maintain possession up the field, as too often we simply didn’t have the bodies up front, Wolves could push forward and they looked good in that system. Halford coming on up front enabled us to keep the ball away from our own half and move forward. Halford being good in the air was able to win possession, as well as another good Cox performance with no goals. The lack of goals would be a worry, but Cox team contribution has been strong so in that regard it’s not. The goals will come again soon for the Irish international though. He still gets in the right positions and it’s not as if he’s playing badly.
So all in all another good day by the Trent that see’s us pop up in the playoff zone. The next 9 games will be huge, but what is happening now is Billy Davies is merely cementing himself as a club legend. If we stay in the top 6, anything beyond that really is a bonus, because of where we were at the start of February. Those McLeish days seem a life time ago.
Thursday, March 7, 2013
The Path to the Playoffs and Where Forest Need to Win (or Lose)
Ok, so every season isn’t the same, and this season might see a new record low or high points needed, or hell a different average, but we here at Forest 24-7 have been making some calculations to see what is needed to get promoted (hey, we are the form team in the division right now) or to just reach the lottery that is the playoffs.
What has been exposed is that on average we have left a charge for the automatic spots too late. In an average season even if we won all our remaining fixtures we would be left short points wise by a single one. Now Ok, this season might be different, but themes the facts.
Additionally I don’t think any fan with a modicum of sense is actually thinking we can currently go for top two. Maybe a few delusional extremists, but the large core know this is probably now beyond us.
But what of the playoffs? In an average season 73 points are needed based on the last 5 years. Two of those years 70 points is all that’s been required. We currently have 54. So on average that’s 19 points. Although could be as little as 16 points. Which is basically 3 points either way leeway. Based on going somewhere just below the bottom we reckon going for 20 points might be doable. But this is where things get trickier. That means winning 6, drawing 2 and allowing for 2 defeats. That would certainly be promotion form. Well let’s look at the remaining fixtures.
Nottm Forest V Wolves
Sat 9 Mar 15:00
Hull V Nottm Forest
Sat 16 Mar 15:00
Nottm Forest V Brighton
Sat 30 Mar 15:00
Burnley V Nottm Forest
Mon 1 Apr 15:00
Nottm Forest V Blackpool
Sat 6 Apr 15:00
Cardiff V Nottm Forest
Sat 13 Apr 15:00
Middlesbrough V Nottm Forest
Tue 16 Apr 19:45
Nottm Forest V Barnsley
Sat 20 Apr 15:00
Millwall V Nottm Forest
Sat 27 Apr 15:00
Nottm Forest V Leicester
Now the Championship being the Championship, it is very hard to predict who will do what and when. It is notorious for anyone being able to beat anyone, and as such bankers are not always what they seem. That said if we need 6 wins, you have to identify the fact we have 5 homes left. 2 of those against struggling opposition. This includes 2 promotion chasing teams, Brighton and potentially the last say Playoff shootout between us and Leicester. As I said for simplicity sake, these we will pencil in as wins for now
Leaving another win and 2 draws required. Now we have two winnable away games, Burnley and Millwall, but let’s say for arguments sake we only need win one, Milwall is the harder place to go. Middlesbrough and Cardiff are not on great form, but their league positions, as well as Hull suggest that between these 3 we could absorb the two defeats we potentially can absorb. However on the crest we are currently on and on paper, the Hull game is the one I’d fancy us to maybe get something from.
Similarly should we fail to beat Leicester or Brighton, then you could look to the Burnley & Millwall games as both being wins.
This is all as I say basically guesswork, and football is NEVER this easy. But it does show how possible it is, but also how perilously poised our hopes are hanging by small threads. But look at where we were a month ago compared to now, and this was unthinkable to sit down and work out. If we can’t dream what can we do? We could lose the easier games, end up beating Middlesbrough and Hull and throw other cats amongst the pigeons as we are then taking points off those teams we are competing against
Exciting times ahead.
Heres the Maths
What has been exposed is that on average we have left a charge for the automatic spots too late. In an average season even if we won all our remaining fixtures we would be left short points wise by a single one. Now Ok, this season might be different, but themes the facts.
Additionally I don’t think any fan with a modicum of sense is actually thinking we can currently go for top two. Maybe a few delusional extremists, but the large core know this is probably now beyond us.
But what of the playoffs? In an average season 73 points are needed based on the last 5 years. Two of those years 70 points is all that’s been required. We currently have 54. So on average that’s 19 points. Although could be as little as 16 points. Which is basically 3 points either way leeway. Based on going somewhere just below the bottom we reckon going for 20 points might be doable. But this is where things get trickier. That means winning 6, drawing 2 and allowing for 2 defeats. That would certainly be promotion form. Well let’s look at the remaining fixtures.
Nottm Forest V Wolves
Sat 9 Mar 15:00
Hull V Nottm Forest
Sat 16 Mar 15:00
Nottm Forest V Brighton
Sat 30 Mar 15:00
Burnley V Nottm Forest
Mon 1 Apr 15:00
Nottm Forest V Blackpool
Sat 6 Apr 15:00
Cardiff V Nottm Forest
Sat 13 Apr 15:00
Middlesbrough V Nottm Forest
Tue 16 Apr 19:45
Nottm Forest V Barnsley
Sat 20 Apr 15:00
Millwall V Nottm Forest
Sat 27 Apr 15:00
Nottm Forest V Leicester
Now the Championship being the Championship, it is very hard to predict who will do what and when. It is notorious for anyone being able to beat anyone, and as such bankers are not always what they seem. That said if we need 6 wins, you have to identify the fact we have 5 homes left. 2 of those against struggling opposition. This includes 2 promotion chasing teams, Brighton and potentially the last say Playoff shootout between us and Leicester. As I said for simplicity sake, these we will pencil in as wins for now
Leaving another win and 2 draws required. Now we have two winnable away games, Burnley and Millwall, but let’s say for arguments sake we only need win one, Milwall is the harder place to go. Middlesbrough and Cardiff are not on great form, but their league positions, as well as Hull suggest that between these 3 we could absorb the two defeats we potentially can absorb. However on the crest we are currently on and on paper, the Hull game is the one I’d fancy us to maybe get something from.
Similarly should we fail to beat Leicester or Brighton, then you could look to the Burnley & Millwall games as both being wins.
This is all as I say basically guesswork, and football is NEVER this easy. But it does show how possible it is, but also how perilously poised our hopes are hanging by small threads. But look at where we were a month ago compared to now, and this was unthinkable to sit down and work out. If we can’t dream what can we do? We could lose the easier games, end up beating Middlesbrough and Hull and throw other cats amongst the pigeons as we are then taking points off those teams we are competing against
Exciting times ahead.
Heres the Maths
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Resurgent Reds
Following the dual wins against Ipswich and Wednesday the renewed optimism and verve around the team is palpable. We face what could be a troublesome fixture against a struggling Wolves team on Saturday that could be a challenge as they scrap for survival, but the confidence that oozes from this team right now makes me doubt that. The Reds went to Sheffield, and beat Wednesday in a very convincing first half performance, and although by the end we were holding on a little, Wednesday didn’t really look like scoring. The same almost with a resolute Ipswich team. Hard to break down, but eventually we ground out the result.
The Owls get it completely wrong in the first half, and the two teams set ups saw Forest run rampant, and probably should have scored more than the now inevitable Majewski goal. It was a wonderful goal too, a great team move and unselfish play that led to Majewski having a comparatively easy slot home to put us one up and ultimately give us the three points.
The wonders of the current middle 3 being so interchangeable are that it makes them hard to mark as they can switch intermittently in their role. Though none are explicitly the central or the wide man, the set up sees Lansbury pull right and Majewski left, with Reid given space to play his passes to the two front men, with Guedioura coming in behind. But that’s simplifying it. They react to the pitch in front of them and pop up anywhere, making them very hard to defend. Certainly hard to man mark.
When Wednesday did get it right putting on a extra pacey wide man it forced us to adapt, to keep the midfielders in check to cover for the extra forwards and wide play, pulling Lansbury to help cover Jara, and Majewski to cover Cohen. Johnson meant that two pacey wide men were involved as well as Antonio, and between the two they created more forward play if not chances.
That said Darlow didn’t have a great deal to do, what he did he mostly did right, although his parry out at one point in second half could have caused a problem, the Reds always looked relatively comfortable. Even bringing on Lascelles to cover for Collins, though he could have given away a penalty for hand ball. There were a couple of calls for penalties for ball to hand type incidents and to be honest yes I have seen some of them given, but that doesn’t make them right.
A word on Collins, back in the side in Halford absence, he has become the easy man to dislike, in the way that Forest fans just have to have at least one unpopular player in the side. Gillett and Collins seemed to be archetypal of the loss of form in January/ February, and therefore have become the target of often quite unfair abuse. Collins of course was instrumental in the early season in settling down the defence in its infancy of being together, and yes he suffered a loss of form, but there's no need when he was announced in the team to be hyper critical and for some to even suggest they’d hoped he had played his last game for the club. And like it or not he is the club captain so was always going to get the arm band. For one he is a vocal contributor at the back. Too often people just think the longest serving player should be the captain, but that simply isn’t a great policy for choosing who should be the leader on the pitch. Davies is an expert at identifying his teams leaders, so if he stuck by Collins, and if he chose him to play, then get behind him,, Davies knows more than me or you, so if he thinks he should play, then play. Lascelles hasn’t played much competitive football this year, and is relatively inexperienced, to chuck him in there could well have been costly. And a few months at Stevenage don’t equate to experience before anyone tries to fire that one at me.
The Ipswich game was a tougher cookie to crack. That was until they decided to start getting themselves sent off. On an extremely misty night where from my Trent End seat the Bridgford End goal was quite often impossible to see clearly, the Reds eventually prevailed against 9 men Ipswich.
Ipswich had a call for penalty that some were adamant was in the box, following a foul I believe by Majewski. It was right on the border, and although their player fell in the box, the initial foul and contact was right on the edge. In my view the right call, I haven’t seen any replays though. Apparently the Sky Sports News reporter at the ground was adamant it was a penalty.
He was also adamant that martin shouldn’t have been sent off despite lashing out at Lansbury. Admittedly Lansbury did over react in going down, but it achieved the aim of getting Martin dismissed. He may or may not have gotten away with it had Henri not reacted. Basically had he stayed on feet the manager would not have been forced to act in the same way. That said Martin should have been booked for a challenge on Guedioura just before, which wasn’t even a free kick somehow.
And when the second red came for Stearman for what was a stupid yellow, it should have been easy. Ipswich though completely changed their team model to defend at all costs. The point which they’d have been pleased with was now all they could really hope for, and so they attempted to keep what they had. Credit to Mick McCarthy who has supported both decisions to a certain degree.
In that regard with a rigid rear guard to break down, and our incessant desire to pass the ball into the goal all night, the game required something different. Step forward Lewis McGugan. In a game with a packed defence we needed someone not afraid to take that shot on that might not be on. Guedioura aside, this time mostly shoot with clear opportunities. Majewski although scoring from range, is usually when he had space to compose, Lewis at his best doesn’t need much space, just that split second to see it’s on and it hit, like the goals from two years ago, often a shot out of nothing.
And with all that build up, a heavily deflected almost mis-hit left shot from McGugan won it. Leaving the keeper stranded, the ball went in. It should have been easily 3 points wrapped up. Go on and get a second whilst Ipswich have to come out of their shell a little. However we sat back and passed around in defence with minutes left. Indeed when 6 minutes went up I was almost fearing the worst. The old demons of not holding on, and giving up leads still haunt us. But it seems under Davies maybe they have been banished. Ipswich had chances, none clear cut, but chances. We simply tried to time waste despite a two man advantage rather than try to see the game out. Ipswich fans taunted this with cries of “we only have 9 men” and they were right to do so. We shouldn’t be holding on at home against Ipswich with 9 men, that’s a simple fact.
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